What is the average number of draws it takes before you can not draw any more cards from the Deck of Many Things?Is there an upper limit on the number of cards a character can declare to draw from the Deck of Many Things?Does the Talons card affect the Deck of Many Things?Deck of Many Things vs. Forced DreamWhat does Joker “with TM” mean in the Deck of Many Things?How does it work when the Deck of Many Things activates at once, but you draw Donjon?How does the keep mentioned in the Throne card from the Deck of Many Things work?Does the Star card from the Deck of Many Things increase your ability score above 20?What to do if a player gets the “Donjon” card from the Deck of Many Things?How long can someone survive in the extradimensional sphere mentioned in the Donjon card from the Deck of Many Things?What plane can the keep acquired via the Throne card from the Deck of Many Things be on?Drawing as many cards as possible, what are the odds of drawing a beneficial order of cards from the Deck of Many Things?Is there an upper limit on the number of cards a character can declare to draw from the Deck of Many Things?

When do flights get cancelled due to fog?

What are the effects of abstaining from eating a certain flavor?

Shipped package arrived - didn't order, possible scam?

NOLOCK or Read Uncommitted locking / latching behaviours

What does the multimeter dial do internally?

Why is whale hunting treated differently from hunting other animals?

Intern not wearing safety equipment; how could I have handled this differently?

How to deal with account scam and fraud?

How to gather entities into sets?

Who goes first? Person disembarking bus or the bicycle?

Category-theoretic treatment of diffs, patches and merging?

Will Jimmy fall off his platform?

Why did Robert F. Kennedy loathe Lyndon B. Johnson?

Computer name naming convention for security

How did the IEC decide to create kibibytes?

Tesco's Burger Relish Best Before End date number

What are some bad ways to subvert tropes?

Is it ok for parents to kiss and romance with each other while their 2- to 8-year-old child watches?

How do I talk to my wife about unrealistic expectations?

What's the difference between a type and a kind?

Can a USB hub be used to access a drive from two devices?

Why SQL does not use the indexed view?

What are the consequences for a developed nation to not accept any refugee?

Examples of fluid (including air) being used to transmit digital data?



What is the average number of draws it takes before you can not draw any more cards from the Deck of Many Things?


Is there an upper limit on the number of cards a character can declare to draw from the Deck of Many Things?Does the Talons card affect the Deck of Many Things?Deck of Many Things vs. Forced DreamWhat does Joker “with TM” mean in the Deck of Many Things?How does it work when the Deck of Many Things activates at once, but you draw Donjon?How does the keep mentioned in the Throne card from the Deck of Many Things work?Does the Star card from the Deck of Many Things increase your ability score above 20?What to do if a player gets the “Donjon” card from the Deck of Many Things?How long can someone survive in the extradimensional sphere mentioned in the Donjon card from the Deck of Many Things?What plane can the keep acquired via the Throne card from the Deck of Many Things be on?Drawing as many cards as possible, what are the odds of drawing a beneficial order of cards from the Deck of Many Things?Is there an upper limit on the number of cards a character can declare to draw from the Deck of Many Things?






.everyoneloves__top-leaderboard:empty,.everyoneloves__mid-leaderboard:empty,.everyoneloves__bot-mid-leaderboard:empty margin-bottom:0;








10












$begingroup$


When thinking about this question regarding an upper limit on the number of draws, I wondered what would be the expected number of draws you can actually pull off if you called for a large number of draws.



The limiting factors I see are the cards Donjon and The Void which say:




You draw no more cards




...and Talons which would destroy the deck:




Every magic item you wear or carry disintegrates.




The ideal answer would discuss any difference between a 13-card and 22-card deck.










share|improve this question











$endgroup$











  • $begingroup$
    Can't you put the deck on a table and draw from it? Then Talons will not affect it.
    $endgroup$
    – Szega
    7 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    @Szega probably worth its own question, which I asked here
    $endgroup$
    – David Coffron
    6 hours ago

















10












$begingroup$


When thinking about this question regarding an upper limit on the number of draws, I wondered what would be the expected number of draws you can actually pull off if you called for a large number of draws.



The limiting factors I see are the cards Donjon and The Void which say:




You draw no more cards




...and Talons which would destroy the deck:




Every magic item you wear or carry disintegrates.




The ideal answer would discuss any difference between a 13-card and 22-card deck.










share|improve this question











$endgroup$











  • $begingroup$
    Can't you put the deck on a table and draw from it? Then Talons will not affect it.
    $endgroup$
    – Szega
    7 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    @Szega probably worth its own question, which I asked here
    $endgroup$
    – David Coffron
    6 hours ago













10












10








10





$begingroup$


When thinking about this question regarding an upper limit on the number of draws, I wondered what would be the expected number of draws you can actually pull off if you called for a large number of draws.



The limiting factors I see are the cards Donjon and The Void which say:




You draw no more cards




...and Talons which would destroy the deck:




Every magic item you wear or carry disintegrates.




The ideal answer would discuss any difference between a 13-card and 22-card deck.










share|improve this question











$endgroup$




When thinking about this question regarding an upper limit on the number of draws, I wondered what would be the expected number of draws you can actually pull off if you called for a large number of draws.



The limiting factors I see are the cards Donjon and The Void which say:




You draw no more cards




...and Talons which would destroy the deck:




Every magic item you wear or carry disintegrates.




The ideal answer would discuss any difference between a 13-card and 22-card deck.







dnd-5e magic-items statistics






share|improve this question















share|improve this question













share|improve this question




share|improve this question








edited 7 hours ago









Sdjz

17.9k6 gold badges90 silver badges141 bronze badges




17.9k6 gold badges90 silver badges141 bronze badges










asked 8 hours ago









David CoffronDavid Coffron

45.4k6 gold badges165 silver badges325 bronze badges




45.4k6 gold badges165 silver badges325 bronze badges











  • $begingroup$
    Can't you put the deck on a table and draw from it? Then Talons will not affect it.
    $endgroup$
    – Szega
    7 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    @Szega probably worth its own question, which I asked here
    $endgroup$
    – David Coffron
    6 hours ago
















  • $begingroup$
    Can't you put the deck on a table and draw from it? Then Talons will not affect it.
    $endgroup$
    – Szega
    7 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    @Szega probably worth its own question, which I asked here
    $endgroup$
    – David Coffron
    6 hours ago















$begingroup$
Can't you put the deck on a table and draw from it? Then Talons will not affect it.
$endgroup$
– Szega
7 hours ago




$begingroup$
Can't you put the deck on a table and draw from it? Then Talons will not affect it.
$endgroup$
– Szega
7 hours ago












$begingroup$
@Szega probably worth its own question, which I asked here
$endgroup$
– David Coffron
6 hours ago




$begingroup$
@Szega probably worth its own question, which I asked here
$endgroup$
– David Coffron
6 hours ago










3 Answers
3






active

oldest

votes


















7












$begingroup$

7.166 for a 22-card deck, 12.5 for a 13-card deck



Xirema has it basically right, albeit approximately. But we can do this without code and get a precise answer.



Take a 20-card deck. Odds of drawing a terminal card are 3/20, so expected number of draws are 20/3, which is 6.66...



Now take a 21-card deck. We have a 4 in 21 chance of pulling either the self-removing card or a terminal, so there are 21/4 (5.25) draws on average until this happens. We then have a 3/4 chance of being done and a 1/4 chance of being in the 20-card deck situation. So expected number of draws to draw a terminal is 5.25 + 1/4(6.66) = 6.9166...



Finally, a 22-card deck gives us 22/5 (4.4) draws until we hit a terminal or self-removing card, so the expected number of possible draws is 4.4 + 2/5(6.9166) = 7.166.



We can do similar for the 13-card example - a 12-card deck averages 12 draws, then the 13-card deck gives you an expectation of 13/2 + 1/2(12) = 6.5 + 6 = 12.5






share|improve this answer











$endgroup$




















    8












    $begingroup$

    For a 22 Card Deck, the average draw is approximately 7.161 cards



    Knowing that the Fools and Jester Cards will remove themselves from the deck if drawn, we therefore know that the odds of drawing one of the "stopper" cards (Talons, Donjon, or The Void) is 3/22, 3/21, or 3/20, depending on whether those two cards have been drawn yet.



    So on the first draw, the odds we hit a stopper card is 3/22, or 13.64%. There's a 19/22 chance we did not draw a stopper card, but of those 19 trials, 2 of them now involve a 21 card deck.



    So for the second draw, the odds we draw a stopper is (17/19 * 3/22) + (2/19 * 3/21), or about 13.705%; the odds that we therefore draw this stopper after exactly 2 draws is 13.705% * 19/22, which is 11.836%.



    We continue this process indefinitely, starting with the third draw where some of the possible decks have 22 cards, some have 21, and some have 20.



    For the purpose of giving my calculations a finite stopping point (because hypothetically a person could just keep drawing forever, never hitting one of those cards), I'm presuming that if the odds we haven't drawn one of the stopper cards is less than 1/10000, or 0.01%, then it's okay to simply assume it doesn't happen. So as a result, the margin of error on our mean (which we truncate to 3 decimal digits) is roughly 1 ULP.



    Using this process, we can therefore see that the Odds of drawing a stopper card after X draws is this regression:



    1 draws: 13.636%
    2 draws: 11.836%
    3 draws: 10.262%
    4 draws: 8.889%
    5 draws: 7.692%
    6 draws: 6.650%
    7 draws: 5.744%
    8 draws: 4.958%
    9 draws: 4.276%
    10 draws: 3.685%
    11 draws: 3.173%
    12 draws: 2.731%
    13 draws: 2.349%
    14 draws: 2.019%
    15 draws: 1.734%
    16 draws: 1.489%
    17 draws: 1.278%
    18 draws: 1.096%
    19 draws: 0.940%
    20 draws: 0.806%
    21 draws: 0.690%
    22 draws: 0.591%
    23 draws: 0.506%
    24 draws: 0.433%
    25 draws: 0.370%
    26 draws: 0.317%
    27 draws: 0.271%
    28 draws: 0.231%
    29 draws: 0.198%
    30 draws: 0.169%
    31 draws: 0.144%
    32 draws: 0.123%
    33 draws: 0.105%
    34 draws: 0.090%
    35 draws: 0.077%
    36 draws: 0.065%
    37 draws: 0.056%
    38 draws: 0.048%
    39 draws: 0.041%
    40 draws: 0.035%
    41 draws: 0.029%
    42 draws: 0.025%
    43 draws: 0.021%
    44 draws: 0.018%
    45 draws: 0.016%
    46 draws: 0.013%
    47 draws: 0.011%
    48 draws: 0.010%
    49 draws: 0.008%
    50 draws: 0.007%
    51 draws: 0.006%
    52 draws: 0.005%
    53 draws: 0.004%
    54 draws: 0.004%
    55 draws: 0.003%
    56 draws: 0.003%
    57 draws: 0.002%
    58 draws: 0.002%
    59 draws: 0.002%
    >=60 draws: 0.009%
    ====
    Mean: 7.161


    Code used to produce this output found here: https://godbolt.org/z/t47H5V



    For a 13 Card Deck, the average draw is approximately 12.488 cards



    The main differences in a 13-card deck, aside from just being smaller, is the fact that some of the key relevant cards, like Talons and Dunjon (which cause the user to stop drawing cards) or Fool (which is one of the cards that removes itself) are no longer in the deck at all. This has two mechanical changes:



    • Drawing a specific card from the deck either has a 1/13 chance or a 1/12 chance, depending on whether Jester has been pulled or not.

    • The overall odds of drawing a "Stopper" card has reduced to 1/13 or 1/12, which is much less than the 3/22, 3/21, or 3/20 chances we were dealing with previously.

    As a result, this deck tends towards much longer draws by the user.



    1 draws: 7.692%
    2 draws: 7.150%
    3 draws: 6.638%
    4 draws: 6.155%
    5 draws: 5.702%
    6 draws: 5.277%
    7 draws: 4.880%
    8 draws: 4.510%
    9 draws: 4.165%
    10 draws: 3.843%
    11 draws: 3.545%
    12 draws: 3.268%
    13 draws: 3.012%
    14 draws: 2.774%
    15 draws: 2.554%
    16 draws: 2.351%
    17 draws: 2.163%
    18 draws: 1.989%
    19 draws: 1.829%
    20 draws: 1.682%
    21 draws: 1.546%
    22 draws: 1.420%
    23 draws: 1.305%
    24 draws: 1.199%
    25 draws: 1.101%
    26 draws: 1.011%
    27 draws: 0.928%
    28 draws: 0.852%
    29 draws: 0.782%
    30 draws: 0.718%
    31 draws: 0.659%
    32 draws: 0.605%
    33 draws: 0.555%
    34 draws: 0.509%
    35 draws: 0.467%
    36 draws: 0.428%
    37 draws: 0.393%
    38 draws: 0.361%
    39 draws: 0.331%
    40 draws: 0.303%
    41 draws: 0.278%
    42 draws: 0.255%
    43 draws: 0.234%
    44 draws: 0.215%
    45 draws: 0.197%
    46 draws: 0.180%
    47 draws: 0.165%
    48 draws: 0.152%
    49 draws: 0.139%
    50 draws: 0.128%
    51 draws: 0.117%
    52 draws: 0.107%
    53 draws: 0.098%
    54 draws: 0.090%
    55 draws: 0.083%
    56 draws: 0.076%
    57 draws: 0.069%
    58 draws: 0.064%
    59 draws: 0.058%
    60 draws: 0.054%
    61 draws: 0.049%
    62 draws: 0.045%
    63 draws: 0.041%
    64 draws: 0.038%
    65 draws: 0.035%
    66 draws: 0.032%
    67 draws: 0.029%
    68 draws: 0.027%
    69 draws: 0.024%
    70 draws: 0.022%
    71 draws: 0.021%
    72 draws: 0.019%
    73 draws: 0.017%
    74 draws: 0.016%
    75 draws: 0.015%
    76 draws: 0.013%
    77 draws: 0.012%
    78 draws: 0.011%
    79 draws: 0.010%
    80 draws: 0.009%
    81 draws: 0.009%
    82 draws: 0.008%
    83 draws: 0.007%
    84 draws: 0.007%
    85 draws: 0.006%
    86 draws: 0.006%
    87 draws: 0.005%
    88 draws: 0.005%
    89 draws: 0.004%
    90 draws: 0.004%
    91 draws: 0.004%
    92 draws: 0.003%
    93 draws: 0.003%
    94 draws: 0.003%
    95 draws: 0.003%
    96 draws: 0.002%
    97 draws: 0.002%
    98 draws: 0.002%
    99 draws: 0.002%
    100 draws: 0.002%
    101 draws: 0.002%
    102 draws: 0.001%
    103 draws: 0.001%
    104 draws: 0.001%
    105 draws: 0.001%
    106 draws: 0.001%
    107 draws: 0.001%
    >=108 draws: 0.010%
    ====
    Mean: 12.488


    Code used to produce this output found here: https://godbolt.org/z/npw9w-






    share|improve this answer









    $endgroup$




















      3












      $begingroup$

      Technically, you can draw the entire deck if you like.



      Others have handled the deep-math version of this answer, and I salute them, but if all you want to do is get as many cards to trigger as possible, the actual upper limit is much simpler



      • Declare that you intend to draw the entire deck.

      • Wait 1 hour.

      • Every card in the deck leaps out and takes effect simultaneously.

      It's probably a bad idea.



      Your body will be imprisoned in an extradimensional space. Your soul will be imprisoned in an object in a place of the DM's choice, guarded by one or more powerful monsters. An Avatar of Death shows up and immediately becomes frustrated. You receive money, lands, and magic items, all of which immediately turn to dust. Your alignment swaps. You lose 1d4+1 int, and gain +2 to something else. On the bright side, you do get 1d3 wish spells (which cannot save you) and the ability to decide that that was a bad idea and that you shouldn't have done it after all. Perhaps you could use that to exploit the Vizier to get an answer to one question more or less safely? I wouldn't bet on it.






      share|improve this answer









      $endgroup$















        Your Answer








        StackExchange.ready(function()
        var channelOptions =
        tags: "".split(" "),
        id: "122"
        ;
        initTagRenderer("".split(" "), "".split(" "), channelOptions);

        StackExchange.using("externalEditor", function()
        // Have to fire editor after snippets, if snippets enabled
        if (StackExchange.settings.snippets.snippetsEnabled)
        StackExchange.using("snippets", function()
        createEditor();
        );

        else
        createEditor();

        );

        function createEditor()
        StackExchange.prepareEditor(
        heartbeatType: 'answer',
        autoActivateHeartbeat: false,
        convertImagesToLinks: false,
        noModals: true,
        showLowRepImageUploadWarning: true,
        reputationToPostImages: null,
        bindNavPrevention: true,
        postfix: "",
        imageUploader:
        brandingHtml: "Powered by u003ca class="icon-imgur-white" href="https://imgur.com/"u003eu003c/au003e",
        contentPolicyHtml: "User contributions licensed under u003ca href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/"u003ecc by-sa 3.0 with attribution requiredu003c/au003e u003ca href="https://stackoverflow.com/legal/content-policy"u003e(content policy)u003c/au003e",
        allowUrls: true
        ,
        noCode: true, onDemand: true,
        discardSelector: ".discard-answer"
        ,immediatelyShowMarkdownHelp:true
        );



        );













        draft saved

        draft discarded


















        StackExchange.ready(
        function ()
        StackExchange.openid.initPostLogin('.new-post-login', 'https%3a%2f%2frpg.stackexchange.com%2fquestions%2f151177%2fwhat-is-the-average-number-of-draws-it-takes-before-you-can-not-draw-any-more-ca%23new-answer', 'question_page');

        );

        Post as a guest















        Required, but never shown

























        3 Answers
        3






        active

        oldest

        votes








        3 Answers
        3






        active

        oldest

        votes









        active

        oldest

        votes






        active

        oldest

        votes









        7












        $begingroup$

        7.166 for a 22-card deck, 12.5 for a 13-card deck



        Xirema has it basically right, albeit approximately. But we can do this without code and get a precise answer.



        Take a 20-card deck. Odds of drawing a terminal card are 3/20, so expected number of draws are 20/3, which is 6.66...



        Now take a 21-card deck. We have a 4 in 21 chance of pulling either the self-removing card or a terminal, so there are 21/4 (5.25) draws on average until this happens. We then have a 3/4 chance of being done and a 1/4 chance of being in the 20-card deck situation. So expected number of draws to draw a terminal is 5.25 + 1/4(6.66) = 6.9166...



        Finally, a 22-card deck gives us 22/5 (4.4) draws until we hit a terminal or self-removing card, so the expected number of possible draws is 4.4 + 2/5(6.9166) = 7.166.



        We can do similar for the 13-card example - a 12-card deck averages 12 draws, then the 13-card deck gives you an expectation of 13/2 + 1/2(12) = 6.5 + 6 = 12.5






        share|improve this answer











        $endgroup$

















          7












          $begingroup$

          7.166 for a 22-card deck, 12.5 for a 13-card deck



          Xirema has it basically right, albeit approximately. But we can do this without code and get a precise answer.



          Take a 20-card deck. Odds of drawing a terminal card are 3/20, so expected number of draws are 20/3, which is 6.66...



          Now take a 21-card deck. We have a 4 in 21 chance of pulling either the self-removing card or a terminal, so there are 21/4 (5.25) draws on average until this happens. We then have a 3/4 chance of being done and a 1/4 chance of being in the 20-card deck situation. So expected number of draws to draw a terminal is 5.25 + 1/4(6.66) = 6.9166...



          Finally, a 22-card deck gives us 22/5 (4.4) draws until we hit a terminal or self-removing card, so the expected number of possible draws is 4.4 + 2/5(6.9166) = 7.166.



          We can do similar for the 13-card example - a 12-card deck averages 12 draws, then the 13-card deck gives you an expectation of 13/2 + 1/2(12) = 6.5 + 6 = 12.5






          share|improve this answer











          $endgroup$















            7












            7








            7





            $begingroup$

            7.166 for a 22-card deck, 12.5 for a 13-card deck



            Xirema has it basically right, albeit approximately. But we can do this without code and get a precise answer.



            Take a 20-card deck. Odds of drawing a terminal card are 3/20, so expected number of draws are 20/3, which is 6.66...



            Now take a 21-card deck. We have a 4 in 21 chance of pulling either the self-removing card or a terminal, so there are 21/4 (5.25) draws on average until this happens. We then have a 3/4 chance of being done and a 1/4 chance of being in the 20-card deck situation. So expected number of draws to draw a terminal is 5.25 + 1/4(6.66) = 6.9166...



            Finally, a 22-card deck gives us 22/5 (4.4) draws until we hit a terminal or self-removing card, so the expected number of possible draws is 4.4 + 2/5(6.9166) = 7.166.



            We can do similar for the 13-card example - a 12-card deck averages 12 draws, then the 13-card deck gives you an expectation of 13/2 + 1/2(12) = 6.5 + 6 = 12.5






            share|improve this answer











            $endgroup$



            7.166 for a 22-card deck, 12.5 for a 13-card deck



            Xirema has it basically right, albeit approximately. But we can do this without code and get a precise answer.



            Take a 20-card deck. Odds of drawing a terminal card are 3/20, so expected number of draws are 20/3, which is 6.66...



            Now take a 21-card deck. We have a 4 in 21 chance of pulling either the self-removing card or a terminal, so there are 21/4 (5.25) draws on average until this happens. We then have a 3/4 chance of being done and a 1/4 chance of being in the 20-card deck situation. So expected number of draws to draw a terminal is 5.25 + 1/4(6.66) = 6.9166...



            Finally, a 22-card deck gives us 22/5 (4.4) draws until we hit a terminal or self-removing card, so the expected number of possible draws is 4.4 + 2/5(6.9166) = 7.166.



            We can do similar for the 13-card example - a 12-card deck averages 12 draws, then the 13-card deck gives you an expectation of 13/2 + 1/2(12) = 6.5 + 6 = 12.5







            share|improve this answer














            share|improve this answer



            share|improve this answer








            edited 4 hours ago

























            answered 7 hours ago









            BlueHairedMeerkatBlueHairedMeerkat

            2,0166 silver badges17 bronze badges




            2,0166 silver badges17 bronze badges























                8












                $begingroup$

                For a 22 Card Deck, the average draw is approximately 7.161 cards



                Knowing that the Fools and Jester Cards will remove themselves from the deck if drawn, we therefore know that the odds of drawing one of the "stopper" cards (Talons, Donjon, or The Void) is 3/22, 3/21, or 3/20, depending on whether those two cards have been drawn yet.



                So on the first draw, the odds we hit a stopper card is 3/22, or 13.64%. There's a 19/22 chance we did not draw a stopper card, but of those 19 trials, 2 of them now involve a 21 card deck.



                So for the second draw, the odds we draw a stopper is (17/19 * 3/22) + (2/19 * 3/21), or about 13.705%; the odds that we therefore draw this stopper after exactly 2 draws is 13.705% * 19/22, which is 11.836%.



                We continue this process indefinitely, starting with the third draw where some of the possible decks have 22 cards, some have 21, and some have 20.



                For the purpose of giving my calculations a finite stopping point (because hypothetically a person could just keep drawing forever, never hitting one of those cards), I'm presuming that if the odds we haven't drawn one of the stopper cards is less than 1/10000, or 0.01%, then it's okay to simply assume it doesn't happen. So as a result, the margin of error on our mean (which we truncate to 3 decimal digits) is roughly 1 ULP.



                Using this process, we can therefore see that the Odds of drawing a stopper card after X draws is this regression:



                1 draws: 13.636%
                2 draws: 11.836%
                3 draws: 10.262%
                4 draws: 8.889%
                5 draws: 7.692%
                6 draws: 6.650%
                7 draws: 5.744%
                8 draws: 4.958%
                9 draws: 4.276%
                10 draws: 3.685%
                11 draws: 3.173%
                12 draws: 2.731%
                13 draws: 2.349%
                14 draws: 2.019%
                15 draws: 1.734%
                16 draws: 1.489%
                17 draws: 1.278%
                18 draws: 1.096%
                19 draws: 0.940%
                20 draws: 0.806%
                21 draws: 0.690%
                22 draws: 0.591%
                23 draws: 0.506%
                24 draws: 0.433%
                25 draws: 0.370%
                26 draws: 0.317%
                27 draws: 0.271%
                28 draws: 0.231%
                29 draws: 0.198%
                30 draws: 0.169%
                31 draws: 0.144%
                32 draws: 0.123%
                33 draws: 0.105%
                34 draws: 0.090%
                35 draws: 0.077%
                36 draws: 0.065%
                37 draws: 0.056%
                38 draws: 0.048%
                39 draws: 0.041%
                40 draws: 0.035%
                41 draws: 0.029%
                42 draws: 0.025%
                43 draws: 0.021%
                44 draws: 0.018%
                45 draws: 0.016%
                46 draws: 0.013%
                47 draws: 0.011%
                48 draws: 0.010%
                49 draws: 0.008%
                50 draws: 0.007%
                51 draws: 0.006%
                52 draws: 0.005%
                53 draws: 0.004%
                54 draws: 0.004%
                55 draws: 0.003%
                56 draws: 0.003%
                57 draws: 0.002%
                58 draws: 0.002%
                59 draws: 0.002%
                >=60 draws: 0.009%
                ====
                Mean: 7.161


                Code used to produce this output found here: https://godbolt.org/z/t47H5V



                For a 13 Card Deck, the average draw is approximately 12.488 cards



                The main differences in a 13-card deck, aside from just being smaller, is the fact that some of the key relevant cards, like Talons and Dunjon (which cause the user to stop drawing cards) or Fool (which is one of the cards that removes itself) are no longer in the deck at all. This has two mechanical changes:



                • Drawing a specific card from the deck either has a 1/13 chance or a 1/12 chance, depending on whether Jester has been pulled or not.

                • The overall odds of drawing a "Stopper" card has reduced to 1/13 or 1/12, which is much less than the 3/22, 3/21, or 3/20 chances we were dealing with previously.

                As a result, this deck tends towards much longer draws by the user.



                1 draws: 7.692%
                2 draws: 7.150%
                3 draws: 6.638%
                4 draws: 6.155%
                5 draws: 5.702%
                6 draws: 5.277%
                7 draws: 4.880%
                8 draws: 4.510%
                9 draws: 4.165%
                10 draws: 3.843%
                11 draws: 3.545%
                12 draws: 3.268%
                13 draws: 3.012%
                14 draws: 2.774%
                15 draws: 2.554%
                16 draws: 2.351%
                17 draws: 2.163%
                18 draws: 1.989%
                19 draws: 1.829%
                20 draws: 1.682%
                21 draws: 1.546%
                22 draws: 1.420%
                23 draws: 1.305%
                24 draws: 1.199%
                25 draws: 1.101%
                26 draws: 1.011%
                27 draws: 0.928%
                28 draws: 0.852%
                29 draws: 0.782%
                30 draws: 0.718%
                31 draws: 0.659%
                32 draws: 0.605%
                33 draws: 0.555%
                34 draws: 0.509%
                35 draws: 0.467%
                36 draws: 0.428%
                37 draws: 0.393%
                38 draws: 0.361%
                39 draws: 0.331%
                40 draws: 0.303%
                41 draws: 0.278%
                42 draws: 0.255%
                43 draws: 0.234%
                44 draws: 0.215%
                45 draws: 0.197%
                46 draws: 0.180%
                47 draws: 0.165%
                48 draws: 0.152%
                49 draws: 0.139%
                50 draws: 0.128%
                51 draws: 0.117%
                52 draws: 0.107%
                53 draws: 0.098%
                54 draws: 0.090%
                55 draws: 0.083%
                56 draws: 0.076%
                57 draws: 0.069%
                58 draws: 0.064%
                59 draws: 0.058%
                60 draws: 0.054%
                61 draws: 0.049%
                62 draws: 0.045%
                63 draws: 0.041%
                64 draws: 0.038%
                65 draws: 0.035%
                66 draws: 0.032%
                67 draws: 0.029%
                68 draws: 0.027%
                69 draws: 0.024%
                70 draws: 0.022%
                71 draws: 0.021%
                72 draws: 0.019%
                73 draws: 0.017%
                74 draws: 0.016%
                75 draws: 0.015%
                76 draws: 0.013%
                77 draws: 0.012%
                78 draws: 0.011%
                79 draws: 0.010%
                80 draws: 0.009%
                81 draws: 0.009%
                82 draws: 0.008%
                83 draws: 0.007%
                84 draws: 0.007%
                85 draws: 0.006%
                86 draws: 0.006%
                87 draws: 0.005%
                88 draws: 0.005%
                89 draws: 0.004%
                90 draws: 0.004%
                91 draws: 0.004%
                92 draws: 0.003%
                93 draws: 0.003%
                94 draws: 0.003%
                95 draws: 0.003%
                96 draws: 0.002%
                97 draws: 0.002%
                98 draws: 0.002%
                99 draws: 0.002%
                100 draws: 0.002%
                101 draws: 0.002%
                102 draws: 0.001%
                103 draws: 0.001%
                104 draws: 0.001%
                105 draws: 0.001%
                106 draws: 0.001%
                107 draws: 0.001%
                >=108 draws: 0.010%
                ====
                Mean: 12.488


                Code used to produce this output found here: https://godbolt.org/z/npw9w-






                share|improve this answer









                $endgroup$

















                  8












                  $begingroup$

                  For a 22 Card Deck, the average draw is approximately 7.161 cards



                  Knowing that the Fools and Jester Cards will remove themselves from the deck if drawn, we therefore know that the odds of drawing one of the "stopper" cards (Talons, Donjon, or The Void) is 3/22, 3/21, or 3/20, depending on whether those two cards have been drawn yet.



                  So on the first draw, the odds we hit a stopper card is 3/22, or 13.64%. There's a 19/22 chance we did not draw a stopper card, but of those 19 trials, 2 of them now involve a 21 card deck.



                  So for the second draw, the odds we draw a stopper is (17/19 * 3/22) + (2/19 * 3/21), or about 13.705%; the odds that we therefore draw this stopper after exactly 2 draws is 13.705% * 19/22, which is 11.836%.



                  We continue this process indefinitely, starting with the third draw where some of the possible decks have 22 cards, some have 21, and some have 20.



                  For the purpose of giving my calculations a finite stopping point (because hypothetically a person could just keep drawing forever, never hitting one of those cards), I'm presuming that if the odds we haven't drawn one of the stopper cards is less than 1/10000, or 0.01%, then it's okay to simply assume it doesn't happen. So as a result, the margin of error on our mean (which we truncate to 3 decimal digits) is roughly 1 ULP.



                  Using this process, we can therefore see that the Odds of drawing a stopper card after X draws is this regression:



                  1 draws: 13.636%
                  2 draws: 11.836%
                  3 draws: 10.262%
                  4 draws: 8.889%
                  5 draws: 7.692%
                  6 draws: 6.650%
                  7 draws: 5.744%
                  8 draws: 4.958%
                  9 draws: 4.276%
                  10 draws: 3.685%
                  11 draws: 3.173%
                  12 draws: 2.731%
                  13 draws: 2.349%
                  14 draws: 2.019%
                  15 draws: 1.734%
                  16 draws: 1.489%
                  17 draws: 1.278%
                  18 draws: 1.096%
                  19 draws: 0.940%
                  20 draws: 0.806%
                  21 draws: 0.690%
                  22 draws: 0.591%
                  23 draws: 0.506%
                  24 draws: 0.433%
                  25 draws: 0.370%
                  26 draws: 0.317%
                  27 draws: 0.271%
                  28 draws: 0.231%
                  29 draws: 0.198%
                  30 draws: 0.169%
                  31 draws: 0.144%
                  32 draws: 0.123%
                  33 draws: 0.105%
                  34 draws: 0.090%
                  35 draws: 0.077%
                  36 draws: 0.065%
                  37 draws: 0.056%
                  38 draws: 0.048%
                  39 draws: 0.041%
                  40 draws: 0.035%
                  41 draws: 0.029%
                  42 draws: 0.025%
                  43 draws: 0.021%
                  44 draws: 0.018%
                  45 draws: 0.016%
                  46 draws: 0.013%
                  47 draws: 0.011%
                  48 draws: 0.010%
                  49 draws: 0.008%
                  50 draws: 0.007%
                  51 draws: 0.006%
                  52 draws: 0.005%
                  53 draws: 0.004%
                  54 draws: 0.004%
                  55 draws: 0.003%
                  56 draws: 0.003%
                  57 draws: 0.002%
                  58 draws: 0.002%
                  59 draws: 0.002%
                  >=60 draws: 0.009%
                  ====
                  Mean: 7.161


                  Code used to produce this output found here: https://godbolt.org/z/t47H5V



                  For a 13 Card Deck, the average draw is approximately 12.488 cards



                  The main differences in a 13-card deck, aside from just being smaller, is the fact that some of the key relevant cards, like Talons and Dunjon (which cause the user to stop drawing cards) or Fool (which is one of the cards that removes itself) are no longer in the deck at all. This has two mechanical changes:



                  • Drawing a specific card from the deck either has a 1/13 chance or a 1/12 chance, depending on whether Jester has been pulled or not.

                  • The overall odds of drawing a "Stopper" card has reduced to 1/13 or 1/12, which is much less than the 3/22, 3/21, or 3/20 chances we were dealing with previously.

                  As a result, this deck tends towards much longer draws by the user.



                  1 draws: 7.692%
                  2 draws: 7.150%
                  3 draws: 6.638%
                  4 draws: 6.155%
                  5 draws: 5.702%
                  6 draws: 5.277%
                  7 draws: 4.880%
                  8 draws: 4.510%
                  9 draws: 4.165%
                  10 draws: 3.843%
                  11 draws: 3.545%
                  12 draws: 3.268%
                  13 draws: 3.012%
                  14 draws: 2.774%
                  15 draws: 2.554%
                  16 draws: 2.351%
                  17 draws: 2.163%
                  18 draws: 1.989%
                  19 draws: 1.829%
                  20 draws: 1.682%
                  21 draws: 1.546%
                  22 draws: 1.420%
                  23 draws: 1.305%
                  24 draws: 1.199%
                  25 draws: 1.101%
                  26 draws: 1.011%
                  27 draws: 0.928%
                  28 draws: 0.852%
                  29 draws: 0.782%
                  30 draws: 0.718%
                  31 draws: 0.659%
                  32 draws: 0.605%
                  33 draws: 0.555%
                  34 draws: 0.509%
                  35 draws: 0.467%
                  36 draws: 0.428%
                  37 draws: 0.393%
                  38 draws: 0.361%
                  39 draws: 0.331%
                  40 draws: 0.303%
                  41 draws: 0.278%
                  42 draws: 0.255%
                  43 draws: 0.234%
                  44 draws: 0.215%
                  45 draws: 0.197%
                  46 draws: 0.180%
                  47 draws: 0.165%
                  48 draws: 0.152%
                  49 draws: 0.139%
                  50 draws: 0.128%
                  51 draws: 0.117%
                  52 draws: 0.107%
                  53 draws: 0.098%
                  54 draws: 0.090%
                  55 draws: 0.083%
                  56 draws: 0.076%
                  57 draws: 0.069%
                  58 draws: 0.064%
                  59 draws: 0.058%
                  60 draws: 0.054%
                  61 draws: 0.049%
                  62 draws: 0.045%
                  63 draws: 0.041%
                  64 draws: 0.038%
                  65 draws: 0.035%
                  66 draws: 0.032%
                  67 draws: 0.029%
                  68 draws: 0.027%
                  69 draws: 0.024%
                  70 draws: 0.022%
                  71 draws: 0.021%
                  72 draws: 0.019%
                  73 draws: 0.017%
                  74 draws: 0.016%
                  75 draws: 0.015%
                  76 draws: 0.013%
                  77 draws: 0.012%
                  78 draws: 0.011%
                  79 draws: 0.010%
                  80 draws: 0.009%
                  81 draws: 0.009%
                  82 draws: 0.008%
                  83 draws: 0.007%
                  84 draws: 0.007%
                  85 draws: 0.006%
                  86 draws: 0.006%
                  87 draws: 0.005%
                  88 draws: 0.005%
                  89 draws: 0.004%
                  90 draws: 0.004%
                  91 draws: 0.004%
                  92 draws: 0.003%
                  93 draws: 0.003%
                  94 draws: 0.003%
                  95 draws: 0.003%
                  96 draws: 0.002%
                  97 draws: 0.002%
                  98 draws: 0.002%
                  99 draws: 0.002%
                  100 draws: 0.002%
                  101 draws: 0.002%
                  102 draws: 0.001%
                  103 draws: 0.001%
                  104 draws: 0.001%
                  105 draws: 0.001%
                  106 draws: 0.001%
                  107 draws: 0.001%
                  >=108 draws: 0.010%
                  ====
                  Mean: 12.488


                  Code used to produce this output found here: https://godbolt.org/z/npw9w-






                  share|improve this answer









                  $endgroup$















                    8












                    8








                    8





                    $begingroup$

                    For a 22 Card Deck, the average draw is approximately 7.161 cards



                    Knowing that the Fools and Jester Cards will remove themselves from the deck if drawn, we therefore know that the odds of drawing one of the "stopper" cards (Talons, Donjon, or The Void) is 3/22, 3/21, or 3/20, depending on whether those two cards have been drawn yet.



                    So on the first draw, the odds we hit a stopper card is 3/22, or 13.64%. There's a 19/22 chance we did not draw a stopper card, but of those 19 trials, 2 of them now involve a 21 card deck.



                    So for the second draw, the odds we draw a stopper is (17/19 * 3/22) + (2/19 * 3/21), or about 13.705%; the odds that we therefore draw this stopper after exactly 2 draws is 13.705% * 19/22, which is 11.836%.



                    We continue this process indefinitely, starting with the third draw where some of the possible decks have 22 cards, some have 21, and some have 20.



                    For the purpose of giving my calculations a finite stopping point (because hypothetically a person could just keep drawing forever, never hitting one of those cards), I'm presuming that if the odds we haven't drawn one of the stopper cards is less than 1/10000, or 0.01%, then it's okay to simply assume it doesn't happen. So as a result, the margin of error on our mean (which we truncate to 3 decimal digits) is roughly 1 ULP.



                    Using this process, we can therefore see that the Odds of drawing a stopper card after X draws is this regression:



                    1 draws: 13.636%
                    2 draws: 11.836%
                    3 draws: 10.262%
                    4 draws: 8.889%
                    5 draws: 7.692%
                    6 draws: 6.650%
                    7 draws: 5.744%
                    8 draws: 4.958%
                    9 draws: 4.276%
                    10 draws: 3.685%
                    11 draws: 3.173%
                    12 draws: 2.731%
                    13 draws: 2.349%
                    14 draws: 2.019%
                    15 draws: 1.734%
                    16 draws: 1.489%
                    17 draws: 1.278%
                    18 draws: 1.096%
                    19 draws: 0.940%
                    20 draws: 0.806%
                    21 draws: 0.690%
                    22 draws: 0.591%
                    23 draws: 0.506%
                    24 draws: 0.433%
                    25 draws: 0.370%
                    26 draws: 0.317%
                    27 draws: 0.271%
                    28 draws: 0.231%
                    29 draws: 0.198%
                    30 draws: 0.169%
                    31 draws: 0.144%
                    32 draws: 0.123%
                    33 draws: 0.105%
                    34 draws: 0.090%
                    35 draws: 0.077%
                    36 draws: 0.065%
                    37 draws: 0.056%
                    38 draws: 0.048%
                    39 draws: 0.041%
                    40 draws: 0.035%
                    41 draws: 0.029%
                    42 draws: 0.025%
                    43 draws: 0.021%
                    44 draws: 0.018%
                    45 draws: 0.016%
                    46 draws: 0.013%
                    47 draws: 0.011%
                    48 draws: 0.010%
                    49 draws: 0.008%
                    50 draws: 0.007%
                    51 draws: 0.006%
                    52 draws: 0.005%
                    53 draws: 0.004%
                    54 draws: 0.004%
                    55 draws: 0.003%
                    56 draws: 0.003%
                    57 draws: 0.002%
                    58 draws: 0.002%
                    59 draws: 0.002%
                    >=60 draws: 0.009%
                    ====
                    Mean: 7.161


                    Code used to produce this output found here: https://godbolt.org/z/t47H5V



                    For a 13 Card Deck, the average draw is approximately 12.488 cards



                    The main differences in a 13-card deck, aside from just being smaller, is the fact that some of the key relevant cards, like Talons and Dunjon (which cause the user to stop drawing cards) or Fool (which is one of the cards that removes itself) are no longer in the deck at all. This has two mechanical changes:



                    • Drawing a specific card from the deck either has a 1/13 chance or a 1/12 chance, depending on whether Jester has been pulled or not.

                    • The overall odds of drawing a "Stopper" card has reduced to 1/13 or 1/12, which is much less than the 3/22, 3/21, or 3/20 chances we were dealing with previously.

                    As a result, this deck tends towards much longer draws by the user.



                    1 draws: 7.692%
                    2 draws: 7.150%
                    3 draws: 6.638%
                    4 draws: 6.155%
                    5 draws: 5.702%
                    6 draws: 5.277%
                    7 draws: 4.880%
                    8 draws: 4.510%
                    9 draws: 4.165%
                    10 draws: 3.843%
                    11 draws: 3.545%
                    12 draws: 3.268%
                    13 draws: 3.012%
                    14 draws: 2.774%
                    15 draws: 2.554%
                    16 draws: 2.351%
                    17 draws: 2.163%
                    18 draws: 1.989%
                    19 draws: 1.829%
                    20 draws: 1.682%
                    21 draws: 1.546%
                    22 draws: 1.420%
                    23 draws: 1.305%
                    24 draws: 1.199%
                    25 draws: 1.101%
                    26 draws: 1.011%
                    27 draws: 0.928%
                    28 draws: 0.852%
                    29 draws: 0.782%
                    30 draws: 0.718%
                    31 draws: 0.659%
                    32 draws: 0.605%
                    33 draws: 0.555%
                    34 draws: 0.509%
                    35 draws: 0.467%
                    36 draws: 0.428%
                    37 draws: 0.393%
                    38 draws: 0.361%
                    39 draws: 0.331%
                    40 draws: 0.303%
                    41 draws: 0.278%
                    42 draws: 0.255%
                    43 draws: 0.234%
                    44 draws: 0.215%
                    45 draws: 0.197%
                    46 draws: 0.180%
                    47 draws: 0.165%
                    48 draws: 0.152%
                    49 draws: 0.139%
                    50 draws: 0.128%
                    51 draws: 0.117%
                    52 draws: 0.107%
                    53 draws: 0.098%
                    54 draws: 0.090%
                    55 draws: 0.083%
                    56 draws: 0.076%
                    57 draws: 0.069%
                    58 draws: 0.064%
                    59 draws: 0.058%
                    60 draws: 0.054%
                    61 draws: 0.049%
                    62 draws: 0.045%
                    63 draws: 0.041%
                    64 draws: 0.038%
                    65 draws: 0.035%
                    66 draws: 0.032%
                    67 draws: 0.029%
                    68 draws: 0.027%
                    69 draws: 0.024%
                    70 draws: 0.022%
                    71 draws: 0.021%
                    72 draws: 0.019%
                    73 draws: 0.017%
                    74 draws: 0.016%
                    75 draws: 0.015%
                    76 draws: 0.013%
                    77 draws: 0.012%
                    78 draws: 0.011%
                    79 draws: 0.010%
                    80 draws: 0.009%
                    81 draws: 0.009%
                    82 draws: 0.008%
                    83 draws: 0.007%
                    84 draws: 0.007%
                    85 draws: 0.006%
                    86 draws: 0.006%
                    87 draws: 0.005%
                    88 draws: 0.005%
                    89 draws: 0.004%
                    90 draws: 0.004%
                    91 draws: 0.004%
                    92 draws: 0.003%
                    93 draws: 0.003%
                    94 draws: 0.003%
                    95 draws: 0.003%
                    96 draws: 0.002%
                    97 draws: 0.002%
                    98 draws: 0.002%
                    99 draws: 0.002%
                    100 draws: 0.002%
                    101 draws: 0.002%
                    102 draws: 0.001%
                    103 draws: 0.001%
                    104 draws: 0.001%
                    105 draws: 0.001%
                    106 draws: 0.001%
                    107 draws: 0.001%
                    >=108 draws: 0.010%
                    ====
                    Mean: 12.488


                    Code used to produce this output found here: https://godbolt.org/z/npw9w-






                    share|improve this answer









                    $endgroup$



                    For a 22 Card Deck, the average draw is approximately 7.161 cards



                    Knowing that the Fools and Jester Cards will remove themselves from the deck if drawn, we therefore know that the odds of drawing one of the "stopper" cards (Talons, Donjon, or The Void) is 3/22, 3/21, or 3/20, depending on whether those two cards have been drawn yet.



                    So on the first draw, the odds we hit a stopper card is 3/22, or 13.64%. There's a 19/22 chance we did not draw a stopper card, but of those 19 trials, 2 of them now involve a 21 card deck.



                    So for the second draw, the odds we draw a stopper is (17/19 * 3/22) + (2/19 * 3/21), or about 13.705%; the odds that we therefore draw this stopper after exactly 2 draws is 13.705% * 19/22, which is 11.836%.



                    We continue this process indefinitely, starting with the third draw where some of the possible decks have 22 cards, some have 21, and some have 20.



                    For the purpose of giving my calculations a finite stopping point (because hypothetically a person could just keep drawing forever, never hitting one of those cards), I'm presuming that if the odds we haven't drawn one of the stopper cards is less than 1/10000, or 0.01%, then it's okay to simply assume it doesn't happen. So as a result, the margin of error on our mean (which we truncate to 3 decimal digits) is roughly 1 ULP.



                    Using this process, we can therefore see that the Odds of drawing a stopper card after X draws is this regression:



                    1 draws: 13.636%
                    2 draws: 11.836%
                    3 draws: 10.262%
                    4 draws: 8.889%
                    5 draws: 7.692%
                    6 draws: 6.650%
                    7 draws: 5.744%
                    8 draws: 4.958%
                    9 draws: 4.276%
                    10 draws: 3.685%
                    11 draws: 3.173%
                    12 draws: 2.731%
                    13 draws: 2.349%
                    14 draws: 2.019%
                    15 draws: 1.734%
                    16 draws: 1.489%
                    17 draws: 1.278%
                    18 draws: 1.096%
                    19 draws: 0.940%
                    20 draws: 0.806%
                    21 draws: 0.690%
                    22 draws: 0.591%
                    23 draws: 0.506%
                    24 draws: 0.433%
                    25 draws: 0.370%
                    26 draws: 0.317%
                    27 draws: 0.271%
                    28 draws: 0.231%
                    29 draws: 0.198%
                    30 draws: 0.169%
                    31 draws: 0.144%
                    32 draws: 0.123%
                    33 draws: 0.105%
                    34 draws: 0.090%
                    35 draws: 0.077%
                    36 draws: 0.065%
                    37 draws: 0.056%
                    38 draws: 0.048%
                    39 draws: 0.041%
                    40 draws: 0.035%
                    41 draws: 0.029%
                    42 draws: 0.025%
                    43 draws: 0.021%
                    44 draws: 0.018%
                    45 draws: 0.016%
                    46 draws: 0.013%
                    47 draws: 0.011%
                    48 draws: 0.010%
                    49 draws: 0.008%
                    50 draws: 0.007%
                    51 draws: 0.006%
                    52 draws: 0.005%
                    53 draws: 0.004%
                    54 draws: 0.004%
                    55 draws: 0.003%
                    56 draws: 0.003%
                    57 draws: 0.002%
                    58 draws: 0.002%
                    59 draws: 0.002%
                    >=60 draws: 0.009%
                    ====
                    Mean: 7.161


                    Code used to produce this output found here: https://godbolt.org/z/t47H5V



                    For a 13 Card Deck, the average draw is approximately 12.488 cards



                    The main differences in a 13-card deck, aside from just being smaller, is the fact that some of the key relevant cards, like Talons and Dunjon (which cause the user to stop drawing cards) or Fool (which is one of the cards that removes itself) are no longer in the deck at all. This has two mechanical changes:



                    • Drawing a specific card from the deck either has a 1/13 chance or a 1/12 chance, depending on whether Jester has been pulled or not.

                    • The overall odds of drawing a "Stopper" card has reduced to 1/13 or 1/12, which is much less than the 3/22, 3/21, or 3/20 chances we were dealing with previously.

                    As a result, this deck tends towards much longer draws by the user.



                    1 draws: 7.692%
                    2 draws: 7.150%
                    3 draws: 6.638%
                    4 draws: 6.155%
                    5 draws: 5.702%
                    6 draws: 5.277%
                    7 draws: 4.880%
                    8 draws: 4.510%
                    9 draws: 4.165%
                    10 draws: 3.843%
                    11 draws: 3.545%
                    12 draws: 3.268%
                    13 draws: 3.012%
                    14 draws: 2.774%
                    15 draws: 2.554%
                    16 draws: 2.351%
                    17 draws: 2.163%
                    18 draws: 1.989%
                    19 draws: 1.829%
                    20 draws: 1.682%
                    21 draws: 1.546%
                    22 draws: 1.420%
                    23 draws: 1.305%
                    24 draws: 1.199%
                    25 draws: 1.101%
                    26 draws: 1.011%
                    27 draws: 0.928%
                    28 draws: 0.852%
                    29 draws: 0.782%
                    30 draws: 0.718%
                    31 draws: 0.659%
                    32 draws: 0.605%
                    33 draws: 0.555%
                    34 draws: 0.509%
                    35 draws: 0.467%
                    36 draws: 0.428%
                    37 draws: 0.393%
                    38 draws: 0.361%
                    39 draws: 0.331%
                    40 draws: 0.303%
                    41 draws: 0.278%
                    42 draws: 0.255%
                    43 draws: 0.234%
                    44 draws: 0.215%
                    45 draws: 0.197%
                    46 draws: 0.180%
                    47 draws: 0.165%
                    48 draws: 0.152%
                    49 draws: 0.139%
                    50 draws: 0.128%
                    51 draws: 0.117%
                    52 draws: 0.107%
                    53 draws: 0.098%
                    54 draws: 0.090%
                    55 draws: 0.083%
                    56 draws: 0.076%
                    57 draws: 0.069%
                    58 draws: 0.064%
                    59 draws: 0.058%
                    60 draws: 0.054%
                    61 draws: 0.049%
                    62 draws: 0.045%
                    63 draws: 0.041%
                    64 draws: 0.038%
                    65 draws: 0.035%
                    66 draws: 0.032%
                    67 draws: 0.029%
                    68 draws: 0.027%
                    69 draws: 0.024%
                    70 draws: 0.022%
                    71 draws: 0.021%
                    72 draws: 0.019%
                    73 draws: 0.017%
                    74 draws: 0.016%
                    75 draws: 0.015%
                    76 draws: 0.013%
                    77 draws: 0.012%
                    78 draws: 0.011%
                    79 draws: 0.010%
                    80 draws: 0.009%
                    81 draws: 0.009%
                    82 draws: 0.008%
                    83 draws: 0.007%
                    84 draws: 0.007%
                    85 draws: 0.006%
                    86 draws: 0.006%
                    87 draws: 0.005%
                    88 draws: 0.005%
                    89 draws: 0.004%
                    90 draws: 0.004%
                    91 draws: 0.004%
                    92 draws: 0.003%
                    93 draws: 0.003%
                    94 draws: 0.003%
                    95 draws: 0.003%
                    96 draws: 0.002%
                    97 draws: 0.002%
                    98 draws: 0.002%
                    99 draws: 0.002%
                    100 draws: 0.002%
                    101 draws: 0.002%
                    102 draws: 0.001%
                    103 draws: 0.001%
                    104 draws: 0.001%
                    105 draws: 0.001%
                    106 draws: 0.001%
                    107 draws: 0.001%
                    >=108 draws: 0.010%
                    ====
                    Mean: 12.488


                    Code used to produce this output found here: https://godbolt.org/z/npw9w-







                    share|improve this answer












                    share|improve this answer



                    share|improve this answer










                    answered 7 hours ago









                    XiremaXirema

                    32.3k3 gold badges106 silver badges188 bronze badges




                    32.3k3 gold badges106 silver badges188 bronze badges





















                        3












                        $begingroup$

                        Technically, you can draw the entire deck if you like.



                        Others have handled the deep-math version of this answer, and I salute them, but if all you want to do is get as many cards to trigger as possible, the actual upper limit is much simpler



                        • Declare that you intend to draw the entire deck.

                        • Wait 1 hour.

                        • Every card in the deck leaps out and takes effect simultaneously.

                        It's probably a bad idea.



                        Your body will be imprisoned in an extradimensional space. Your soul will be imprisoned in an object in a place of the DM's choice, guarded by one or more powerful monsters. An Avatar of Death shows up and immediately becomes frustrated. You receive money, lands, and magic items, all of which immediately turn to dust. Your alignment swaps. You lose 1d4+1 int, and gain +2 to something else. On the bright side, you do get 1d3 wish spells (which cannot save you) and the ability to decide that that was a bad idea and that you shouldn't have done it after all. Perhaps you could use that to exploit the Vizier to get an answer to one question more or less safely? I wouldn't bet on it.






                        share|improve this answer









                        $endgroup$

















                          3












                          $begingroup$

                          Technically, you can draw the entire deck if you like.



                          Others have handled the deep-math version of this answer, and I salute them, but if all you want to do is get as many cards to trigger as possible, the actual upper limit is much simpler



                          • Declare that you intend to draw the entire deck.

                          • Wait 1 hour.

                          • Every card in the deck leaps out and takes effect simultaneously.

                          It's probably a bad idea.



                          Your body will be imprisoned in an extradimensional space. Your soul will be imprisoned in an object in a place of the DM's choice, guarded by one or more powerful monsters. An Avatar of Death shows up and immediately becomes frustrated. You receive money, lands, and magic items, all of which immediately turn to dust. Your alignment swaps. You lose 1d4+1 int, and gain +2 to something else. On the bright side, you do get 1d3 wish spells (which cannot save you) and the ability to decide that that was a bad idea and that you shouldn't have done it after all. Perhaps you could use that to exploit the Vizier to get an answer to one question more or less safely? I wouldn't bet on it.






                          share|improve this answer









                          $endgroup$















                            3












                            3








                            3





                            $begingroup$

                            Technically, you can draw the entire deck if you like.



                            Others have handled the deep-math version of this answer, and I salute them, but if all you want to do is get as many cards to trigger as possible, the actual upper limit is much simpler



                            • Declare that you intend to draw the entire deck.

                            • Wait 1 hour.

                            • Every card in the deck leaps out and takes effect simultaneously.

                            It's probably a bad idea.



                            Your body will be imprisoned in an extradimensional space. Your soul will be imprisoned in an object in a place of the DM's choice, guarded by one or more powerful monsters. An Avatar of Death shows up and immediately becomes frustrated. You receive money, lands, and magic items, all of which immediately turn to dust. Your alignment swaps. You lose 1d4+1 int, and gain +2 to something else. On the bright side, you do get 1d3 wish spells (which cannot save you) and the ability to decide that that was a bad idea and that you shouldn't have done it after all. Perhaps you could use that to exploit the Vizier to get an answer to one question more or less safely? I wouldn't bet on it.






                            share|improve this answer









                            $endgroup$



                            Technically, you can draw the entire deck if you like.



                            Others have handled the deep-math version of this answer, and I salute them, but if all you want to do is get as many cards to trigger as possible, the actual upper limit is much simpler



                            • Declare that you intend to draw the entire deck.

                            • Wait 1 hour.

                            • Every card in the deck leaps out and takes effect simultaneously.

                            It's probably a bad idea.



                            Your body will be imprisoned in an extradimensional space. Your soul will be imprisoned in an object in a place of the DM's choice, guarded by one or more powerful monsters. An Avatar of Death shows up and immediately becomes frustrated. You receive money, lands, and magic items, all of which immediately turn to dust. Your alignment swaps. You lose 1d4+1 int, and gain +2 to something else. On the bright side, you do get 1d3 wish spells (which cannot save you) and the ability to decide that that was a bad idea and that you shouldn't have done it after all. Perhaps you could use that to exploit the Vizier to get an answer to one question more or less safely? I wouldn't bet on it.







                            share|improve this answer












                            share|improve this answer



                            share|improve this answer










                            answered 6 hours ago









                            Ben BardenBen Barden

                            15k2 gold badges35 silver badges84 bronze badges




                            15k2 gold badges35 silver badges84 bronze badges



























                                draft saved

                                draft discarded
















































                                Thanks for contributing an answer to Role-playing Games Stack Exchange!


                                • Please be sure to answer the question. Provide details and share your research!

                                But avoid


                                • Asking for help, clarification, or responding to other answers.

                                • Making statements based on opinion; back them up with references or personal experience.

                                Use MathJax to format equations. MathJax reference.


                                To learn more, see our tips on writing great answers.




                                draft saved


                                draft discarded














                                StackExchange.ready(
                                function ()
                                StackExchange.openid.initPostLogin('.new-post-login', 'https%3a%2f%2frpg.stackexchange.com%2fquestions%2f151177%2fwhat-is-the-average-number-of-draws-it-takes-before-you-can-not-draw-any-more-ca%23new-answer', 'question_page');

                                );

                                Post as a guest















                                Required, but never shown





















































                                Required, but never shown














                                Required, but never shown












                                Required, but never shown







                                Required, but never shown

































                                Required, but never shown














                                Required, but never shown












                                Required, but never shown







                                Required, but never shown







                                Popular posts from this blog

                                Invision Community Contents History See also References External links Navigation menuProprietaryinvisioncommunity.comIPS Community ForumsIPS Community Forumsthis blog entry"License Changes, IP.Board 3.4, and the Future""Interview -- Matt Mecham of Ibforums""CEO Invision Power Board, Matt Mecham Is a Liar, Thief!"IPB License Explanation 1.3, 1.3.1, 2.0, and 2.1ArchivedSecurity Fixes, Updates And Enhancements For IPB 1.3.1Archived"New Demo Accounts - Invision Power Services"the original"New Default Skin"the original"Invision Power Board 3.0.0 and Applications Released"the original"Archived copy"the original"Perpetual licenses being done away with""Release Notes - Invision Power Services""Introducing: IPS Community Suite 4!"Invision Community Release Notes

                                Canceling a color specificationRandomly assigning color to Graphics3D objects?Default color for Filling in Mathematica 9Coloring specific elements of sets with a prime modified order in an array plotHow to pick a color differing significantly from the colors already in a given color list?Detection of the text colorColor numbers based on their valueCan color schemes for use with ColorData include opacity specification?My dynamic color schemes

                                Tom Holland Mục lục Đầu đời và giáo dục | Sự nghiệp | Cuộc sống cá nhân | Phim tham gia | Giải thưởng và đề cử | Chú thích | Liên kết ngoài | Trình đơn chuyển hướngProfile“Person Details for Thomas Stanley Holland, "England and Wales Birth Registration Index, 1837-2008" — FamilySearch.org”"Meet Tom Holland... the 16-year-old star of The Impossible""Schoolboy actor Tom Holland finds himself in Oscar contention for role in tsunami drama"“Naomi Watts on the Prince William and Harry's reaction to her film about the late Princess Diana”lưu trữ"Holland and Pflueger Are West End's Two New 'Billy Elliots'""I'm so envious of my son, the movie star! British writer Dominic Holland's spent 20 years trying to crack Hollywood - but he's been beaten to it by a very unlikely rival"“Richard and Margaret Povey of Jersey, Channel Islands, UK: Information about Thomas Stanley Holland”"Tom Holland to play Billy Elliot""New Billy Elliot leaving the garage"Billy Elliot the Musical - Tom Holland - Billy"A Tale of four Billys: Tom Holland""The Feel Good Factor""Thames Christian College schoolboys join Myleene Klass for The Feelgood Factor""Government launches £600,000 arts bursaries pilot""BILLY's Chapman, Holland, Gardner & Jackson-Keen Visit Prime Minister""Elton John 'blown away' by Billy Elliot fifth birthday" (video with John's interview and fragments of Holland's performance)"First News interviews Arrietty's Tom Holland"“33rd Critics' Circle Film Awards winners”“National Board of Review Current Awards”Bản gốc"Ron Howard Whaling Tale 'In The Heart Of The Sea' Casts Tom Holland"“'Spider-Man' Finds Tom Holland to Star as New Web-Slinger”lưu trữ“Captain America: Civil War (2016)”“Film Review: ‘Captain America: Civil War’”lưu trữ“‘Captain America: Civil War’ review: Choose your own avenger”lưu trữ“The Lost City of Z reviews”“Sony Pictures and Marvel Studios Find Their 'Spider-Man' Star and Director”“‘Mary Magdalene’, ‘Current War’ & ‘Wind River’ Get 2017 Release Dates From Weinstein”“Lionsgate Unleashing Daisy Ridley & Tom Holland Starrer ‘Chaos Walking’ In Cannes”“PTA's 'Master' Leads Chicago Film Critics Nominations, UPDATED: Houston and Indiana Critics Nominations”“Nominaciones Goya 2013 Telecinco Cinema – ENG”“Jameson Empire Film Awards: Martin Freeman wins best actor for performance in The Hobbit”“34th Annual Young Artist Awards”Bản gốc“Teen Choice Awards 2016—Captain America: Civil War Leads Second Wave of Nominations”“BAFTA Film Award Nominations: ‘La La Land’ Leads Race”“Saturn Awards Nominations 2017: 'Rogue One,' 'Walking Dead' Lead”Tom HollandTom HollandTom HollandTom Hollandmedia.gettyimages.comWorldCat Identities300279794no20130442900000 0004 0355 42791085670554170004732cb16706349t(data)XX5557367