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How many people are necessary to maintain modern civilisation?
What is the minimum human population necessary for a sustainable colony?What are the necessary professions of an advanced societyHow many people are required for a healthy re-population of the Earth (Post-Apocalypse)?Mr. Fusion reality has a global warming problemHow many human beings are/were there?How many humans do you need to maintain a population indefinitely?How Many People Per Dam Arcology?How many people does it take to run a self sufficient colonyHow many people would it take to colonize Mars?Every murderer and rapist in the world vanished without a trace. How many people is that?How many people need to be born every 8 years to sustain population?
.everyoneloves__top-leaderboard:empty,.everyoneloves__mid-leaderboard:empty,.everyoneloves__bot-mid-leaderboard:empty margin-bottom:0;
$begingroup$
Modern Earth; a series of connected events (natural disasters, mass migration, drug-resistant pandemic, collapse in biodiversity, armed conflict) have led to a significant reduction in human population over a single generation.
Does "civilisation" continue? Societies could certainly adapt to short-term disruptions—but if the complex, global, inter-connected supply chains upon which they currently depend do not recover sufficiently quickly, would they not collapse entirely?
For example, a number of contemporary industries (unfortunately) depend upon oil: not only is most transportation fuelled by petroleum; but most fertilisers, pesticides, pharmaceuticals and plastics are also derived from it. If oil extraction, refinery and distribution were to suddenly cease for a sustained period (before such dependent industries have identified and adapted to alternatives), oil reserves would deplete and those industries themselves could collapse. That in turn could lead to a collapse of further dependent industries, including the manufacture of machines used in virtually any given supply chain.
Do we have any idea how many people are required to keep "it" (the modern industrial world) functioning?
Please give due consideration to the fact that disaster-struck areas may be uninhabitable, with their populations migrating en-masse and seeking refuge in other areas—thereby placing further strains on the system.
Clarification
There have been some very probing and helpful comments, which have prompted me to spend some considerable time reflecting on exactly what my question is and this edit is an attempt to elaborate. My thanks to all those commenters who contributed to this discussion.
By "significant reduction in human population over a single generation", let's assume the reduction is unforeseen, uniform across all demographics and complete within 10 years. To be clear, it is an "unmitigated apocalypse".
By "maintain the modern industrial world", I meant maintain our current technology. It strikes me that a good measure of this is the smartphone—it requires mining and refining many minerals, including some that are so rare that viable ore has only been found in a few locations on the planet; even once refined, maufacture of some parts (e.g. 7nm-process semiconductor fabrication) is so specialist that the number of capable facilities can be counted on one hand; even once assembled and distributed, their function depends on an infrastructure of components (antennæ, switches, routers, servers, etc) that themselves require such parts and maintenance thereof.
science-based society post-apocalypse civilization population
New contributor
$endgroup$
|
show 14 more comments
$begingroup$
Modern Earth; a series of connected events (natural disasters, mass migration, drug-resistant pandemic, collapse in biodiversity, armed conflict) have led to a significant reduction in human population over a single generation.
Does "civilisation" continue? Societies could certainly adapt to short-term disruptions—but if the complex, global, inter-connected supply chains upon which they currently depend do not recover sufficiently quickly, would they not collapse entirely?
For example, a number of contemporary industries (unfortunately) depend upon oil: not only is most transportation fuelled by petroleum; but most fertilisers, pesticides, pharmaceuticals and plastics are also derived from it. If oil extraction, refinery and distribution were to suddenly cease for a sustained period (before such dependent industries have identified and adapted to alternatives), oil reserves would deplete and those industries themselves could collapse. That in turn could lead to a collapse of further dependent industries, including the manufacture of machines used in virtually any given supply chain.
Do we have any idea how many people are required to keep "it" (the modern industrial world) functioning?
Please give due consideration to the fact that disaster-struck areas may be uninhabitable, with their populations migrating en-masse and seeking refuge in other areas—thereby placing further strains on the system.
Clarification
There have been some very probing and helpful comments, which have prompted me to spend some considerable time reflecting on exactly what my question is and this edit is an attempt to elaborate. My thanks to all those commenters who contributed to this discussion.
By "significant reduction in human population over a single generation", let's assume the reduction is unforeseen, uniform across all demographics and complete within 10 years. To be clear, it is an "unmitigated apocalypse".
By "maintain the modern industrial world", I meant maintain our current technology. It strikes me that a good measure of this is the smartphone—it requires mining and refining many minerals, including some that are so rare that viable ore has only been found in a few locations on the planet; even once refined, maufacture of some parts (e.g. 7nm-process semiconductor fabrication) is so specialist that the number of capable facilities can be counted on one hand; even once assembled and distributed, their function depends on an infrastructure of components (antennæ, switches, routers, servers, etc) that themselves require such parts and maintenance thereof.
science-based society post-apocalypse civilization population
New contributor
$endgroup$
3
$begingroup$
Possible duplicate of What is the minimum human population necessary for a sustainable colony?
$endgroup$
– JBH
6 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
I voted to close as a duplicate of the linked Q because, when you think about it, they're the same thing. Whether a colony isolated from the motherland or the motherland devastated by an apocalypse (or anything else), the result is the minimum number of people needed to sustain the technology, industry, and culture of the parent society.
$endgroup$
– JBH
6 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
@user65791 and I'm explaining that the premise is fundamentally identical. To separate the two, you need to explain what cannot be accommodated by a colony that must be accommodated on the home world to meet your expectations. (Which, if you think about it, is a rationalization why you need more people.)
$endgroup$
– JBH
5 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
@user65791 so I suggest that you clarify your question. JBH is correct that without such clarification, related question gives you AN answer.
$endgroup$
– Alexander
5 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
@user65791 amongst the millions of survivors of your holocaust, surely there are every one of those trained specialists. You asked for the minimum. The minimum exists when the only people remaining are the trained specialists. The other question provides that answer. If the minimum isn't what you're looking for, then you need to edit your question.
$endgroup$
– JBH
5 hours ago
|
show 14 more comments
$begingroup$
Modern Earth; a series of connected events (natural disasters, mass migration, drug-resistant pandemic, collapse in biodiversity, armed conflict) have led to a significant reduction in human population over a single generation.
Does "civilisation" continue? Societies could certainly adapt to short-term disruptions—but if the complex, global, inter-connected supply chains upon which they currently depend do not recover sufficiently quickly, would they not collapse entirely?
For example, a number of contemporary industries (unfortunately) depend upon oil: not only is most transportation fuelled by petroleum; but most fertilisers, pesticides, pharmaceuticals and plastics are also derived from it. If oil extraction, refinery and distribution were to suddenly cease for a sustained period (before such dependent industries have identified and adapted to alternatives), oil reserves would deplete and those industries themselves could collapse. That in turn could lead to a collapse of further dependent industries, including the manufacture of machines used in virtually any given supply chain.
Do we have any idea how many people are required to keep "it" (the modern industrial world) functioning?
Please give due consideration to the fact that disaster-struck areas may be uninhabitable, with their populations migrating en-masse and seeking refuge in other areas—thereby placing further strains on the system.
Clarification
There have been some very probing and helpful comments, which have prompted me to spend some considerable time reflecting on exactly what my question is and this edit is an attempt to elaborate. My thanks to all those commenters who contributed to this discussion.
By "significant reduction in human population over a single generation", let's assume the reduction is unforeseen, uniform across all demographics and complete within 10 years. To be clear, it is an "unmitigated apocalypse".
By "maintain the modern industrial world", I meant maintain our current technology. It strikes me that a good measure of this is the smartphone—it requires mining and refining many minerals, including some that are so rare that viable ore has only been found in a few locations on the planet; even once refined, maufacture of some parts (e.g. 7nm-process semiconductor fabrication) is so specialist that the number of capable facilities can be counted on one hand; even once assembled and distributed, their function depends on an infrastructure of components (antennæ, switches, routers, servers, etc) that themselves require such parts and maintenance thereof.
science-based society post-apocalypse civilization population
New contributor
$endgroup$
Modern Earth; a series of connected events (natural disasters, mass migration, drug-resistant pandemic, collapse in biodiversity, armed conflict) have led to a significant reduction in human population over a single generation.
Does "civilisation" continue? Societies could certainly adapt to short-term disruptions—but if the complex, global, inter-connected supply chains upon which they currently depend do not recover sufficiently quickly, would they not collapse entirely?
For example, a number of contemporary industries (unfortunately) depend upon oil: not only is most transportation fuelled by petroleum; but most fertilisers, pesticides, pharmaceuticals and plastics are also derived from it. If oil extraction, refinery and distribution were to suddenly cease for a sustained period (before such dependent industries have identified and adapted to alternatives), oil reserves would deplete and those industries themselves could collapse. That in turn could lead to a collapse of further dependent industries, including the manufacture of machines used in virtually any given supply chain.
Do we have any idea how many people are required to keep "it" (the modern industrial world) functioning?
Please give due consideration to the fact that disaster-struck areas may be uninhabitable, with their populations migrating en-masse and seeking refuge in other areas—thereby placing further strains on the system.
Clarification
There have been some very probing and helpful comments, which have prompted me to spend some considerable time reflecting on exactly what my question is and this edit is an attempt to elaborate. My thanks to all those commenters who contributed to this discussion.
By "significant reduction in human population over a single generation", let's assume the reduction is unforeseen, uniform across all demographics and complete within 10 years. To be clear, it is an "unmitigated apocalypse".
By "maintain the modern industrial world", I meant maintain our current technology. It strikes me that a good measure of this is the smartphone—it requires mining and refining many minerals, including some that are so rare that viable ore has only been found in a few locations on the planet; even once refined, maufacture of some parts (e.g. 7nm-process semiconductor fabrication) is so specialist that the number of capable facilities can be counted on one hand; even once assembled and distributed, their function depends on an infrastructure of components (antennæ, switches, routers, servers, etc) that themselves require such parts and maintenance thereof.
science-based society post-apocalypse civilization population
science-based society post-apocalypse civilization population
New contributor
New contributor
edited 2 hours ago
user65791
New contributor
asked 8 hours ago
user65791user65791
362
362
New contributor
New contributor
3
$begingroup$
Possible duplicate of What is the minimum human population necessary for a sustainable colony?
$endgroup$
– JBH
6 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
I voted to close as a duplicate of the linked Q because, when you think about it, they're the same thing. Whether a colony isolated from the motherland or the motherland devastated by an apocalypse (or anything else), the result is the minimum number of people needed to sustain the technology, industry, and culture of the parent society.
$endgroup$
– JBH
6 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
@user65791 and I'm explaining that the premise is fundamentally identical. To separate the two, you need to explain what cannot be accommodated by a colony that must be accommodated on the home world to meet your expectations. (Which, if you think about it, is a rationalization why you need more people.)
$endgroup$
– JBH
5 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
@user65791 so I suggest that you clarify your question. JBH is correct that without such clarification, related question gives you AN answer.
$endgroup$
– Alexander
5 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
@user65791 amongst the millions of survivors of your holocaust, surely there are every one of those trained specialists. You asked for the minimum. The minimum exists when the only people remaining are the trained specialists. The other question provides that answer. If the minimum isn't what you're looking for, then you need to edit your question.
$endgroup$
– JBH
5 hours ago
|
show 14 more comments
3
$begingroup$
Possible duplicate of What is the minimum human population necessary for a sustainable colony?
$endgroup$
– JBH
6 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
I voted to close as a duplicate of the linked Q because, when you think about it, they're the same thing. Whether a colony isolated from the motherland or the motherland devastated by an apocalypse (or anything else), the result is the minimum number of people needed to sustain the technology, industry, and culture of the parent society.
$endgroup$
– JBH
6 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
@user65791 and I'm explaining that the premise is fundamentally identical. To separate the two, you need to explain what cannot be accommodated by a colony that must be accommodated on the home world to meet your expectations. (Which, if you think about it, is a rationalization why you need more people.)
$endgroup$
– JBH
5 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
@user65791 so I suggest that you clarify your question. JBH is correct that without such clarification, related question gives you AN answer.
$endgroup$
– Alexander
5 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
@user65791 amongst the millions of survivors of your holocaust, surely there are every one of those trained specialists. You asked for the minimum. The minimum exists when the only people remaining are the trained specialists. The other question provides that answer. If the minimum isn't what you're looking for, then you need to edit your question.
$endgroup$
– JBH
5 hours ago
3
3
$begingroup$
Possible duplicate of What is the minimum human population necessary for a sustainable colony?
$endgroup$
– JBH
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
Possible duplicate of What is the minimum human population necessary for a sustainable colony?
$endgroup$
– JBH
6 hours ago
1
1
$begingroup$
I voted to close as a duplicate of the linked Q because, when you think about it, they're the same thing. Whether a colony isolated from the motherland or the motherland devastated by an apocalypse (or anything else), the result is the minimum number of people needed to sustain the technology, industry, and culture of the parent society.
$endgroup$
– JBH
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
I voted to close as a duplicate of the linked Q because, when you think about it, they're the same thing. Whether a colony isolated from the motherland or the motherland devastated by an apocalypse (or anything else), the result is the minimum number of people needed to sustain the technology, industry, and culture of the parent society.
$endgroup$
– JBH
6 hours ago
1
1
$begingroup$
@user65791 and I'm explaining that the premise is fundamentally identical. To separate the two, you need to explain what cannot be accommodated by a colony that must be accommodated on the home world to meet your expectations. (Which, if you think about it, is a rationalization why you need more people.)
$endgroup$
– JBH
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
@user65791 and I'm explaining that the premise is fundamentally identical. To separate the two, you need to explain what cannot be accommodated by a colony that must be accommodated on the home world to meet your expectations. (Which, if you think about it, is a rationalization why you need more people.)
$endgroup$
– JBH
5 hours ago
1
1
$begingroup$
@user65791 so I suggest that you clarify your question. JBH is correct that without such clarification, related question gives you AN answer.
$endgroup$
– Alexander
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
@user65791 so I suggest that you clarify your question. JBH is correct that without such clarification, related question gives you AN answer.
$endgroup$
– Alexander
5 hours ago
1
1
$begingroup$
@user65791 amongst the millions of survivors of your holocaust, surely there are every one of those trained specialists. You asked for the minimum. The minimum exists when the only people remaining are the trained specialists. The other question provides that answer. If the minimum isn't what you're looking for, then you need to edit your question.
$endgroup$
– JBH
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
@user65791 amongst the millions of survivors of your holocaust, surely there are every one of those trained specialists. You asked for the minimum. The minimum exists when the only people remaining are the trained specialists. The other question provides that answer. If the minimum isn't what you're looking for, then you need to edit your question.
$endgroup$
– JBH
5 hours ago
|
show 14 more comments
4 Answers
4
active
oldest
votes
$begingroup$
I'm going to respond to this with a framing challenge, because as it stands I think you're asking the wrong question.
The issue is that the modern industrial world is a product of population DENSITY rather than total population. This may seem semantic but in a post-apocalyptic environment it's very meaningful. Modern industrialism depends on and benefits from massive economies of scale that accrue from having lots of people all close enough together to quickly and easily exchange goods and services.
In a post-apocalyptic scenario, if you're envisioning two million survivors scattered across the entire planet, they're all going to be spending pretty much all of their time just keeping themselves fed and sheltered, and it's straight back to a hunter/gatherer economy worldwide.
If, however, you're envisioning two million survivors concentrated in a specific area that (for example) quarantined itself before anybody could be infected with the zombie virus, then you'd potentially have enough critical mass of different kinds of expertise to allow cooperative maintenance and task specialization: e.g. you have a bunch of people whose entire job is providing the food for everybody. You have another bunch whose entire job is maintaining power/water/electric. You have another bunch who kill the zombies before they swim across the river.
This is basically how urban societies developed in the first place, and the same rules would apply in an apocalypse.
To more directly answer your question: The larger an area your population of survivors is spread across, the more people you need. The more widely distributed the resources you require are (food, water, factories, sources of raw materials), the fewer people you need.
The number could potentially be as low as a few hundred in a commune out in the middle of Nowhere, Idaho that already has its own self-sufficient sources of food, water, and power, and a smattering of skilled electricians, mechanics, and engineers.
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
I agree with much of this, but I think @CarlWitthoft also raises a valid point. It’s one thing to say that a surviving city has enough people to cope, but they will need to adapt—and the timeframe is such that adaptation may not be feasible.
$endgroup$
– eggyal
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
Not mentioning adaptation, the required human intellectual resources is a bigger problem. Putting aside inventing, operating and maintaining high-end technologies (nuclear power plant) needs high IQ, specialized humans. You can have millions of factory workers, if you have none who qualified to be a factory manager, etc. More so than quantity, quality would be a better question. Controversial opinion, but there are reasons for Wakanda to not exist, while Germany and Japan do.
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– Lupus
6 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
That's why I'd argue that the question is too broad to be answered as asked. OP needs to define the parameters of his apocalypse for any kind of real answer to be possible.
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– Morris The Cat
5 hours ago
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I've used a personal analogy for this, which I call "The brake pad problem." I estimate (without any serious research) that maybe a few hundred people around the world really know what it takes to manufacture an automobile brake pad. If you kill them all off, we're in serious trouble at least until a new process (or a reconstruction of the original) can be completed.
The idea is that everyone is incredibly specialized, and our outputs are very interconnected. This makes the whole system unstable. My WAG, then, is less than 5% of the people in industrial countries/regions would cause a complete collapse.
You might want to read Lucifer's Hammer for more ideas.
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$begingroup$
So, in "Lucifer's Hammer", do you consider that civilization goes on, or that it fully collapsed?
$endgroup$
– Alexander
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
Actually this raises a good point—perhaps my question should not have been "how many are necessary to maintain..." but rather "how many deaths would result in collapse...".
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– user65791
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
Simply quantity isn't that describing either. It's more like how many of the specialized people have to die, without hope of a quick replacement for an industry to collapse and which industrial collapse would result in total technological collapse. There are many redundant elements and one similarly specialized survivor could fill in other roles with some effort and training if necessary learning material is available.
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– Lupus
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
@Lupus: Perhaps that frames my intended question a lot more clearly. Assuming deaths are uniform and indiscriminate, then the same proportion of specialised people will die as unspecialised—and such proportion could be given instead as a quantity. That is indeed what I was asking. Should I edit my question to clarify, or do you think it's now hopeless and I should open another?
$endgroup$
– user65791
5 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
@user65791 a significant edit after multiple answers have been posted is best avoided, I feel.
$endgroup$
– Starfish Prime
5 hours ago
|
show 4 more comments
$begingroup$
This answer might sound mean, but most people can be killed off without affecting the industries, if you choose the right people. You only need the people directly employed in the industries, the people supporting the cities and governments where those people live, the people providing supplies to those. Currently that's basically the West, factory places in Asia and some others scattered around the world. Probably around a billion people needed to keep everything running as it is, but could be less.
Although it depends where and in how many places you want to see modern civilisation. In all the places it exists around the world? In a select few nations? Or is one city enough?
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
What we DON'T need
Let's start the answer in reverse. Who we can dismiss? Who we don't need to maintain modern technological levels. A good part of humanity if I says so. No offense for anyone.
- Employees of huge companies who provide service to the masses? They
can be significantly down-scaled. If functionality, the maintaining
of technology instead of profit the purpose, only their engineering
team. You can scrap their HR, sales, and so on departments. - Most services and its workers too - you don't need 20 kind of chips
and cars and so on, to maintain modern technology levels. - Any kind of Media related profession - SCRAP!
- Governmental bodies - Significantly downscaled, based on the
situation and type of government. - Homeless, unemployed, and so on... they don't contribute to modern
technology, so they too can be dismissed.
Other factors: Human intellect, productivity, automation
- Automation - we are heading towards a heavily automated world, most
mundane task can be or will be replaced by robots. - Human intellect - Automation means, you can dismiss almost all the
heavy-lifters. You will however need highly educated and intelligent
people to operate and maintain the machinery. - Productivity - much depends on the disposition of the people. Are
they lazy? Hard-workers? Do you need police to manage big masses of
them and so on. This too will affect the final number.
The final factor is, in this scenario, do all human capable of reaching the same intellectual level? Do they born equal in that regard? Or for example every hundredth people has high enough intellect?
The envisioned technology level of (modern) also changes to final number. Steam-engines are easier to understand than nuclear. A possibly future automation could reach fully automated factories with a few overseer required.
To calculate an accurate number without these factors, is beyond my capability.
At guess, a few hundred thousand or million, highly specialized human blessed with great intellectual capability could, in theory, all over the world operate and maintain the necessary machinery to keep it going.
New contributor
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I would like a short note, comment on why the downvote, so I may look into the issue and improve my future answers. Thanks.
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– Lupus
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
I think this missed the real facts of what is required to keep the 'wheels' of an advanced civilization turning. Even with today's levels of automation, to mine raw materials and refine refine them, transport them, for example iron and aluminium and glass and cloth, and silicon, rate-earths, etc - then manufacture the products these are used in, maintain power supplies, communication and transport networks, water supplies, sewer systems, waste disposal etc. society needs a vast number of people who don't fit into the "highly specialized ... intellectual" milieu. And farming, forestry and...
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– Penguino
1 hour ago
$begingroup$
I didn't downvote you, but I suspect that any answer implying that some people are more valuable than other people will cause some readers to automatically downvote it. If by chance some downvotes were for other reasons, I too would like to know what they are.
$endgroup$
– Ray Butterworth
1 min ago
add a comment |
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4 Answers
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4 Answers
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$begingroup$
I'm going to respond to this with a framing challenge, because as it stands I think you're asking the wrong question.
The issue is that the modern industrial world is a product of population DENSITY rather than total population. This may seem semantic but in a post-apocalyptic environment it's very meaningful. Modern industrialism depends on and benefits from massive economies of scale that accrue from having lots of people all close enough together to quickly and easily exchange goods and services.
In a post-apocalyptic scenario, if you're envisioning two million survivors scattered across the entire planet, they're all going to be spending pretty much all of their time just keeping themselves fed and sheltered, and it's straight back to a hunter/gatherer economy worldwide.
If, however, you're envisioning two million survivors concentrated in a specific area that (for example) quarantined itself before anybody could be infected with the zombie virus, then you'd potentially have enough critical mass of different kinds of expertise to allow cooperative maintenance and task specialization: e.g. you have a bunch of people whose entire job is providing the food for everybody. You have another bunch whose entire job is maintaining power/water/electric. You have another bunch who kill the zombies before they swim across the river.
This is basically how urban societies developed in the first place, and the same rules would apply in an apocalypse.
To more directly answer your question: The larger an area your population of survivors is spread across, the more people you need. The more widely distributed the resources you require are (food, water, factories, sources of raw materials), the fewer people you need.
The number could potentially be as low as a few hundred in a commune out in the middle of Nowhere, Idaho that already has its own self-sufficient sources of food, water, and power, and a smattering of skilled electricians, mechanics, and engineers.
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
I agree with much of this, but I think @CarlWitthoft also raises a valid point. It’s one thing to say that a surviving city has enough people to cope, but they will need to adapt—and the timeframe is such that adaptation may not be feasible.
$endgroup$
– eggyal
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
Not mentioning adaptation, the required human intellectual resources is a bigger problem. Putting aside inventing, operating and maintaining high-end technologies (nuclear power plant) needs high IQ, specialized humans. You can have millions of factory workers, if you have none who qualified to be a factory manager, etc. More so than quantity, quality would be a better question. Controversial opinion, but there are reasons for Wakanda to not exist, while Germany and Japan do.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
6 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
That's why I'd argue that the question is too broad to be answered as asked. OP needs to define the parameters of his apocalypse for any kind of real answer to be possible.
$endgroup$
– Morris The Cat
5 hours ago
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I'm going to respond to this with a framing challenge, because as it stands I think you're asking the wrong question.
The issue is that the modern industrial world is a product of population DENSITY rather than total population. This may seem semantic but in a post-apocalyptic environment it's very meaningful. Modern industrialism depends on and benefits from massive economies of scale that accrue from having lots of people all close enough together to quickly and easily exchange goods and services.
In a post-apocalyptic scenario, if you're envisioning two million survivors scattered across the entire planet, they're all going to be spending pretty much all of their time just keeping themselves fed and sheltered, and it's straight back to a hunter/gatherer economy worldwide.
If, however, you're envisioning two million survivors concentrated in a specific area that (for example) quarantined itself before anybody could be infected with the zombie virus, then you'd potentially have enough critical mass of different kinds of expertise to allow cooperative maintenance and task specialization: e.g. you have a bunch of people whose entire job is providing the food for everybody. You have another bunch whose entire job is maintaining power/water/electric. You have another bunch who kill the zombies before they swim across the river.
This is basically how urban societies developed in the first place, and the same rules would apply in an apocalypse.
To more directly answer your question: The larger an area your population of survivors is spread across, the more people you need. The more widely distributed the resources you require are (food, water, factories, sources of raw materials), the fewer people you need.
The number could potentially be as low as a few hundred in a commune out in the middle of Nowhere, Idaho that already has its own self-sufficient sources of food, water, and power, and a smattering of skilled electricians, mechanics, and engineers.
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
I agree with much of this, but I think @CarlWitthoft also raises a valid point. It’s one thing to say that a surviving city has enough people to cope, but they will need to adapt—and the timeframe is such that adaptation may not be feasible.
$endgroup$
– eggyal
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
Not mentioning adaptation, the required human intellectual resources is a bigger problem. Putting aside inventing, operating and maintaining high-end technologies (nuclear power plant) needs high IQ, specialized humans. You can have millions of factory workers, if you have none who qualified to be a factory manager, etc. More so than quantity, quality would be a better question. Controversial opinion, but there are reasons for Wakanda to not exist, while Germany and Japan do.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
6 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
That's why I'd argue that the question is too broad to be answered as asked. OP needs to define the parameters of his apocalypse for any kind of real answer to be possible.
$endgroup$
– Morris The Cat
5 hours ago
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I'm going to respond to this with a framing challenge, because as it stands I think you're asking the wrong question.
The issue is that the modern industrial world is a product of population DENSITY rather than total population. This may seem semantic but in a post-apocalyptic environment it's very meaningful. Modern industrialism depends on and benefits from massive economies of scale that accrue from having lots of people all close enough together to quickly and easily exchange goods and services.
In a post-apocalyptic scenario, if you're envisioning two million survivors scattered across the entire planet, they're all going to be spending pretty much all of their time just keeping themselves fed and sheltered, and it's straight back to a hunter/gatherer economy worldwide.
If, however, you're envisioning two million survivors concentrated in a specific area that (for example) quarantined itself before anybody could be infected with the zombie virus, then you'd potentially have enough critical mass of different kinds of expertise to allow cooperative maintenance and task specialization: e.g. you have a bunch of people whose entire job is providing the food for everybody. You have another bunch whose entire job is maintaining power/water/electric. You have another bunch who kill the zombies before they swim across the river.
This is basically how urban societies developed in the first place, and the same rules would apply in an apocalypse.
To more directly answer your question: The larger an area your population of survivors is spread across, the more people you need. The more widely distributed the resources you require are (food, water, factories, sources of raw materials), the fewer people you need.
The number could potentially be as low as a few hundred in a commune out in the middle of Nowhere, Idaho that already has its own self-sufficient sources of food, water, and power, and a smattering of skilled electricians, mechanics, and engineers.
$endgroup$
I'm going to respond to this with a framing challenge, because as it stands I think you're asking the wrong question.
The issue is that the modern industrial world is a product of population DENSITY rather than total population. This may seem semantic but in a post-apocalyptic environment it's very meaningful. Modern industrialism depends on and benefits from massive economies of scale that accrue from having lots of people all close enough together to quickly and easily exchange goods and services.
In a post-apocalyptic scenario, if you're envisioning two million survivors scattered across the entire planet, they're all going to be spending pretty much all of their time just keeping themselves fed and sheltered, and it's straight back to a hunter/gatherer economy worldwide.
If, however, you're envisioning two million survivors concentrated in a specific area that (for example) quarantined itself before anybody could be infected with the zombie virus, then you'd potentially have enough critical mass of different kinds of expertise to allow cooperative maintenance and task specialization: e.g. you have a bunch of people whose entire job is providing the food for everybody. You have another bunch whose entire job is maintaining power/water/electric. You have another bunch who kill the zombies before they swim across the river.
This is basically how urban societies developed in the first place, and the same rules would apply in an apocalypse.
To more directly answer your question: The larger an area your population of survivors is spread across, the more people you need. The more widely distributed the resources you require are (food, water, factories, sources of raw materials), the fewer people you need.
The number could potentially be as low as a few hundred in a commune out in the middle of Nowhere, Idaho that already has its own self-sufficient sources of food, water, and power, and a smattering of skilled electricians, mechanics, and engineers.
answered 6 hours ago
Morris The CatMorris The Cat
4,9571127
4,9571127
$begingroup$
I agree with much of this, but I think @CarlWitthoft also raises a valid point. It’s one thing to say that a surviving city has enough people to cope, but they will need to adapt—and the timeframe is such that adaptation may not be feasible.
$endgroup$
– eggyal
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
Not mentioning adaptation, the required human intellectual resources is a bigger problem. Putting aside inventing, operating and maintaining high-end technologies (nuclear power plant) needs high IQ, specialized humans. You can have millions of factory workers, if you have none who qualified to be a factory manager, etc. More so than quantity, quality would be a better question. Controversial opinion, but there are reasons for Wakanda to not exist, while Germany and Japan do.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
6 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
That's why I'd argue that the question is too broad to be answered as asked. OP needs to define the parameters of his apocalypse for any kind of real answer to be possible.
$endgroup$
– Morris The Cat
5 hours ago
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I agree with much of this, but I think @CarlWitthoft also raises a valid point. It’s one thing to say that a surviving city has enough people to cope, but they will need to adapt—and the timeframe is such that adaptation may not be feasible.
$endgroup$
– eggyal
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
Not mentioning adaptation, the required human intellectual resources is a bigger problem. Putting aside inventing, operating and maintaining high-end technologies (nuclear power plant) needs high IQ, specialized humans. You can have millions of factory workers, if you have none who qualified to be a factory manager, etc. More so than quantity, quality would be a better question. Controversial opinion, but there are reasons for Wakanda to not exist, while Germany and Japan do.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
6 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
That's why I'd argue that the question is too broad to be answered as asked. OP needs to define the parameters of his apocalypse for any kind of real answer to be possible.
$endgroup$
– Morris The Cat
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
I agree with much of this, but I think @CarlWitthoft also raises a valid point. It’s one thing to say that a surviving city has enough people to cope, but they will need to adapt—and the timeframe is such that adaptation may not be feasible.
$endgroup$
– eggyal
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
I agree with much of this, but I think @CarlWitthoft also raises a valid point. It’s one thing to say that a surviving city has enough people to cope, but they will need to adapt—and the timeframe is such that adaptation may not be feasible.
$endgroup$
– eggyal
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
Not mentioning adaptation, the required human intellectual resources is a bigger problem. Putting aside inventing, operating and maintaining high-end technologies (nuclear power plant) needs high IQ, specialized humans. You can have millions of factory workers, if you have none who qualified to be a factory manager, etc. More so than quantity, quality would be a better question. Controversial opinion, but there are reasons for Wakanda to not exist, while Germany and Japan do.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
Not mentioning adaptation, the required human intellectual resources is a bigger problem. Putting aside inventing, operating and maintaining high-end technologies (nuclear power plant) needs high IQ, specialized humans. You can have millions of factory workers, if you have none who qualified to be a factory manager, etc. More so than quantity, quality would be a better question. Controversial opinion, but there are reasons for Wakanda to not exist, while Germany and Japan do.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
6 hours ago
1
1
$begingroup$
That's why I'd argue that the question is too broad to be answered as asked. OP needs to define the parameters of his apocalypse for any kind of real answer to be possible.
$endgroup$
– Morris The Cat
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
That's why I'd argue that the question is too broad to be answered as asked. OP needs to define the parameters of his apocalypse for any kind of real answer to be possible.
$endgroup$
– Morris The Cat
5 hours ago
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I've used a personal analogy for this, which I call "The brake pad problem." I estimate (without any serious research) that maybe a few hundred people around the world really know what it takes to manufacture an automobile brake pad. If you kill them all off, we're in serious trouble at least until a new process (or a reconstruction of the original) can be completed.
The idea is that everyone is incredibly specialized, and our outputs are very interconnected. This makes the whole system unstable. My WAG, then, is less than 5% of the people in industrial countries/regions would cause a complete collapse.
You might want to read Lucifer's Hammer for more ideas.
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
So, in "Lucifer's Hammer", do you consider that civilization goes on, or that it fully collapsed?
$endgroup$
– Alexander
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
Actually this raises a good point—perhaps my question should not have been "how many are necessary to maintain..." but rather "how many deaths would result in collapse...".
$endgroup$
– user65791
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
Simply quantity isn't that describing either. It's more like how many of the specialized people have to die, without hope of a quick replacement for an industry to collapse and which industrial collapse would result in total technological collapse. There are many redundant elements and one similarly specialized survivor could fill in other roles with some effort and training if necessary learning material is available.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
@Lupus: Perhaps that frames my intended question a lot more clearly. Assuming deaths are uniform and indiscriminate, then the same proportion of specialised people will die as unspecialised—and such proportion could be given instead as a quantity. That is indeed what I was asking. Should I edit my question to clarify, or do you think it's now hopeless and I should open another?
$endgroup$
– user65791
5 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
@user65791 a significant edit after multiple answers have been posted is best avoided, I feel.
$endgroup$
– Starfish Prime
5 hours ago
|
show 4 more comments
$begingroup$
I've used a personal analogy for this, which I call "The brake pad problem." I estimate (without any serious research) that maybe a few hundred people around the world really know what it takes to manufacture an automobile brake pad. If you kill them all off, we're in serious trouble at least until a new process (or a reconstruction of the original) can be completed.
The idea is that everyone is incredibly specialized, and our outputs are very interconnected. This makes the whole system unstable. My WAG, then, is less than 5% of the people in industrial countries/regions would cause a complete collapse.
You might want to read Lucifer's Hammer for more ideas.
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
So, in "Lucifer's Hammer", do you consider that civilization goes on, or that it fully collapsed?
$endgroup$
– Alexander
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
Actually this raises a good point—perhaps my question should not have been "how many are necessary to maintain..." but rather "how many deaths would result in collapse...".
$endgroup$
– user65791
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
Simply quantity isn't that describing either. It's more like how many of the specialized people have to die, without hope of a quick replacement for an industry to collapse and which industrial collapse would result in total technological collapse. There are many redundant elements and one similarly specialized survivor could fill in other roles with some effort and training if necessary learning material is available.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
@Lupus: Perhaps that frames my intended question a lot more clearly. Assuming deaths are uniform and indiscriminate, then the same proportion of specialised people will die as unspecialised—and such proportion could be given instead as a quantity. That is indeed what I was asking. Should I edit my question to clarify, or do you think it's now hopeless and I should open another?
$endgroup$
– user65791
5 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
@user65791 a significant edit after multiple answers have been posted is best avoided, I feel.
$endgroup$
– Starfish Prime
5 hours ago
|
show 4 more comments
$begingroup$
I've used a personal analogy for this, which I call "The brake pad problem." I estimate (without any serious research) that maybe a few hundred people around the world really know what it takes to manufacture an automobile brake pad. If you kill them all off, we're in serious trouble at least until a new process (or a reconstruction of the original) can be completed.
The idea is that everyone is incredibly specialized, and our outputs are very interconnected. This makes the whole system unstable. My WAG, then, is less than 5% of the people in industrial countries/regions would cause a complete collapse.
You might want to read Lucifer's Hammer for more ideas.
$endgroup$
I've used a personal analogy for this, which I call "The brake pad problem." I estimate (without any serious research) that maybe a few hundred people around the world really know what it takes to manufacture an automobile brake pad. If you kill them all off, we're in serious trouble at least until a new process (or a reconstruction of the original) can be completed.
The idea is that everyone is incredibly specialized, and our outputs are very interconnected. This makes the whole system unstable. My WAG, then, is less than 5% of the people in industrial countries/regions would cause a complete collapse.
You might want to read Lucifer's Hammer for more ideas.
answered 6 hours ago
Carl WitthoftCarl Witthoft
27425
27425
$begingroup$
So, in "Lucifer's Hammer", do you consider that civilization goes on, or that it fully collapsed?
$endgroup$
– Alexander
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
Actually this raises a good point—perhaps my question should not have been "how many are necessary to maintain..." but rather "how many deaths would result in collapse...".
$endgroup$
– user65791
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
Simply quantity isn't that describing either. It's more like how many of the specialized people have to die, without hope of a quick replacement for an industry to collapse and which industrial collapse would result in total technological collapse. There are many redundant elements and one similarly specialized survivor could fill in other roles with some effort and training if necessary learning material is available.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
@Lupus: Perhaps that frames my intended question a lot more clearly. Assuming deaths are uniform and indiscriminate, then the same proportion of specialised people will die as unspecialised—and such proportion could be given instead as a quantity. That is indeed what I was asking. Should I edit my question to clarify, or do you think it's now hopeless and I should open another?
$endgroup$
– user65791
5 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
@user65791 a significant edit after multiple answers have been posted is best avoided, I feel.
$endgroup$
– Starfish Prime
5 hours ago
|
show 4 more comments
$begingroup$
So, in "Lucifer's Hammer", do you consider that civilization goes on, or that it fully collapsed?
$endgroup$
– Alexander
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
Actually this raises a good point—perhaps my question should not have been "how many are necessary to maintain..." but rather "how many deaths would result in collapse...".
$endgroup$
– user65791
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
Simply quantity isn't that describing either. It's more like how many of the specialized people have to die, without hope of a quick replacement for an industry to collapse and which industrial collapse would result in total technological collapse. There are many redundant elements and one similarly specialized survivor could fill in other roles with some effort and training if necessary learning material is available.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
@Lupus: Perhaps that frames my intended question a lot more clearly. Assuming deaths are uniform and indiscriminate, then the same proportion of specialised people will die as unspecialised—and such proportion could be given instead as a quantity. That is indeed what I was asking. Should I edit my question to clarify, or do you think it's now hopeless and I should open another?
$endgroup$
– user65791
5 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
@user65791 a significant edit after multiple answers have been posted is best avoided, I feel.
$endgroup$
– Starfish Prime
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
So, in "Lucifer's Hammer", do you consider that civilization goes on, or that it fully collapsed?
$endgroup$
– Alexander
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
So, in "Lucifer's Hammer", do you consider that civilization goes on, or that it fully collapsed?
$endgroup$
– Alexander
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
Actually this raises a good point—perhaps my question should not have been "how many are necessary to maintain..." but rather "how many deaths would result in collapse...".
$endgroup$
– user65791
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
Actually this raises a good point—perhaps my question should not have been "how many are necessary to maintain..." but rather "how many deaths would result in collapse...".
$endgroup$
– user65791
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
Simply quantity isn't that describing either. It's more like how many of the specialized people have to die, without hope of a quick replacement for an industry to collapse and which industrial collapse would result in total technological collapse. There are many redundant elements and one similarly specialized survivor could fill in other roles with some effort and training if necessary learning material is available.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
Simply quantity isn't that describing either. It's more like how many of the specialized people have to die, without hope of a quick replacement for an industry to collapse and which industrial collapse would result in total technological collapse. There are many redundant elements and one similarly specialized survivor could fill in other roles with some effort and training if necessary learning material is available.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
6 hours ago
$begingroup$
@Lupus: Perhaps that frames my intended question a lot more clearly. Assuming deaths are uniform and indiscriminate, then the same proportion of specialised people will die as unspecialised—and such proportion could be given instead as a quantity. That is indeed what I was asking. Should I edit my question to clarify, or do you think it's now hopeless and I should open another?
$endgroup$
– user65791
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
@Lupus: Perhaps that frames my intended question a lot more clearly. Assuming deaths are uniform and indiscriminate, then the same proportion of specialised people will die as unspecialised—and such proportion could be given instead as a quantity. That is indeed what I was asking. Should I edit my question to clarify, or do you think it's now hopeless and I should open another?
$endgroup$
– user65791
5 hours ago
1
1
$begingroup$
@user65791 a significant edit after multiple answers have been posted is best avoided, I feel.
$endgroup$
– Starfish Prime
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
@user65791 a significant edit after multiple answers have been posted is best avoided, I feel.
$endgroup$
– Starfish Prime
5 hours ago
|
show 4 more comments
$begingroup$
This answer might sound mean, but most people can be killed off without affecting the industries, if you choose the right people. You only need the people directly employed in the industries, the people supporting the cities and governments where those people live, the people providing supplies to those. Currently that's basically the West, factory places in Asia and some others scattered around the world. Probably around a billion people needed to keep everything running as it is, but could be less.
Although it depends where and in how many places you want to see modern civilisation. In all the places it exists around the world? In a select few nations? Or is one city enough?
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
This answer might sound mean, but most people can be killed off without affecting the industries, if you choose the right people. You only need the people directly employed in the industries, the people supporting the cities and governments where those people live, the people providing supplies to those. Currently that's basically the West, factory places in Asia and some others scattered around the world. Probably around a billion people needed to keep everything running as it is, but could be less.
Although it depends where and in how many places you want to see modern civilisation. In all the places it exists around the world? In a select few nations? Or is one city enough?
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
This answer might sound mean, but most people can be killed off without affecting the industries, if you choose the right people. You only need the people directly employed in the industries, the people supporting the cities and governments where those people live, the people providing supplies to those. Currently that's basically the West, factory places in Asia and some others scattered around the world. Probably around a billion people needed to keep everything running as it is, but could be less.
Although it depends where and in how many places you want to see modern civilisation. In all the places it exists around the world? In a select few nations? Or is one city enough?
$endgroup$
This answer might sound mean, but most people can be killed off without affecting the industries, if you choose the right people. You only need the people directly employed in the industries, the people supporting the cities and governments where those people live, the people providing supplies to those. Currently that's basically the West, factory places in Asia and some others scattered around the world. Probably around a billion people needed to keep everything running as it is, but could be less.
Although it depends where and in how many places you want to see modern civilisation. In all the places it exists around the world? In a select few nations? Or is one city enough?
answered 6 hours ago
CuriosityCuriosity
1545
1545
add a comment |
add a comment |
$begingroup$
What we DON'T need
Let's start the answer in reverse. Who we can dismiss? Who we don't need to maintain modern technological levels. A good part of humanity if I says so. No offense for anyone.
- Employees of huge companies who provide service to the masses? They
can be significantly down-scaled. If functionality, the maintaining
of technology instead of profit the purpose, only their engineering
team. You can scrap their HR, sales, and so on departments. - Most services and its workers too - you don't need 20 kind of chips
and cars and so on, to maintain modern technology levels. - Any kind of Media related profession - SCRAP!
- Governmental bodies - Significantly downscaled, based on the
situation and type of government. - Homeless, unemployed, and so on... they don't contribute to modern
technology, so they too can be dismissed.
Other factors: Human intellect, productivity, automation
- Automation - we are heading towards a heavily automated world, most
mundane task can be or will be replaced by robots. - Human intellect - Automation means, you can dismiss almost all the
heavy-lifters. You will however need highly educated and intelligent
people to operate and maintain the machinery. - Productivity - much depends on the disposition of the people. Are
they lazy? Hard-workers? Do you need police to manage big masses of
them and so on. This too will affect the final number.
The final factor is, in this scenario, do all human capable of reaching the same intellectual level? Do they born equal in that regard? Or for example every hundredth people has high enough intellect?
The envisioned technology level of (modern) also changes to final number. Steam-engines are easier to understand than nuclear. A possibly future automation could reach fully automated factories with a few overseer required.
To calculate an accurate number without these factors, is beyond my capability.
At guess, a few hundred thousand or million, highly specialized human blessed with great intellectual capability could, in theory, all over the world operate and maintain the necessary machinery to keep it going.
New contributor
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
I would like a short note, comment on why the downvote, so I may look into the issue and improve my future answers. Thanks.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
I think this missed the real facts of what is required to keep the 'wheels' of an advanced civilization turning. Even with today's levels of automation, to mine raw materials and refine refine them, transport them, for example iron and aluminium and glass and cloth, and silicon, rate-earths, etc - then manufacture the products these are used in, maintain power supplies, communication and transport networks, water supplies, sewer systems, waste disposal etc. society needs a vast number of people who don't fit into the "highly specialized ... intellectual" milieu. And farming, forestry and...
$endgroup$
– Penguino
1 hour ago
$begingroup$
I didn't downvote you, but I suspect that any answer implying that some people are more valuable than other people will cause some readers to automatically downvote it. If by chance some downvotes were for other reasons, I too would like to know what they are.
$endgroup$
– Ray Butterworth
1 min ago
add a comment |
$begingroup$
What we DON'T need
Let's start the answer in reverse. Who we can dismiss? Who we don't need to maintain modern technological levels. A good part of humanity if I says so. No offense for anyone.
- Employees of huge companies who provide service to the masses? They
can be significantly down-scaled. If functionality, the maintaining
of technology instead of profit the purpose, only their engineering
team. You can scrap their HR, sales, and so on departments. - Most services and its workers too - you don't need 20 kind of chips
and cars and so on, to maintain modern technology levels. - Any kind of Media related profession - SCRAP!
- Governmental bodies - Significantly downscaled, based on the
situation and type of government. - Homeless, unemployed, and so on... they don't contribute to modern
technology, so they too can be dismissed.
Other factors: Human intellect, productivity, automation
- Automation - we are heading towards a heavily automated world, most
mundane task can be or will be replaced by robots. - Human intellect - Automation means, you can dismiss almost all the
heavy-lifters. You will however need highly educated and intelligent
people to operate and maintain the machinery. - Productivity - much depends on the disposition of the people. Are
they lazy? Hard-workers? Do you need police to manage big masses of
them and so on. This too will affect the final number.
The final factor is, in this scenario, do all human capable of reaching the same intellectual level? Do they born equal in that regard? Or for example every hundredth people has high enough intellect?
The envisioned technology level of (modern) also changes to final number. Steam-engines are easier to understand than nuclear. A possibly future automation could reach fully automated factories with a few overseer required.
To calculate an accurate number without these factors, is beyond my capability.
At guess, a few hundred thousand or million, highly specialized human blessed with great intellectual capability could, in theory, all over the world operate and maintain the necessary machinery to keep it going.
New contributor
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
I would like a short note, comment on why the downvote, so I may look into the issue and improve my future answers. Thanks.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
I think this missed the real facts of what is required to keep the 'wheels' of an advanced civilization turning. Even with today's levels of automation, to mine raw materials and refine refine them, transport them, for example iron and aluminium and glass and cloth, and silicon, rate-earths, etc - then manufacture the products these are used in, maintain power supplies, communication and transport networks, water supplies, sewer systems, waste disposal etc. society needs a vast number of people who don't fit into the "highly specialized ... intellectual" milieu. And farming, forestry and...
$endgroup$
– Penguino
1 hour ago
$begingroup$
I didn't downvote you, but I suspect that any answer implying that some people are more valuable than other people will cause some readers to automatically downvote it. If by chance some downvotes were for other reasons, I too would like to know what they are.
$endgroup$
– Ray Butterworth
1 min ago
add a comment |
$begingroup$
What we DON'T need
Let's start the answer in reverse. Who we can dismiss? Who we don't need to maintain modern technological levels. A good part of humanity if I says so. No offense for anyone.
- Employees of huge companies who provide service to the masses? They
can be significantly down-scaled. If functionality, the maintaining
of technology instead of profit the purpose, only their engineering
team. You can scrap their HR, sales, and so on departments. - Most services and its workers too - you don't need 20 kind of chips
and cars and so on, to maintain modern technology levels. - Any kind of Media related profession - SCRAP!
- Governmental bodies - Significantly downscaled, based on the
situation and type of government. - Homeless, unemployed, and so on... they don't contribute to modern
technology, so they too can be dismissed.
Other factors: Human intellect, productivity, automation
- Automation - we are heading towards a heavily automated world, most
mundane task can be or will be replaced by robots. - Human intellect - Automation means, you can dismiss almost all the
heavy-lifters. You will however need highly educated and intelligent
people to operate and maintain the machinery. - Productivity - much depends on the disposition of the people. Are
they lazy? Hard-workers? Do you need police to manage big masses of
them and so on. This too will affect the final number.
The final factor is, in this scenario, do all human capable of reaching the same intellectual level? Do they born equal in that regard? Or for example every hundredth people has high enough intellect?
The envisioned technology level of (modern) also changes to final number. Steam-engines are easier to understand than nuclear. A possibly future automation could reach fully automated factories with a few overseer required.
To calculate an accurate number without these factors, is beyond my capability.
At guess, a few hundred thousand or million, highly specialized human blessed with great intellectual capability could, in theory, all over the world operate and maintain the necessary machinery to keep it going.
New contributor
$endgroup$
What we DON'T need
Let's start the answer in reverse. Who we can dismiss? Who we don't need to maintain modern technological levels. A good part of humanity if I says so. No offense for anyone.
- Employees of huge companies who provide service to the masses? They
can be significantly down-scaled. If functionality, the maintaining
of technology instead of profit the purpose, only their engineering
team. You can scrap their HR, sales, and so on departments. - Most services and its workers too - you don't need 20 kind of chips
and cars and so on, to maintain modern technology levels. - Any kind of Media related profession - SCRAP!
- Governmental bodies - Significantly downscaled, based on the
situation and type of government. - Homeless, unemployed, and so on... they don't contribute to modern
technology, so they too can be dismissed.
Other factors: Human intellect, productivity, automation
- Automation - we are heading towards a heavily automated world, most
mundane task can be or will be replaced by robots. - Human intellect - Automation means, you can dismiss almost all the
heavy-lifters. You will however need highly educated and intelligent
people to operate and maintain the machinery. - Productivity - much depends on the disposition of the people. Are
they lazy? Hard-workers? Do you need police to manage big masses of
them and so on. This too will affect the final number.
The final factor is, in this scenario, do all human capable of reaching the same intellectual level? Do they born equal in that regard? Or for example every hundredth people has high enough intellect?
The envisioned technology level of (modern) also changes to final number. Steam-engines are easier to understand than nuclear. A possibly future automation could reach fully automated factories with a few overseer required.
To calculate an accurate number without these factors, is beyond my capability.
At guess, a few hundred thousand or million, highly specialized human blessed with great intellectual capability could, in theory, all over the world operate and maintain the necessary machinery to keep it going.
New contributor
edited 4 hours ago
New contributor
answered 6 hours ago
LupusLupus
776
776
New contributor
New contributor
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I would like a short note, comment on why the downvote, so I may look into the issue and improve my future answers. Thanks.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
I think this missed the real facts of what is required to keep the 'wheels' of an advanced civilization turning. Even with today's levels of automation, to mine raw materials and refine refine them, transport them, for example iron and aluminium and glass and cloth, and silicon, rate-earths, etc - then manufacture the products these are used in, maintain power supplies, communication and transport networks, water supplies, sewer systems, waste disposal etc. society needs a vast number of people who don't fit into the "highly specialized ... intellectual" milieu. And farming, forestry and...
$endgroup$
– Penguino
1 hour ago
$begingroup$
I didn't downvote you, but I suspect that any answer implying that some people are more valuable than other people will cause some readers to automatically downvote it. If by chance some downvotes were for other reasons, I too would like to know what they are.
$endgroup$
– Ray Butterworth
1 min ago
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I would like a short note, comment on why the downvote, so I may look into the issue and improve my future answers. Thanks.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
I think this missed the real facts of what is required to keep the 'wheels' of an advanced civilization turning. Even with today's levels of automation, to mine raw materials and refine refine them, transport them, for example iron and aluminium and glass and cloth, and silicon, rate-earths, etc - then manufacture the products these are used in, maintain power supplies, communication and transport networks, water supplies, sewer systems, waste disposal etc. society needs a vast number of people who don't fit into the "highly specialized ... intellectual" milieu. And farming, forestry and...
$endgroup$
– Penguino
1 hour ago
$begingroup$
I didn't downvote you, but I suspect that any answer implying that some people are more valuable than other people will cause some readers to automatically downvote it. If by chance some downvotes were for other reasons, I too would like to know what they are.
$endgroup$
– Ray Butterworth
1 min ago
$begingroup$
I would like a short note, comment on why the downvote, so I may look into the issue and improve my future answers. Thanks.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
I would like a short note, comment on why the downvote, so I may look into the issue and improve my future answers. Thanks.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
I think this missed the real facts of what is required to keep the 'wheels' of an advanced civilization turning. Even with today's levels of automation, to mine raw materials and refine refine them, transport them, for example iron and aluminium and glass and cloth, and silicon, rate-earths, etc - then manufacture the products these are used in, maintain power supplies, communication and transport networks, water supplies, sewer systems, waste disposal etc. society needs a vast number of people who don't fit into the "highly specialized ... intellectual" milieu. And farming, forestry and...
$endgroup$
– Penguino
1 hour ago
$begingroup$
I think this missed the real facts of what is required to keep the 'wheels' of an advanced civilization turning. Even with today's levels of automation, to mine raw materials and refine refine them, transport them, for example iron and aluminium and glass and cloth, and silicon, rate-earths, etc - then manufacture the products these are used in, maintain power supplies, communication and transport networks, water supplies, sewer systems, waste disposal etc. society needs a vast number of people who don't fit into the "highly specialized ... intellectual" milieu. And farming, forestry and...
$endgroup$
– Penguino
1 hour ago
$begingroup$
I didn't downvote you, but I suspect that any answer implying that some people are more valuable than other people will cause some readers to automatically downvote it. If by chance some downvotes were for other reasons, I too would like to know what they are.
$endgroup$
– Ray Butterworth
1 min ago
$begingroup$
I didn't downvote you, but I suspect that any answer implying that some people are more valuable than other people will cause some readers to automatically downvote it. If by chance some downvotes were for other reasons, I too would like to know what they are.
$endgroup$
– Ray Butterworth
1 min ago
add a comment |
user65791 is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
user65791 is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
user65791 is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
user65791 is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
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$begingroup$
Possible duplicate of What is the minimum human population necessary for a sustainable colony?
$endgroup$
– JBH
6 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
I voted to close as a duplicate of the linked Q because, when you think about it, they're the same thing. Whether a colony isolated from the motherland or the motherland devastated by an apocalypse (or anything else), the result is the minimum number of people needed to sustain the technology, industry, and culture of the parent society.
$endgroup$
– JBH
6 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
@user65791 and I'm explaining that the premise is fundamentally identical. To separate the two, you need to explain what cannot be accommodated by a colony that must be accommodated on the home world to meet your expectations. (Which, if you think about it, is a rationalization why you need more people.)
$endgroup$
– JBH
5 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
@user65791 so I suggest that you clarify your question. JBH is correct that without such clarification, related question gives you AN answer.
$endgroup$
– Alexander
5 hours ago
1
$begingroup$
@user65791 amongst the millions of survivors of your holocaust, surely there are every one of those trained specialists. You asked for the minimum. The minimum exists when the only people remaining are the trained specialists. The other question provides that answer. If the minimum isn't what you're looking for, then you need to edit your question.
$endgroup$
– JBH
5 hours ago