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Probability of going broke
Coin Betting ExpectationBias/Nonbiased Probability Puzzle QuestionQuestion about probability in infinite game of chanceWill you eventually run out of fair coins which either triplicate or disappear when flipped?Probability of a 50-50 Split When Flipping a Biased CoinExpected Value with Fair Coin Toss GameProbability Question for 2-Sided Coin (Verification)Probability to pick up biased coin
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$begingroup$
I have a biased coin that comes heads with probability $2/3$ and tails with probability $1/3$.
I start with $$1$, and you start with $$2$. If it comes up heads, you lose $$1$ and I gain $$1$. If it comes up tails, I lose $$1$ and you gain $$1$.
What's the probability that you lose all your money?
I tried to make a recurrence relation between $p$ but I got nowhere. Can someone please help me?
probability probability-theory
New contributor
astronomer6353 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
$endgroup$
add a comment
|
$begingroup$
I have a biased coin that comes heads with probability $2/3$ and tails with probability $1/3$.
I start with $$1$, and you start with $$2$. If it comes up heads, you lose $$1$ and I gain $$1$. If it comes up tails, I lose $$1$ and you gain $$1$.
What's the probability that you lose all your money?
I tried to make a recurrence relation between $p$ but I got nowhere. Can someone please help me?
probability probability-theory
New contributor
astronomer6353 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
$endgroup$
2
$begingroup$
There are only $4$ possible states. Player 2 has anywhere from $0$ to $3$ dollars. Let $p_k$ be the probability that player 2 goes broke, if he currently has $k$ dollars, $k=0,dots3$ and establish relations between the various $p_k.$
$endgroup$
– saulspatz
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
I'm probably going to be a mathematician so ... 100%!
$endgroup$
– Don Thousand
8 hours ago
add a comment
|
$begingroup$
I have a biased coin that comes heads with probability $2/3$ and tails with probability $1/3$.
I start with $$1$, and you start with $$2$. If it comes up heads, you lose $$1$ and I gain $$1$. If it comes up tails, I lose $$1$ and you gain $$1$.
What's the probability that you lose all your money?
I tried to make a recurrence relation between $p$ but I got nowhere. Can someone please help me?
probability probability-theory
New contributor
astronomer6353 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
$endgroup$
I have a biased coin that comes heads with probability $2/3$ and tails with probability $1/3$.
I start with $$1$, and you start with $$2$. If it comes up heads, you lose $$1$ and I gain $$1$. If it comes up tails, I lose $$1$ and you gain $$1$.
What's the probability that you lose all your money?
I tried to make a recurrence relation between $p$ but I got nowhere. Can someone please help me?
probability probability-theory
probability probability-theory
New contributor
astronomer6353 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
New contributor
astronomer6353 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
New contributor
astronomer6353 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
asked 8 hours ago
astronomer6353astronomer6353
1353 bronze badges
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New contributor
astronomer6353 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
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astronomer6353 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
2
$begingroup$
There are only $4$ possible states. Player 2 has anywhere from $0$ to $3$ dollars. Let $p_k$ be the probability that player 2 goes broke, if he currently has $k$ dollars, $k=0,dots3$ and establish relations between the various $p_k.$
$endgroup$
– saulspatz
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
I'm probably going to be a mathematician so ... 100%!
$endgroup$
– Don Thousand
8 hours ago
add a comment
|
2
$begingroup$
There are only $4$ possible states. Player 2 has anywhere from $0$ to $3$ dollars. Let $p_k$ be the probability that player 2 goes broke, if he currently has $k$ dollars, $k=0,dots3$ and establish relations between the various $p_k.$
$endgroup$
– saulspatz
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
I'm probably going to be a mathematician so ... 100%!
$endgroup$
– Don Thousand
8 hours ago
2
2
$begingroup$
There are only $4$ possible states. Player 2 has anywhere from $0$ to $3$ dollars. Let $p_k$ be the probability that player 2 goes broke, if he currently has $k$ dollars, $k=0,dots3$ and establish relations between the various $p_k.$
$endgroup$
– saulspatz
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
There are only $4$ possible states. Player 2 has anywhere from $0$ to $3$ dollars. Let $p_k$ be the probability that player 2 goes broke, if he currently has $k$ dollars, $k=0,dots3$ and establish relations between the various $p_k.$
$endgroup$
– saulspatz
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
I'm probably going to be a mathematician so ... 100%!
$endgroup$
– Don Thousand
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
I'm probably going to be a mathematician so ... 100%!
$endgroup$
– Don Thousand
8 hours ago
add a comment
|
4 Answers
4
active
oldest
votes
$begingroup$
Let $p_k$ be the probability that player $2$ goes broke, if he currently has $k$ dollars, for $k=0,1,2,3$. Then $p_0=1$ and $p_3=0$. We have $$beginalign
p_2&=pp_1+(1-p)p_3=pp_1\
p_1&=pp_0+(1-p)p_2=p+(1-p)pp_1endalign$$
Solving gives $$beginalign
p_1&=pover 1-p(1-p)\
p_2&=p^2over 1-p(1-p)endalign$$
Since player $2$ starts with $2$ dollars, we want the value of $p_2$ when $p=frac23$, which is $$4/9over7/9=boxedfrac47$$
$endgroup$
add a comment
|
$begingroup$
Your problem looks not well defined: does the game end when one of the two players goes broke? In that case, you are asking for the probability that player 1 will win.
The probability of the event "Player 2 will lose all of his money before Player 1 does" is the sum of the probabilities of the 'paths' (sorry for the sloppy notation!):
$a_0$ = (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)
$a_1$ = (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)- ...
$a_k$ = $[$(1,2) --> (2,1) --> $]^k$ --> (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)
Now, this translates to:
$$ P(p1; wins) = sum_k=0^inftybigg[bigg(frac23cdotfrac13bigg)^k bigg(frac23bigg)^2bigg] = frac97cdot frac49 = frac47 $$
$endgroup$
1
$begingroup$
Yes, the game ends when one player has no money.
$endgroup$
– astronomer6353
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
ok. If you have any question feel free to ask!
$endgroup$
– Rocco
8 hours ago
add a comment
|
$begingroup$
Hint
If $H$ is head and $T$ is the event tail, I denote $T_1=HH$, $T_2=HTHH$, $T_3=HTHTHH$, $T_4=HTHTHTHH$...
Then the event "you loose first" is $bigcup_n=1^infty T_n$.
$endgroup$
add a comment
|
$begingroup$
Assume that player 1 starts with $1, player 2 starts with $2, and the game ends if either player reaches 0.
Let $p_1$ be the probability that player 1 will win given that he has $1.
Let $p_2$ be the probability that player 1 will win given that he has $2.
Then
$$
p_1 = 2/3cdot p_2 + 1/3cdot 0 = 2/3 p_2,quadmathrmand
$$
$$
p_2 = 2/3cdot1 + 1/3cdot p_1 = (2+p_1)/3.
$$
By substitution,
$$ p_1 = 2/3cdot (2+p_1)/3 $$
$$ p_1 = (4+ 2p_1)/9 $$
$$ 9 p_1 = 4+ 2 p_1 $$
$$ 7 p_1 = 4 $$
$$ p_1 = 4/7. $$
$endgroup$
add a comment
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Your Answer
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4 Answers
4
active
oldest
votes
4 Answers
4
active
oldest
votes
active
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votes
active
oldest
votes
$begingroup$
Let $p_k$ be the probability that player $2$ goes broke, if he currently has $k$ dollars, for $k=0,1,2,3$. Then $p_0=1$ and $p_3=0$. We have $$beginalign
p_2&=pp_1+(1-p)p_3=pp_1\
p_1&=pp_0+(1-p)p_2=p+(1-p)pp_1endalign$$
Solving gives $$beginalign
p_1&=pover 1-p(1-p)\
p_2&=p^2over 1-p(1-p)endalign$$
Since player $2$ starts with $2$ dollars, we want the value of $p_2$ when $p=frac23$, which is $$4/9over7/9=boxedfrac47$$
$endgroup$
add a comment
|
$begingroup$
Let $p_k$ be the probability that player $2$ goes broke, if he currently has $k$ dollars, for $k=0,1,2,3$. Then $p_0=1$ and $p_3=0$. We have $$beginalign
p_2&=pp_1+(1-p)p_3=pp_1\
p_1&=pp_0+(1-p)p_2=p+(1-p)pp_1endalign$$
Solving gives $$beginalign
p_1&=pover 1-p(1-p)\
p_2&=p^2over 1-p(1-p)endalign$$
Since player $2$ starts with $2$ dollars, we want the value of $p_2$ when $p=frac23$, which is $$4/9over7/9=boxedfrac47$$
$endgroup$
add a comment
|
$begingroup$
Let $p_k$ be the probability that player $2$ goes broke, if he currently has $k$ dollars, for $k=0,1,2,3$. Then $p_0=1$ and $p_3=0$. We have $$beginalign
p_2&=pp_1+(1-p)p_3=pp_1\
p_1&=pp_0+(1-p)p_2=p+(1-p)pp_1endalign$$
Solving gives $$beginalign
p_1&=pover 1-p(1-p)\
p_2&=p^2over 1-p(1-p)endalign$$
Since player $2$ starts with $2$ dollars, we want the value of $p_2$ when $p=frac23$, which is $$4/9over7/9=boxedfrac47$$
$endgroup$
Let $p_k$ be the probability that player $2$ goes broke, if he currently has $k$ dollars, for $k=0,1,2,3$. Then $p_0=1$ and $p_3=0$. We have $$beginalign
p_2&=pp_1+(1-p)p_3=pp_1\
p_1&=pp_0+(1-p)p_2=p+(1-p)pp_1endalign$$
Solving gives $$beginalign
p_1&=pover 1-p(1-p)\
p_2&=p^2over 1-p(1-p)endalign$$
Since player $2$ starts with $2$ dollars, we want the value of $p_2$ when $p=frac23$, which is $$4/9over7/9=boxedfrac47$$
answered 8 hours ago
saulspatzsaulspatz
24.4k4 gold badges16 silver badges41 bronze badges
24.4k4 gold badges16 silver badges41 bronze badges
add a comment
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add a comment
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$begingroup$
Your problem looks not well defined: does the game end when one of the two players goes broke? In that case, you are asking for the probability that player 1 will win.
The probability of the event "Player 2 will lose all of his money before Player 1 does" is the sum of the probabilities of the 'paths' (sorry for the sloppy notation!):
$a_0$ = (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)
$a_1$ = (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)- ...
$a_k$ = $[$(1,2) --> (2,1) --> $]^k$ --> (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)
Now, this translates to:
$$ P(p1; wins) = sum_k=0^inftybigg[bigg(frac23cdotfrac13bigg)^k bigg(frac23bigg)^2bigg] = frac97cdot frac49 = frac47 $$
$endgroup$
1
$begingroup$
Yes, the game ends when one player has no money.
$endgroup$
– astronomer6353
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
ok. If you have any question feel free to ask!
$endgroup$
– Rocco
8 hours ago
add a comment
|
$begingroup$
Your problem looks not well defined: does the game end when one of the two players goes broke? In that case, you are asking for the probability that player 1 will win.
The probability of the event "Player 2 will lose all of his money before Player 1 does" is the sum of the probabilities of the 'paths' (sorry for the sloppy notation!):
$a_0$ = (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)
$a_1$ = (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)- ...
$a_k$ = $[$(1,2) --> (2,1) --> $]^k$ --> (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)
Now, this translates to:
$$ P(p1; wins) = sum_k=0^inftybigg[bigg(frac23cdotfrac13bigg)^k bigg(frac23bigg)^2bigg] = frac97cdot frac49 = frac47 $$
$endgroup$
1
$begingroup$
Yes, the game ends when one player has no money.
$endgroup$
– astronomer6353
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
ok. If you have any question feel free to ask!
$endgroup$
– Rocco
8 hours ago
add a comment
|
$begingroup$
Your problem looks not well defined: does the game end when one of the two players goes broke? In that case, you are asking for the probability that player 1 will win.
The probability of the event "Player 2 will lose all of his money before Player 1 does" is the sum of the probabilities of the 'paths' (sorry for the sloppy notation!):
$a_0$ = (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)
$a_1$ = (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)- ...
$a_k$ = $[$(1,2) --> (2,1) --> $]^k$ --> (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)
Now, this translates to:
$$ P(p1; wins) = sum_k=0^inftybigg[bigg(frac23cdotfrac13bigg)^k bigg(frac23bigg)^2bigg] = frac97cdot frac49 = frac47 $$
$endgroup$
Your problem looks not well defined: does the game end when one of the two players goes broke? In that case, you are asking for the probability that player 1 will win.
The probability of the event "Player 2 will lose all of his money before Player 1 does" is the sum of the probabilities of the 'paths' (sorry for the sloppy notation!):
$a_0$ = (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)
$a_1$ = (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)- ...
$a_k$ = $[$(1,2) --> (2,1) --> $]^k$ --> (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)
Now, this translates to:
$$ P(p1; wins) = sum_k=0^inftybigg[bigg(frac23cdotfrac13bigg)^k bigg(frac23bigg)^2bigg] = frac97cdot frac49 = frac47 $$
answered 8 hours ago
Rocco Rocco
3291 silver badge11 bronze badges
3291 silver badge11 bronze badges
1
$begingroup$
Yes, the game ends when one player has no money.
$endgroup$
– astronomer6353
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
ok. If you have any question feel free to ask!
$endgroup$
– Rocco
8 hours ago
add a comment
|
1
$begingroup$
Yes, the game ends when one player has no money.
$endgroup$
– astronomer6353
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
ok. If you have any question feel free to ask!
$endgroup$
– Rocco
8 hours ago
1
1
$begingroup$
Yes, the game ends when one player has no money.
$endgroup$
– astronomer6353
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
Yes, the game ends when one player has no money.
$endgroup$
– astronomer6353
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
ok. If you have any question feel free to ask!
$endgroup$
– Rocco
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
ok. If you have any question feel free to ask!
$endgroup$
– Rocco
8 hours ago
add a comment
|
$begingroup$
Hint
If $H$ is head and $T$ is the event tail, I denote $T_1=HH$, $T_2=HTHH$, $T_3=HTHTHH$, $T_4=HTHTHTHH$...
Then the event "you loose first" is $bigcup_n=1^infty T_n$.
$endgroup$
add a comment
|
$begingroup$
Hint
If $H$ is head and $T$ is the event tail, I denote $T_1=HH$, $T_2=HTHH$, $T_3=HTHTHH$, $T_4=HTHTHTHH$...
Then the event "you loose first" is $bigcup_n=1^infty T_n$.
$endgroup$
add a comment
|
$begingroup$
Hint
If $H$ is head and $T$ is the event tail, I denote $T_1=HH$, $T_2=HTHH$, $T_3=HTHTHH$, $T_4=HTHTHTHH$...
Then the event "you loose first" is $bigcup_n=1^infty T_n$.
$endgroup$
Hint
If $H$ is head and $T$ is the event tail, I denote $T_1=HH$, $T_2=HTHH$, $T_3=HTHTHH$, $T_4=HTHTHTHH$...
Then the event "you loose first" is $bigcup_n=1^infty T_n$.
edited 8 hours ago
answered 8 hours ago
SurbSurb
42.9k9 gold badges46 silver badges86 bronze badges
42.9k9 gold badges46 silver badges86 bronze badges
add a comment
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add a comment
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$begingroup$
Assume that player 1 starts with $1, player 2 starts with $2, and the game ends if either player reaches 0.
Let $p_1$ be the probability that player 1 will win given that he has $1.
Let $p_2$ be the probability that player 1 will win given that he has $2.
Then
$$
p_1 = 2/3cdot p_2 + 1/3cdot 0 = 2/3 p_2,quadmathrmand
$$
$$
p_2 = 2/3cdot1 + 1/3cdot p_1 = (2+p_1)/3.
$$
By substitution,
$$ p_1 = 2/3cdot (2+p_1)/3 $$
$$ p_1 = (4+ 2p_1)/9 $$
$$ 9 p_1 = 4+ 2 p_1 $$
$$ 7 p_1 = 4 $$
$$ p_1 = 4/7. $$
$endgroup$
add a comment
|
$begingroup$
Assume that player 1 starts with $1, player 2 starts with $2, and the game ends if either player reaches 0.
Let $p_1$ be the probability that player 1 will win given that he has $1.
Let $p_2$ be the probability that player 1 will win given that he has $2.
Then
$$
p_1 = 2/3cdot p_2 + 1/3cdot 0 = 2/3 p_2,quadmathrmand
$$
$$
p_2 = 2/3cdot1 + 1/3cdot p_1 = (2+p_1)/3.
$$
By substitution,
$$ p_1 = 2/3cdot (2+p_1)/3 $$
$$ p_1 = (4+ 2p_1)/9 $$
$$ 9 p_1 = 4+ 2 p_1 $$
$$ 7 p_1 = 4 $$
$$ p_1 = 4/7. $$
$endgroup$
add a comment
|
$begingroup$
Assume that player 1 starts with $1, player 2 starts with $2, and the game ends if either player reaches 0.
Let $p_1$ be the probability that player 1 will win given that he has $1.
Let $p_2$ be the probability that player 1 will win given that he has $2.
Then
$$
p_1 = 2/3cdot p_2 + 1/3cdot 0 = 2/3 p_2,quadmathrmand
$$
$$
p_2 = 2/3cdot1 + 1/3cdot p_1 = (2+p_1)/3.
$$
By substitution,
$$ p_1 = 2/3cdot (2+p_1)/3 $$
$$ p_1 = (4+ 2p_1)/9 $$
$$ 9 p_1 = 4+ 2 p_1 $$
$$ 7 p_1 = 4 $$
$$ p_1 = 4/7. $$
$endgroup$
Assume that player 1 starts with $1, player 2 starts with $2, and the game ends if either player reaches 0.
Let $p_1$ be the probability that player 1 will win given that he has $1.
Let $p_2$ be the probability that player 1 will win given that he has $2.
Then
$$
p_1 = 2/3cdot p_2 + 1/3cdot 0 = 2/3 p_2,quadmathrmand
$$
$$
p_2 = 2/3cdot1 + 1/3cdot p_1 = (2+p_1)/3.
$$
By substitution,
$$ p_1 = 2/3cdot (2+p_1)/3 $$
$$ p_1 = (4+ 2p_1)/9 $$
$$ 9 p_1 = 4+ 2 p_1 $$
$$ 7 p_1 = 4 $$
$$ p_1 = 4/7. $$
answered 8 hours ago
irchansirchans
1,3904 silver badges14 bronze badges
1,3904 silver badges14 bronze badges
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|
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astronomer6353 is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
astronomer6353 is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
astronomer6353 is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
astronomer6353 is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
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2
$begingroup$
There are only $4$ possible states. Player 2 has anywhere from $0$ to $3$ dollars. Let $p_k$ be the probability that player 2 goes broke, if he currently has $k$ dollars, $k=0,dots3$ and establish relations between the various $p_k.$
$endgroup$
– saulspatz
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
I'm probably going to be a mathematician so ... 100%!
$endgroup$
– Don Thousand
8 hours ago