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Why has M1 grown a lot faster than M3 after the financial crisis?


Should Finland leave the eurozone?What would be the effects of an expiration date on currency?With inflation so low, why is it so hard to stimulate the economy?Has the world become poorer?Which economical consequences could happen to a country if it forbiddes importing cars?Why would a rise in the discount rate stop foreign gold drain and make banks fail?Why is the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity Curve significant, but not the 5-year minus 1-year?






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1












$begingroup$


While the fed has printed a lot of money the last decade and the M1 money quantity growth rate has gone up significantly (red), the M3 growth rate (blue) is almost exactly the same as before the financial crisis.



M1 vs M3 growth rate in the US



In the euro area, M1 (red) has grown in the same rate as before, while M3 growth (blue) is significantly lower.



M1 vs M3 growth rate in the euro zone



Why have M3 not followed the same quantitive expansion as M1?



And can this be an explanation for why we have not seen stronger inflation?










share|improve this question











$endgroup$




















    1












    $begingroup$


    While the fed has printed a lot of money the last decade and the M1 money quantity growth rate has gone up significantly (red), the M3 growth rate (blue) is almost exactly the same as before the financial crisis.



    M1 vs M3 growth rate in the US



    In the euro area, M1 (red) has grown in the same rate as before, while M3 growth (blue) is significantly lower.



    M1 vs M3 growth rate in the euro zone



    Why have M3 not followed the same quantitive expansion as M1?



    And can this be an explanation for why we have not seen stronger inflation?










    share|improve this question











    $endgroup$
















      1












      1








      1





      $begingroup$


      While the fed has printed a lot of money the last decade and the M1 money quantity growth rate has gone up significantly (red), the M3 growth rate (blue) is almost exactly the same as before the financial crisis.



      M1 vs M3 growth rate in the US



      In the euro area, M1 (red) has grown in the same rate as before, while M3 growth (blue) is significantly lower.



      M1 vs M3 growth rate in the euro zone



      Why have M3 not followed the same quantitive expansion as M1?



      And can this be an explanation for why we have not seen stronger inflation?










      share|improve this question











      $endgroup$




      While the fed has printed a lot of money the last decade and the M1 money quantity growth rate has gone up significantly (red), the M3 growth rate (blue) is almost exactly the same as before the financial crisis.



      M1 vs M3 growth rate in the US



      In the euro area, M1 (red) has grown in the same rate as before, while M3 growth (blue) is significantly lower.



      M1 vs M3 growth rate in the euro zone



      Why have M3 not followed the same quantitive expansion as M1?



      And can this be an explanation for why we have not seen stronger inflation?







      macroeconomics inflation money-supply






      share|improve this question















      share|improve this question













      share|improve this question




      share|improve this question








      edited 3 hours ago







      JonT

















      asked 14 hours ago









      JonTJonT

      681 silver badge5 bronze badges




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          2 Answers
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          2














          $begingroup$


          Why have M3 not followed the same quantitive expansion as M1?




          Because commercial banks have used injected liquidities to "consolidate" their balance sheet instead of credit-stimulating demands. What I mean by "consolidate" is that the subprime crisis and its consequences have contaminated the Euro-zone's commercial banks through securitization, interrogating the default risk associated to their assets and liabilities. Injected liquidities have thus often been used by commercial banks to anticipate these potential defaults on the one hand, and to elevate their fractional-reserve ratios on the other hand so as to comply with the Basel III framework.




          And can this be an explanation for why we have not seen stronger inflation?




          Precisely. These precautious behaviours led the money multiplier to be somehow blocked (to ~$1$), i.e. the expansion of M3 is the main conventional inflation engine.



          As explained by Kent (with who I fully agree as you can see), on March 10, 2016, the ECB has even considered the possibility of giving 200€ per month and per person to stimulate inflation. And this with the intention of circumventing the commercial-bank system. This unconventional monetary policy is called monetary helicopter. And actually, as of September 2019, the ECB is still considering the possibility of using this non-conventional monetary instrument.






          share|improve this answer











          $endgroup$






















            2














            $begingroup$

            As you point out, central banks have "printed" a considerable amount of money since the 2008 crisis. The following chart of the US monetary base is one of clearest examples of this phenomenon.



            St. Lous Adjusted Monetary Base



            The metric you seem to be pointing out through your question is known as the money multiplier: the ratio of broad money (e.g., M1, M2, or MZM) to the monetary base. As we can see with the following chart, in the US, the money multiplier has decreased since the 2008 crisis.



            M1 money multiplier



            The money multiplier grows when banks and other financial institutions make loans. So in short, M3/MZM hasn't grown because a significant amount of the monetary base has just been kept in bank reserves without being loaned out.



            Excess reserves



            This has been used as an argument on the ineffectiveness of quantitative easing, and that we need to more directly put money into people's hands in order to stimulate the economy.



            And if excess reserves were all loaned out and invested/spent, we should indeed see higher levels of inflation in the short term. If the money is invested/spent wisely, then productivity growth may offset that inflation on a longer term assuming we don't continue to increase the money supply.






            share|improve this answer









            $endgroup$

















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              2 Answers
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              2














              $begingroup$


              Why have M3 not followed the same quantitive expansion as M1?




              Because commercial banks have used injected liquidities to "consolidate" their balance sheet instead of credit-stimulating demands. What I mean by "consolidate" is that the subprime crisis and its consequences have contaminated the Euro-zone's commercial banks through securitization, interrogating the default risk associated to their assets and liabilities. Injected liquidities have thus often been used by commercial banks to anticipate these potential defaults on the one hand, and to elevate their fractional-reserve ratios on the other hand so as to comply with the Basel III framework.




              And can this be an explanation for why we have not seen stronger inflation?




              Precisely. These precautious behaviours led the money multiplier to be somehow blocked (to ~$1$), i.e. the expansion of M3 is the main conventional inflation engine.



              As explained by Kent (with who I fully agree as you can see), on March 10, 2016, the ECB has even considered the possibility of giving 200€ per month and per person to stimulate inflation. And this with the intention of circumventing the commercial-bank system. This unconventional monetary policy is called monetary helicopter. And actually, as of September 2019, the ECB is still considering the possibility of using this non-conventional monetary instrument.






              share|improve this answer











              $endgroup$



















                2














                $begingroup$


                Why have M3 not followed the same quantitive expansion as M1?




                Because commercial banks have used injected liquidities to "consolidate" their balance sheet instead of credit-stimulating demands. What I mean by "consolidate" is that the subprime crisis and its consequences have contaminated the Euro-zone's commercial banks through securitization, interrogating the default risk associated to their assets and liabilities. Injected liquidities have thus often been used by commercial banks to anticipate these potential defaults on the one hand, and to elevate their fractional-reserve ratios on the other hand so as to comply with the Basel III framework.




                And can this be an explanation for why we have not seen stronger inflation?




                Precisely. These precautious behaviours led the money multiplier to be somehow blocked (to ~$1$), i.e. the expansion of M3 is the main conventional inflation engine.



                As explained by Kent (with who I fully agree as you can see), on March 10, 2016, the ECB has even considered the possibility of giving 200€ per month and per person to stimulate inflation. And this with the intention of circumventing the commercial-bank system. This unconventional monetary policy is called monetary helicopter. And actually, as of September 2019, the ECB is still considering the possibility of using this non-conventional monetary instrument.






                share|improve this answer











                $endgroup$

















                  2














                  2










                  2







                  $begingroup$


                  Why have M3 not followed the same quantitive expansion as M1?




                  Because commercial banks have used injected liquidities to "consolidate" their balance sheet instead of credit-stimulating demands. What I mean by "consolidate" is that the subprime crisis and its consequences have contaminated the Euro-zone's commercial banks through securitization, interrogating the default risk associated to their assets and liabilities. Injected liquidities have thus often been used by commercial banks to anticipate these potential defaults on the one hand, and to elevate their fractional-reserve ratios on the other hand so as to comply with the Basel III framework.




                  And can this be an explanation for why we have not seen stronger inflation?




                  Precisely. These precautious behaviours led the money multiplier to be somehow blocked (to ~$1$), i.e. the expansion of M3 is the main conventional inflation engine.



                  As explained by Kent (with who I fully agree as you can see), on March 10, 2016, the ECB has even considered the possibility of giving 200€ per month and per person to stimulate inflation. And this with the intention of circumventing the commercial-bank system. This unconventional monetary policy is called monetary helicopter. And actually, as of September 2019, the ECB is still considering the possibility of using this non-conventional monetary instrument.






                  share|improve this answer











                  $endgroup$




                  Why have M3 not followed the same quantitive expansion as M1?




                  Because commercial banks have used injected liquidities to "consolidate" their balance sheet instead of credit-stimulating demands. What I mean by "consolidate" is that the subprime crisis and its consequences have contaminated the Euro-zone's commercial banks through securitization, interrogating the default risk associated to their assets and liabilities. Injected liquidities have thus often been used by commercial banks to anticipate these potential defaults on the one hand, and to elevate their fractional-reserve ratios on the other hand so as to comply with the Basel III framework.




                  And can this be an explanation for why we have not seen stronger inflation?




                  Precisely. These precautious behaviours led the money multiplier to be somehow blocked (to ~$1$), i.e. the expansion of M3 is the main conventional inflation engine.



                  As explained by Kent (with who I fully agree as you can see), on March 10, 2016, the ECB has even considered the possibility of giving 200€ per month and per person to stimulate inflation. And this with the intention of circumventing the commercial-bank system. This unconventional monetary policy is called monetary helicopter. And actually, as of September 2019, the ECB is still considering the possibility of using this non-conventional monetary instrument.







                  share|improve this answer














                  share|improve this answer



                  share|improve this answer








                  edited 1 hour ago

























                  answered 1 hour ago









                  keepAlivekeepAlive

                  9091 gold badge4 silver badges10 bronze badges




                  9091 gold badge4 silver badges10 bronze badges


























                      2














                      $begingroup$

                      As you point out, central banks have "printed" a considerable amount of money since the 2008 crisis. The following chart of the US monetary base is one of clearest examples of this phenomenon.



                      St. Lous Adjusted Monetary Base



                      The metric you seem to be pointing out through your question is known as the money multiplier: the ratio of broad money (e.g., M1, M2, or MZM) to the monetary base. As we can see with the following chart, in the US, the money multiplier has decreased since the 2008 crisis.



                      M1 money multiplier



                      The money multiplier grows when banks and other financial institutions make loans. So in short, M3/MZM hasn't grown because a significant amount of the monetary base has just been kept in bank reserves without being loaned out.



                      Excess reserves



                      This has been used as an argument on the ineffectiveness of quantitative easing, and that we need to more directly put money into people's hands in order to stimulate the economy.



                      And if excess reserves were all loaned out and invested/spent, we should indeed see higher levels of inflation in the short term. If the money is invested/spent wisely, then productivity growth may offset that inflation on a longer term assuming we don't continue to increase the money supply.






                      share|improve this answer









                      $endgroup$



















                        2














                        $begingroup$

                        As you point out, central banks have "printed" a considerable amount of money since the 2008 crisis. The following chart of the US monetary base is one of clearest examples of this phenomenon.



                        St. Lous Adjusted Monetary Base



                        The metric you seem to be pointing out through your question is known as the money multiplier: the ratio of broad money (e.g., M1, M2, or MZM) to the monetary base. As we can see with the following chart, in the US, the money multiplier has decreased since the 2008 crisis.



                        M1 money multiplier



                        The money multiplier grows when banks and other financial institutions make loans. So in short, M3/MZM hasn't grown because a significant amount of the monetary base has just been kept in bank reserves without being loaned out.



                        Excess reserves



                        This has been used as an argument on the ineffectiveness of quantitative easing, and that we need to more directly put money into people's hands in order to stimulate the economy.



                        And if excess reserves were all loaned out and invested/spent, we should indeed see higher levels of inflation in the short term. If the money is invested/spent wisely, then productivity growth may offset that inflation on a longer term assuming we don't continue to increase the money supply.






                        share|improve this answer









                        $endgroup$

















                          2














                          2










                          2







                          $begingroup$

                          As you point out, central banks have "printed" a considerable amount of money since the 2008 crisis. The following chart of the US monetary base is one of clearest examples of this phenomenon.



                          St. Lous Adjusted Monetary Base



                          The metric you seem to be pointing out through your question is known as the money multiplier: the ratio of broad money (e.g., M1, M2, or MZM) to the monetary base. As we can see with the following chart, in the US, the money multiplier has decreased since the 2008 crisis.



                          M1 money multiplier



                          The money multiplier grows when banks and other financial institutions make loans. So in short, M3/MZM hasn't grown because a significant amount of the monetary base has just been kept in bank reserves without being loaned out.



                          Excess reserves



                          This has been used as an argument on the ineffectiveness of quantitative easing, and that we need to more directly put money into people's hands in order to stimulate the economy.



                          And if excess reserves were all loaned out and invested/spent, we should indeed see higher levels of inflation in the short term. If the money is invested/spent wisely, then productivity growth may offset that inflation on a longer term assuming we don't continue to increase the money supply.






                          share|improve this answer









                          $endgroup$



                          As you point out, central banks have "printed" a considerable amount of money since the 2008 crisis. The following chart of the US monetary base is one of clearest examples of this phenomenon.



                          St. Lous Adjusted Monetary Base



                          The metric you seem to be pointing out through your question is known as the money multiplier: the ratio of broad money (e.g., M1, M2, or MZM) to the monetary base. As we can see with the following chart, in the US, the money multiplier has decreased since the 2008 crisis.



                          M1 money multiplier



                          The money multiplier grows when banks and other financial institutions make loans. So in short, M3/MZM hasn't grown because a significant amount of the monetary base has just been kept in bank reserves without being loaned out.



                          Excess reserves



                          This has been used as an argument on the ineffectiveness of quantitative easing, and that we need to more directly put money into people's hands in order to stimulate the economy.



                          And if excess reserves were all loaned out and invested/spent, we should indeed see higher levels of inflation in the short term. If the money is invested/spent wisely, then productivity growth may offset that inflation on a longer term assuming we don't continue to increase the money supply.







                          share|improve this answer












                          share|improve this answer



                          share|improve this answer










                          answered 3 hours ago









                          Kent ShikamaKent Shikama

                          3051 silver badge8 bronze badges




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