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Probability of going broke


Coin Betting ExpectationBias/Nonbiased Probability Puzzle QuestionQuestion about probability in infinite game of chanceWill you eventually run out of fair coins which either triplicate or disappear when flipped?Probability of a 50-50 Split When Flipping a Biased CoinExpected Value with Fair Coin Toss GameProbability Question for 2-Sided Coin (Verification)Probability to pick up biased coin






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2












$begingroup$


I have a biased coin that comes heads with probability $2/3$ and tails with probability $1/3$.



I start with $$1$, and you start with $$2$. If it comes up heads, you lose $$1$ and I gain $$1$. If it comes up tails, I lose $$1$ and you gain $$1$.



What's the probability that you lose all your money?



I tried to make a recurrence relation between $p$ but I got nowhere. Can someone please help me?










share|cite|improve this question







New contributor



astronomer6353 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.






$endgroup$









  • 2




    $begingroup$
    There are only $4$ possible states. Player 2 has anywhere from $0$ to $3$ dollars. Let $p_k$ be the probability that player 2 goes broke, if he currently has $k$ dollars, $k=0,dots3$ and establish relations between the various $p_k.$
    $endgroup$
    – saulspatz
    8 hours ago











  • $begingroup$
    I'm probably going to be a mathematician so ... 100%!
    $endgroup$
    – Don Thousand
    8 hours ago

















2












$begingroup$


I have a biased coin that comes heads with probability $2/3$ and tails with probability $1/3$.



I start with $$1$, and you start with $$2$. If it comes up heads, you lose $$1$ and I gain $$1$. If it comes up tails, I lose $$1$ and you gain $$1$.



What's the probability that you lose all your money?



I tried to make a recurrence relation between $p$ but I got nowhere. Can someone please help me?










share|cite|improve this question







New contributor



astronomer6353 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.






$endgroup$









  • 2




    $begingroup$
    There are only $4$ possible states. Player 2 has anywhere from $0$ to $3$ dollars. Let $p_k$ be the probability that player 2 goes broke, if he currently has $k$ dollars, $k=0,dots3$ and establish relations between the various $p_k.$
    $endgroup$
    – saulspatz
    8 hours ago











  • $begingroup$
    I'm probably going to be a mathematician so ... 100%!
    $endgroup$
    – Don Thousand
    8 hours ago













2












2








2


1



$begingroup$


I have a biased coin that comes heads with probability $2/3$ and tails with probability $1/3$.



I start with $$1$, and you start with $$2$. If it comes up heads, you lose $$1$ and I gain $$1$. If it comes up tails, I lose $$1$ and you gain $$1$.



What's the probability that you lose all your money?



I tried to make a recurrence relation between $p$ but I got nowhere. Can someone please help me?










share|cite|improve this question







New contributor



astronomer6353 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.






$endgroup$




I have a biased coin that comes heads with probability $2/3$ and tails with probability $1/3$.



I start with $$1$, and you start with $$2$. If it comes up heads, you lose $$1$ and I gain $$1$. If it comes up tails, I lose $$1$ and you gain $$1$.



What's the probability that you lose all your money?



I tried to make a recurrence relation between $p$ but I got nowhere. Can someone please help me?







probability probability-theory






share|cite|improve this question







New contributor



astronomer6353 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.










share|cite|improve this question







New contributor



astronomer6353 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.








share|cite|improve this question




share|cite|improve this question






New contributor



astronomer6353 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.








asked 8 hours ago









astronomer6353astronomer6353

1353 bronze badges




1353 bronze badges




New contributor



astronomer6353 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.




New contributor




astronomer6353 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.












  • 2




    $begingroup$
    There are only $4$ possible states. Player 2 has anywhere from $0$ to $3$ dollars. Let $p_k$ be the probability that player 2 goes broke, if he currently has $k$ dollars, $k=0,dots3$ and establish relations between the various $p_k.$
    $endgroup$
    – saulspatz
    8 hours ago











  • $begingroup$
    I'm probably going to be a mathematician so ... 100%!
    $endgroup$
    – Don Thousand
    8 hours ago












  • 2




    $begingroup$
    There are only $4$ possible states. Player 2 has anywhere from $0$ to $3$ dollars. Let $p_k$ be the probability that player 2 goes broke, if he currently has $k$ dollars, $k=0,dots3$ and establish relations between the various $p_k.$
    $endgroup$
    – saulspatz
    8 hours ago











  • $begingroup$
    I'm probably going to be a mathematician so ... 100%!
    $endgroup$
    – Don Thousand
    8 hours ago







2




2




$begingroup$
There are only $4$ possible states. Player 2 has anywhere from $0$ to $3$ dollars. Let $p_k$ be the probability that player 2 goes broke, if he currently has $k$ dollars, $k=0,dots3$ and establish relations between the various $p_k.$
$endgroup$
– saulspatz
8 hours ago





$begingroup$
There are only $4$ possible states. Player 2 has anywhere from $0$ to $3$ dollars. Let $p_k$ be the probability that player 2 goes broke, if he currently has $k$ dollars, $k=0,dots3$ and establish relations between the various $p_k.$
$endgroup$
– saulspatz
8 hours ago













$begingroup$
I'm probably going to be a mathematician so ... 100%!
$endgroup$
– Don Thousand
8 hours ago




$begingroup$
I'm probably going to be a mathematician so ... 100%!
$endgroup$
– Don Thousand
8 hours ago










4 Answers
4






active

oldest

votes


















3














$begingroup$

Let $p_k$ be the probability that player $2$ goes broke, if he currently has $k$ dollars, for $k=0,1,2,3$. Then $p_0=1$ and $p_3=0$. We have $$beginalign
p_2&=pp_1+(1-p)p_3=pp_1\
p_1&=pp_0+(1-p)p_2=p+(1-p)pp_1endalign$$

Solving gives $$beginalign
p_1&=pover 1-p(1-p)\
p_2&=p^2over 1-p(1-p)endalign$$

Since player $2$ starts with $2$ dollars, we want the value of $p_2$ when $p=frac23$, which is $$4/9over7/9=boxedfrac47$$






share|cite|improve this answer









$endgroup$






















    2














    $begingroup$

    Your problem looks not well defined: does the game end when one of the two players goes broke? In that case, you are asking for the probability that player 1 will win.



    The probability of the event "Player 2 will lose all of his money before Player 1 does" is the sum of the probabilities of the 'paths' (sorry for the sloppy notation!):




    • $a_0$ = (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)


    • $a_1$ = (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)

    • ...


    • $a_k$ = $[$(1,2) --> (2,1) --> $]^k$ --> (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)

    Now, this translates to:
    $$ P(p1; wins) = sum_k=0^inftybigg[bigg(frac23cdotfrac13bigg)^k bigg(frac23bigg)^2bigg] = frac97cdot frac49 = frac47 $$






    share|cite|improve this answer









    $endgroup$










    • 1




      $begingroup$
      Yes, the game ends when one player has no money.
      $endgroup$
      – astronomer6353
      8 hours ago










    • $begingroup$
      ok. If you have any question feel free to ask!
      $endgroup$
      – Rocco
      8 hours ago


















    2














    $begingroup$

    Hint



    If $H$ is head and $T$ is the event tail, I denote $T_1=HH$, $T_2=HTHH$, $T_3=HTHTHH$, $T_4=HTHTHTHH$...



    Then the event "you loose first" is $bigcup_n=1^infty T_n$.






    share|cite|improve this answer











    $endgroup$






















      0














      $begingroup$

      Assume that player 1 starts with $1, player 2 starts with $2, and the game ends if either player reaches 0.



      Let $p_1$ be the probability that player 1 will win given that he has $1.
      Let $p_2$ be the probability that player 1 will win given that he has $2.



      Then
      $$
      p_1 = 2/3cdot p_2 + 1/3cdot 0 = 2/3 p_2,quadmathrmand
      $$

      $$
      p_2 = 2/3cdot1 + 1/3cdot p_1 = (2+p_1)/3.
      $$

      By substitution,
      $$ p_1 = 2/3cdot (2+p_1)/3 $$
      $$ p_1 = (4+ 2p_1)/9 $$
      $$ 9 p_1 = 4+ 2 p_1 $$
      $$ 7 p_1 = 4 $$
      $$ p_1 = 4/7. $$






      share|cite|improve this answer









      $endgroup$
















        Your Answer








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        4 Answers
        4






        active

        oldest

        votes








        4 Answers
        4






        active

        oldest

        votes









        active

        oldest

        votes






        active

        oldest

        votes









        3














        $begingroup$

        Let $p_k$ be the probability that player $2$ goes broke, if he currently has $k$ dollars, for $k=0,1,2,3$. Then $p_0=1$ and $p_3=0$. We have $$beginalign
        p_2&=pp_1+(1-p)p_3=pp_1\
        p_1&=pp_0+(1-p)p_2=p+(1-p)pp_1endalign$$

        Solving gives $$beginalign
        p_1&=pover 1-p(1-p)\
        p_2&=p^2over 1-p(1-p)endalign$$

        Since player $2$ starts with $2$ dollars, we want the value of $p_2$ when $p=frac23$, which is $$4/9over7/9=boxedfrac47$$






        share|cite|improve this answer









        $endgroup$



















          3














          $begingroup$

          Let $p_k$ be the probability that player $2$ goes broke, if he currently has $k$ dollars, for $k=0,1,2,3$. Then $p_0=1$ and $p_3=0$. We have $$beginalign
          p_2&=pp_1+(1-p)p_3=pp_1\
          p_1&=pp_0+(1-p)p_2=p+(1-p)pp_1endalign$$

          Solving gives $$beginalign
          p_1&=pover 1-p(1-p)\
          p_2&=p^2over 1-p(1-p)endalign$$

          Since player $2$ starts with $2$ dollars, we want the value of $p_2$ when $p=frac23$, which is $$4/9over7/9=boxedfrac47$$






          share|cite|improve this answer









          $endgroup$

















            3














            3










            3







            $begingroup$

            Let $p_k$ be the probability that player $2$ goes broke, if he currently has $k$ dollars, for $k=0,1,2,3$. Then $p_0=1$ and $p_3=0$. We have $$beginalign
            p_2&=pp_1+(1-p)p_3=pp_1\
            p_1&=pp_0+(1-p)p_2=p+(1-p)pp_1endalign$$

            Solving gives $$beginalign
            p_1&=pover 1-p(1-p)\
            p_2&=p^2over 1-p(1-p)endalign$$

            Since player $2$ starts with $2$ dollars, we want the value of $p_2$ when $p=frac23$, which is $$4/9over7/9=boxedfrac47$$






            share|cite|improve this answer









            $endgroup$



            Let $p_k$ be the probability that player $2$ goes broke, if he currently has $k$ dollars, for $k=0,1,2,3$. Then $p_0=1$ and $p_3=0$. We have $$beginalign
            p_2&=pp_1+(1-p)p_3=pp_1\
            p_1&=pp_0+(1-p)p_2=p+(1-p)pp_1endalign$$

            Solving gives $$beginalign
            p_1&=pover 1-p(1-p)\
            p_2&=p^2over 1-p(1-p)endalign$$

            Since player $2$ starts with $2$ dollars, we want the value of $p_2$ when $p=frac23$, which is $$4/9over7/9=boxedfrac47$$







            share|cite|improve this answer












            share|cite|improve this answer



            share|cite|improve this answer










            answered 8 hours ago









            saulspatzsaulspatz

            24.4k4 gold badges16 silver badges41 bronze badges




            24.4k4 gold badges16 silver badges41 bronze badges


























                2














                $begingroup$

                Your problem looks not well defined: does the game end when one of the two players goes broke? In that case, you are asking for the probability that player 1 will win.



                The probability of the event "Player 2 will lose all of his money before Player 1 does" is the sum of the probabilities of the 'paths' (sorry for the sloppy notation!):




                • $a_0$ = (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)


                • $a_1$ = (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)

                • ...


                • $a_k$ = $[$(1,2) --> (2,1) --> $]^k$ --> (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)

                Now, this translates to:
                $$ P(p1; wins) = sum_k=0^inftybigg[bigg(frac23cdotfrac13bigg)^k bigg(frac23bigg)^2bigg] = frac97cdot frac49 = frac47 $$






                share|cite|improve this answer









                $endgroup$










                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  Yes, the game ends when one player has no money.
                  $endgroup$
                  – astronomer6353
                  8 hours ago










                • $begingroup$
                  ok. If you have any question feel free to ask!
                  $endgroup$
                  – Rocco
                  8 hours ago















                2














                $begingroup$

                Your problem looks not well defined: does the game end when one of the two players goes broke? In that case, you are asking for the probability that player 1 will win.



                The probability of the event "Player 2 will lose all of his money before Player 1 does" is the sum of the probabilities of the 'paths' (sorry for the sloppy notation!):




                • $a_0$ = (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)


                • $a_1$ = (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)

                • ...


                • $a_k$ = $[$(1,2) --> (2,1) --> $]^k$ --> (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)

                Now, this translates to:
                $$ P(p1; wins) = sum_k=0^inftybigg[bigg(frac23cdotfrac13bigg)^k bigg(frac23bigg)^2bigg] = frac97cdot frac49 = frac47 $$






                share|cite|improve this answer









                $endgroup$










                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  Yes, the game ends when one player has no money.
                  $endgroup$
                  – astronomer6353
                  8 hours ago










                • $begingroup$
                  ok. If you have any question feel free to ask!
                  $endgroup$
                  – Rocco
                  8 hours ago













                2














                2










                2







                $begingroup$

                Your problem looks not well defined: does the game end when one of the two players goes broke? In that case, you are asking for the probability that player 1 will win.



                The probability of the event "Player 2 will lose all of his money before Player 1 does" is the sum of the probabilities of the 'paths' (sorry for the sloppy notation!):




                • $a_0$ = (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)


                • $a_1$ = (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)

                • ...


                • $a_k$ = $[$(1,2) --> (2,1) --> $]^k$ --> (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)

                Now, this translates to:
                $$ P(p1; wins) = sum_k=0^inftybigg[bigg(frac23cdotfrac13bigg)^k bigg(frac23bigg)^2bigg] = frac97cdot frac49 = frac47 $$






                share|cite|improve this answer









                $endgroup$



                Your problem looks not well defined: does the game end when one of the two players goes broke? In that case, you are asking for the probability that player 1 will win.



                The probability of the event "Player 2 will lose all of his money before Player 1 does" is the sum of the probabilities of the 'paths' (sorry for the sloppy notation!):




                • $a_0$ = (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)


                • $a_1$ = (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)

                • ...


                • $a_k$ = $[$(1,2) --> (2,1) --> $]^k$ --> (1,2) --> (2,1) --> (3,0)

                Now, this translates to:
                $$ P(p1; wins) = sum_k=0^inftybigg[bigg(frac23cdotfrac13bigg)^k bigg(frac23bigg)^2bigg] = frac97cdot frac49 = frac47 $$







                share|cite|improve this answer












                share|cite|improve this answer



                share|cite|improve this answer










                answered 8 hours ago









                Rocco Rocco

                3291 silver badge11 bronze badges




                3291 silver badge11 bronze badges










                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  Yes, the game ends when one player has no money.
                  $endgroup$
                  – astronomer6353
                  8 hours ago










                • $begingroup$
                  ok. If you have any question feel free to ask!
                  $endgroup$
                  – Rocco
                  8 hours ago












                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  Yes, the game ends when one player has no money.
                  $endgroup$
                  – astronomer6353
                  8 hours ago










                • $begingroup$
                  ok. If you have any question feel free to ask!
                  $endgroup$
                  – Rocco
                  8 hours ago







                1




                1




                $begingroup$
                Yes, the game ends when one player has no money.
                $endgroup$
                – astronomer6353
                8 hours ago




                $begingroup$
                Yes, the game ends when one player has no money.
                $endgroup$
                – astronomer6353
                8 hours ago












                $begingroup$
                ok. If you have any question feel free to ask!
                $endgroup$
                – Rocco
                8 hours ago




                $begingroup$
                ok. If you have any question feel free to ask!
                $endgroup$
                – Rocco
                8 hours ago











                2














                $begingroup$

                Hint



                If $H$ is head and $T$ is the event tail, I denote $T_1=HH$, $T_2=HTHH$, $T_3=HTHTHH$, $T_4=HTHTHTHH$...



                Then the event "you loose first" is $bigcup_n=1^infty T_n$.






                share|cite|improve this answer











                $endgroup$



















                  2














                  $begingroup$

                  Hint



                  If $H$ is head and $T$ is the event tail, I denote $T_1=HH$, $T_2=HTHH$, $T_3=HTHTHH$, $T_4=HTHTHTHH$...



                  Then the event "you loose first" is $bigcup_n=1^infty T_n$.






                  share|cite|improve this answer











                  $endgroup$

















                    2














                    2










                    2







                    $begingroup$

                    Hint



                    If $H$ is head and $T$ is the event tail, I denote $T_1=HH$, $T_2=HTHH$, $T_3=HTHTHH$, $T_4=HTHTHTHH$...



                    Then the event "you loose first" is $bigcup_n=1^infty T_n$.






                    share|cite|improve this answer











                    $endgroup$



                    Hint



                    If $H$ is head and $T$ is the event tail, I denote $T_1=HH$, $T_2=HTHH$, $T_3=HTHTHH$, $T_4=HTHTHTHH$...



                    Then the event "you loose first" is $bigcup_n=1^infty T_n$.







                    share|cite|improve this answer














                    share|cite|improve this answer



                    share|cite|improve this answer








                    edited 8 hours ago

























                    answered 8 hours ago









                    SurbSurb

                    42.9k9 gold badges46 silver badges86 bronze badges




                    42.9k9 gold badges46 silver badges86 bronze badges
























                        0














                        $begingroup$

                        Assume that player 1 starts with $1, player 2 starts with $2, and the game ends if either player reaches 0.



                        Let $p_1$ be the probability that player 1 will win given that he has $1.
                        Let $p_2$ be the probability that player 1 will win given that he has $2.



                        Then
                        $$
                        p_1 = 2/3cdot p_2 + 1/3cdot 0 = 2/3 p_2,quadmathrmand
                        $$

                        $$
                        p_2 = 2/3cdot1 + 1/3cdot p_1 = (2+p_1)/3.
                        $$

                        By substitution,
                        $$ p_1 = 2/3cdot (2+p_1)/3 $$
                        $$ p_1 = (4+ 2p_1)/9 $$
                        $$ 9 p_1 = 4+ 2 p_1 $$
                        $$ 7 p_1 = 4 $$
                        $$ p_1 = 4/7. $$






                        share|cite|improve this answer









                        $endgroup$



















                          0














                          $begingroup$

                          Assume that player 1 starts with $1, player 2 starts with $2, and the game ends if either player reaches 0.



                          Let $p_1$ be the probability that player 1 will win given that he has $1.
                          Let $p_2$ be the probability that player 1 will win given that he has $2.



                          Then
                          $$
                          p_1 = 2/3cdot p_2 + 1/3cdot 0 = 2/3 p_2,quadmathrmand
                          $$

                          $$
                          p_2 = 2/3cdot1 + 1/3cdot p_1 = (2+p_1)/3.
                          $$

                          By substitution,
                          $$ p_1 = 2/3cdot (2+p_1)/3 $$
                          $$ p_1 = (4+ 2p_1)/9 $$
                          $$ 9 p_1 = 4+ 2 p_1 $$
                          $$ 7 p_1 = 4 $$
                          $$ p_1 = 4/7. $$






                          share|cite|improve this answer









                          $endgroup$

















                            0














                            0










                            0







                            $begingroup$

                            Assume that player 1 starts with $1, player 2 starts with $2, and the game ends if either player reaches 0.



                            Let $p_1$ be the probability that player 1 will win given that he has $1.
                            Let $p_2$ be the probability that player 1 will win given that he has $2.



                            Then
                            $$
                            p_1 = 2/3cdot p_2 + 1/3cdot 0 = 2/3 p_2,quadmathrmand
                            $$

                            $$
                            p_2 = 2/3cdot1 + 1/3cdot p_1 = (2+p_1)/3.
                            $$

                            By substitution,
                            $$ p_1 = 2/3cdot (2+p_1)/3 $$
                            $$ p_1 = (4+ 2p_1)/9 $$
                            $$ 9 p_1 = 4+ 2 p_1 $$
                            $$ 7 p_1 = 4 $$
                            $$ p_1 = 4/7. $$






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                            $endgroup$



                            Assume that player 1 starts with $1, player 2 starts with $2, and the game ends if either player reaches 0.



                            Let $p_1$ be the probability that player 1 will win given that he has $1.
                            Let $p_2$ be the probability that player 1 will win given that he has $2.



                            Then
                            $$
                            p_1 = 2/3cdot p_2 + 1/3cdot 0 = 2/3 p_2,quadmathrmand
                            $$

                            $$
                            p_2 = 2/3cdot1 + 1/3cdot p_1 = (2+p_1)/3.
                            $$

                            By substitution,
                            $$ p_1 = 2/3cdot (2+p_1)/3 $$
                            $$ p_1 = (4+ 2p_1)/9 $$
                            $$ 9 p_1 = 4+ 2 p_1 $$
                            $$ 7 p_1 = 4 $$
                            $$ p_1 = 4/7. $$







                            share|cite|improve this answer












                            share|cite|improve this answer



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                            answered 8 hours ago









                            irchansirchans

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