Is this quote, “just ten trading days represent 63 per cent of the returns of the past 50 years” true?A stock just dropped 8% in minutes and now all of a sudden the only way to buy is on the ask, what does this mean?

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Is this quote, "just ten trading days represent 63 per cent of the returns of the past 50 years" true?

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Is this quote, “just ten trading days represent 63 per cent of the returns of the past 50 years” true?


A stock just dropped 8% in minutes and now all of a sudden the only way to buy is on the ask, what does this mean?






.everyoneloves__top-leaderboard:empty,.everyoneloves__mid-leaderboard:empty,.everyoneloves__bot-mid-leaderboard:empty margin-bottom:0;








5















I have fallen down a wikipedia rabbit hole and landed on the page titled "Seven States of Randomness". I won't yet attempt to explain in a sentence what it describes.



Though at the end of the History section the following text is written (with my emphasis)




Mandelbrot and Taleb pointed out that although one can assume that the
odds of finding a person who is several miles tall are extremely low,
similar excessive observations can not be excluded in other areas of
application. They argued that while traditional bell curves may
provide a satisfactory representation of height and weight in the
population, they do not provide a suitable modeling mechanism for
market risks or returns, where just ten trading days represent 63 per
cent of the returns of the past 50 years.




Which most likely requires reading most of the article to get the full context.




My question is, is this true? Or is it even fair to ask if this is true? Does anyone know where this quote originated from or is this just the made up "fact" of whomever wrote this wikipedia page? If it is true, is there a better less technical explanation of it somewhere?










share|improve this question



















  • 1





    I do not have much evidence for this, but I think that this is false. Over the last 50 years, the market has gone up hundreds of percent but the biggest day gain of all time is only 15%

    – Gerold Astor
    8 hours ago











  • @GeroldAstor note that the article was written 13 years ago.

    – RonJohn
    8 hours ago











  • It's plausible, but you'd need to read the article referenced in the wikipedia page, and figure out what assumptions they made.

    – RonJohn
    8 hours ago

















5















I have fallen down a wikipedia rabbit hole and landed on the page titled "Seven States of Randomness". I won't yet attempt to explain in a sentence what it describes.



Though at the end of the History section the following text is written (with my emphasis)




Mandelbrot and Taleb pointed out that although one can assume that the
odds of finding a person who is several miles tall are extremely low,
similar excessive observations can not be excluded in other areas of
application. They argued that while traditional bell curves may
provide a satisfactory representation of height and weight in the
population, they do not provide a suitable modeling mechanism for
market risks or returns, where just ten trading days represent 63 per
cent of the returns of the past 50 years.




Which most likely requires reading most of the article to get the full context.




My question is, is this true? Or is it even fair to ask if this is true? Does anyone know where this quote originated from or is this just the made up "fact" of whomever wrote this wikipedia page? If it is true, is there a better less technical explanation of it somewhere?










share|improve this question



















  • 1





    I do not have much evidence for this, but I think that this is false. Over the last 50 years, the market has gone up hundreds of percent but the biggest day gain of all time is only 15%

    – Gerold Astor
    8 hours ago











  • @GeroldAstor note that the article was written 13 years ago.

    – RonJohn
    8 hours ago











  • It's plausible, but you'd need to read the article referenced in the wikipedia page, and figure out what assumptions they made.

    – RonJohn
    8 hours ago













5












5








5








I have fallen down a wikipedia rabbit hole and landed on the page titled "Seven States of Randomness". I won't yet attempt to explain in a sentence what it describes.



Though at the end of the History section the following text is written (with my emphasis)




Mandelbrot and Taleb pointed out that although one can assume that the
odds of finding a person who is several miles tall are extremely low,
similar excessive observations can not be excluded in other areas of
application. They argued that while traditional bell curves may
provide a satisfactory representation of height and weight in the
population, they do not provide a suitable modeling mechanism for
market risks or returns, where just ten trading days represent 63 per
cent of the returns of the past 50 years.




Which most likely requires reading most of the article to get the full context.




My question is, is this true? Or is it even fair to ask if this is true? Does anyone know where this quote originated from or is this just the made up "fact" of whomever wrote this wikipedia page? If it is true, is there a better less technical explanation of it somewhere?










share|improve this question














I have fallen down a wikipedia rabbit hole and landed on the page titled "Seven States of Randomness". I won't yet attempt to explain in a sentence what it describes.



Though at the end of the History section the following text is written (with my emphasis)




Mandelbrot and Taleb pointed out that although one can assume that the
odds of finding a person who is several miles tall are extremely low,
similar excessive observations can not be excluded in other areas of
application. They argued that while traditional bell curves may
provide a satisfactory representation of height and weight in the
population, they do not provide a suitable modeling mechanism for
market risks or returns, where just ten trading days represent 63 per
cent of the returns of the past 50 years.




Which most likely requires reading most of the article to get the full context.




My question is, is this true? Or is it even fair to ask if this is true? Does anyone know where this quote originated from or is this just the made up "fact" of whomever wrote this wikipedia page? If it is true, is there a better less technical explanation of it somewhere?







stocks stock-analysis technical-analysis






share|improve this question













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share|improve this question




share|improve this question










asked 8 hours ago









KDeckerKDecker

2712 silver badges7 bronze badges




2712 silver badges7 bronze badges










  • 1





    I do not have much evidence for this, but I think that this is false. Over the last 50 years, the market has gone up hundreds of percent but the biggest day gain of all time is only 15%

    – Gerold Astor
    8 hours ago











  • @GeroldAstor note that the article was written 13 years ago.

    – RonJohn
    8 hours ago











  • It's plausible, but you'd need to read the article referenced in the wikipedia page, and figure out what assumptions they made.

    – RonJohn
    8 hours ago












  • 1





    I do not have much evidence for this, but I think that this is false. Over the last 50 years, the market has gone up hundreds of percent but the biggest day gain of all time is only 15%

    – Gerold Astor
    8 hours ago











  • @GeroldAstor note that the article was written 13 years ago.

    – RonJohn
    8 hours ago











  • It's plausible, but you'd need to read the article referenced in the wikipedia page, and figure out what assumptions they made.

    – RonJohn
    8 hours ago







1




1





I do not have much evidence for this, but I think that this is false. Over the last 50 years, the market has gone up hundreds of percent but the biggest day gain of all time is only 15%

– Gerold Astor
8 hours ago





I do not have much evidence for this, but I think that this is false. Over the last 50 years, the market has gone up hundreds of percent but the biggest day gain of all time is only 15%

– Gerold Astor
8 hours ago













@GeroldAstor note that the article was written 13 years ago.

– RonJohn
8 hours ago





@GeroldAstor note that the article was written 13 years ago.

– RonJohn
8 hours ago













It's plausible, but you'd need to read the article referenced in the wikipedia page, and figure out what assumptions they made.

– RonJohn
8 hours ago





It's plausible, but you'd need to read the article referenced in the wikipedia page, and figure out what assumptions they made.

– RonJohn
8 hours ago










2 Answers
2






active

oldest

votes


















4
















Mild vs. Wild Randomness:
Focusing on those Risks that
Matter and A focus on the exceptions
that prove the rule are copies of the original article referenced by the Wikipedia page. The authors are well respected academics so I assume that they have some support for the statement but the article doesn't appear to explain exactly what they assumed.



For a plausibility check, according to this chart the total compound increase in the S&P 500 index from 1970-01-01 to on 2018-12-31 (48 years so close to the 50 years they quote though obviously a different 50 year period) is 2622.25% (I'm using the Change in Index rather than including dividends because that requires actual research). I'm also too lazy to find a quick source of the top 60 days by percentage change since 1970 but Wikipedia does have a list of the best day each year so we can ask "If you had been invested in the S&P 500 since 1970-01-01 (ignoring dividends) but missed the best day each year, how much would you have lost overall?" If we take the best single-day returns for every year since 1970 that would produce 440.05% growth. If we exclude those 48 days, the other 364 days must have produced 467.04% growth-- (1+4.4005)*(1+4.6704)-1 = 26.2225). So (rather approximately) half the growth in the index has come from the best single day in each year which is roughly in line with the claim.



I assume that Prof. Mandelbrot and Taleb did a much more thorough analysis than I did here. Clearly they were looking at a different time period than I am, they were probably looking at a different index, they weren't limiting themselves to the data they could easily grab from Wikipedia, etc. But it's interesting that you can get reasonably close to their number doing a back of the envelope calculation using a much different data set than they were working with.



Compounding the best day of S&P 500 returns every year



Compounding the annual return of the S&P 500 since 1970






share|improve this answer

























  • Great working out of the idea, and really nicely supports the authors statements by taking such a different and simplified look at different data, yet it comes out pretty close to what they say. +1

    – BrianH
    3 hours ago











  • But 440% is only 17% of 2622%. That's nowhere near 63%.

    – RonJohn
    2 hours ago











  • Here's a site for S&P 500 CAGR, including and excluding dividends. moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm

    – RonJohn
    2 hours ago






  • 1





    @RonJohn - Percentages of percentages don't really make sense (the statement in the article isn't as precise on that point as I would prefer). The best day produced roughly the same total return as the other 364 days (440% vs 467%). If you converted that to an annualized rate of return, the best day would account for roughly half of the total growth over 50 years. My expectation is that the article was actually comparing relative annual rates of return. I'm cheating and just making a rough comparison of the two components and saying they're roughly equal.

    – Justin Cave
    29 mins ago











  • If percentages of percentages don't really make sense, then the statement in question (which is nothing but about a percentage of a percentage) doesn't make sense.

    – RonJohn
    17 mins ago


















1
















I can't speak to the research methods used in that study but Taleb was likely trying to build on his "black swan" hypothesis by showing that the "black swan" trading days have the biggest impact on the market overall.



The math behind Mandelbrot's and Taleb's analyses always goes over my head, even though I'm a fan of Taleb's work from a philosophical standpoint.



Tony Robbins simplified this concept by enforcing the idea that you can't time the stock market. I'm not sure who did the research, but it shows that if you try to time the market and miss out on the top performing days, you ultimately underperform the market.



enter image description here
Image source: MarketWatch






share|improve this answer

























  • I wonder what the reverse looks like (excluding the worst 10/20/40 days)

    – Ben Voigt
    5 hours ago











  • @BenVoigt That's a good point. I'd love to see that information.

    – daytrader
    5 hours ago













Your Answer








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2 Answers
2






active

oldest

votes








2 Answers
2






active

oldest

votes









active

oldest

votes






active

oldest

votes









4
















Mild vs. Wild Randomness:
Focusing on those Risks that
Matter and A focus on the exceptions
that prove the rule are copies of the original article referenced by the Wikipedia page. The authors are well respected academics so I assume that they have some support for the statement but the article doesn't appear to explain exactly what they assumed.



For a plausibility check, according to this chart the total compound increase in the S&P 500 index from 1970-01-01 to on 2018-12-31 (48 years so close to the 50 years they quote though obviously a different 50 year period) is 2622.25% (I'm using the Change in Index rather than including dividends because that requires actual research). I'm also too lazy to find a quick source of the top 60 days by percentage change since 1970 but Wikipedia does have a list of the best day each year so we can ask "If you had been invested in the S&P 500 since 1970-01-01 (ignoring dividends) but missed the best day each year, how much would you have lost overall?" If we take the best single-day returns for every year since 1970 that would produce 440.05% growth. If we exclude those 48 days, the other 364 days must have produced 467.04% growth-- (1+4.4005)*(1+4.6704)-1 = 26.2225). So (rather approximately) half the growth in the index has come from the best single day in each year which is roughly in line with the claim.



I assume that Prof. Mandelbrot and Taleb did a much more thorough analysis than I did here. Clearly they were looking at a different time period than I am, they were probably looking at a different index, they weren't limiting themselves to the data they could easily grab from Wikipedia, etc. But it's interesting that you can get reasonably close to their number doing a back of the envelope calculation using a much different data set than they were working with.



Compounding the best day of S&P 500 returns every year



Compounding the annual return of the S&P 500 since 1970






share|improve this answer

























  • Great working out of the idea, and really nicely supports the authors statements by taking such a different and simplified look at different data, yet it comes out pretty close to what they say. +1

    – BrianH
    3 hours ago











  • But 440% is only 17% of 2622%. That's nowhere near 63%.

    – RonJohn
    2 hours ago











  • Here's a site for S&P 500 CAGR, including and excluding dividends. moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm

    – RonJohn
    2 hours ago






  • 1





    @RonJohn - Percentages of percentages don't really make sense (the statement in the article isn't as precise on that point as I would prefer). The best day produced roughly the same total return as the other 364 days (440% vs 467%). If you converted that to an annualized rate of return, the best day would account for roughly half of the total growth over 50 years. My expectation is that the article was actually comparing relative annual rates of return. I'm cheating and just making a rough comparison of the two components and saying they're roughly equal.

    – Justin Cave
    29 mins ago











  • If percentages of percentages don't really make sense, then the statement in question (which is nothing but about a percentage of a percentage) doesn't make sense.

    – RonJohn
    17 mins ago















4
















Mild vs. Wild Randomness:
Focusing on those Risks that
Matter and A focus on the exceptions
that prove the rule are copies of the original article referenced by the Wikipedia page. The authors are well respected academics so I assume that they have some support for the statement but the article doesn't appear to explain exactly what they assumed.



For a plausibility check, according to this chart the total compound increase in the S&P 500 index from 1970-01-01 to on 2018-12-31 (48 years so close to the 50 years they quote though obviously a different 50 year period) is 2622.25% (I'm using the Change in Index rather than including dividends because that requires actual research). I'm also too lazy to find a quick source of the top 60 days by percentage change since 1970 but Wikipedia does have a list of the best day each year so we can ask "If you had been invested in the S&P 500 since 1970-01-01 (ignoring dividends) but missed the best day each year, how much would you have lost overall?" If we take the best single-day returns for every year since 1970 that would produce 440.05% growth. If we exclude those 48 days, the other 364 days must have produced 467.04% growth-- (1+4.4005)*(1+4.6704)-1 = 26.2225). So (rather approximately) half the growth in the index has come from the best single day in each year which is roughly in line with the claim.



I assume that Prof. Mandelbrot and Taleb did a much more thorough analysis than I did here. Clearly they were looking at a different time period than I am, they were probably looking at a different index, they weren't limiting themselves to the data they could easily grab from Wikipedia, etc. But it's interesting that you can get reasonably close to their number doing a back of the envelope calculation using a much different data set than they were working with.



Compounding the best day of S&P 500 returns every year



Compounding the annual return of the S&P 500 since 1970






share|improve this answer

























  • Great working out of the idea, and really nicely supports the authors statements by taking such a different and simplified look at different data, yet it comes out pretty close to what they say. +1

    – BrianH
    3 hours ago











  • But 440% is only 17% of 2622%. That's nowhere near 63%.

    – RonJohn
    2 hours ago











  • Here's a site for S&P 500 CAGR, including and excluding dividends. moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm

    – RonJohn
    2 hours ago






  • 1





    @RonJohn - Percentages of percentages don't really make sense (the statement in the article isn't as precise on that point as I would prefer). The best day produced roughly the same total return as the other 364 days (440% vs 467%). If you converted that to an annualized rate of return, the best day would account for roughly half of the total growth over 50 years. My expectation is that the article was actually comparing relative annual rates of return. I'm cheating and just making a rough comparison of the two components and saying they're roughly equal.

    – Justin Cave
    29 mins ago











  • If percentages of percentages don't really make sense, then the statement in question (which is nothing but about a percentage of a percentage) doesn't make sense.

    – RonJohn
    17 mins ago













4














4










4









Mild vs. Wild Randomness:
Focusing on those Risks that
Matter and A focus on the exceptions
that prove the rule are copies of the original article referenced by the Wikipedia page. The authors are well respected academics so I assume that they have some support for the statement but the article doesn't appear to explain exactly what they assumed.



For a plausibility check, according to this chart the total compound increase in the S&P 500 index from 1970-01-01 to on 2018-12-31 (48 years so close to the 50 years they quote though obviously a different 50 year period) is 2622.25% (I'm using the Change in Index rather than including dividends because that requires actual research). I'm also too lazy to find a quick source of the top 60 days by percentage change since 1970 but Wikipedia does have a list of the best day each year so we can ask "If you had been invested in the S&P 500 since 1970-01-01 (ignoring dividends) but missed the best day each year, how much would you have lost overall?" If we take the best single-day returns for every year since 1970 that would produce 440.05% growth. If we exclude those 48 days, the other 364 days must have produced 467.04% growth-- (1+4.4005)*(1+4.6704)-1 = 26.2225). So (rather approximately) half the growth in the index has come from the best single day in each year which is roughly in line with the claim.



I assume that Prof. Mandelbrot and Taleb did a much more thorough analysis than I did here. Clearly they were looking at a different time period than I am, they were probably looking at a different index, they weren't limiting themselves to the data they could easily grab from Wikipedia, etc. But it's interesting that you can get reasonably close to their number doing a back of the envelope calculation using a much different data set than they were working with.



Compounding the best day of S&P 500 returns every year



Compounding the annual return of the S&P 500 since 1970






share|improve this answer













Mild vs. Wild Randomness:
Focusing on those Risks that
Matter and A focus on the exceptions
that prove the rule are copies of the original article referenced by the Wikipedia page. The authors are well respected academics so I assume that they have some support for the statement but the article doesn't appear to explain exactly what they assumed.



For a plausibility check, according to this chart the total compound increase in the S&P 500 index from 1970-01-01 to on 2018-12-31 (48 years so close to the 50 years they quote though obviously a different 50 year period) is 2622.25% (I'm using the Change in Index rather than including dividends because that requires actual research). I'm also too lazy to find a quick source of the top 60 days by percentage change since 1970 but Wikipedia does have a list of the best day each year so we can ask "If you had been invested in the S&P 500 since 1970-01-01 (ignoring dividends) but missed the best day each year, how much would you have lost overall?" If we take the best single-day returns for every year since 1970 that would produce 440.05% growth. If we exclude those 48 days, the other 364 days must have produced 467.04% growth-- (1+4.4005)*(1+4.6704)-1 = 26.2225). So (rather approximately) half the growth in the index has come from the best single day in each year which is roughly in line with the claim.



I assume that Prof. Mandelbrot and Taleb did a much more thorough analysis than I did here. Clearly they were looking at a different time period than I am, they were probably looking at a different index, they weren't limiting themselves to the data they could easily grab from Wikipedia, etc. But it's interesting that you can get reasonably close to their number doing a back of the envelope calculation using a much different data set than they were working with.



Compounding the best day of S&P 500 returns every year



Compounding the annual return of the S&P 500 since 1970







share|improve this answer












share|improve this answer



share|improve this answer










answered 5 hours ago









Justin CaveJustin Cave

3,1161 gold badge8 silver badges16 bronze badges




3,1161 gold badge8 silver badges16 bronze badges















  • Great working out of the idea, and really nicely supports the authors statements by taking such a different and simplified look at different data, yet it comes out pretty close to what they say. +1

    – BrianH
    3 hours ago











  • But 440% is only 17% of 2622%. That's nowhere near 63%.

    – RonJohn
    2 hours ago











  • Here's a site for S&P 500 CAGR, including and excluding dividends. moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm

    – RonJohn
    2 hours ago






  • 1





    @RonJohn - Percentages of percentages don't really make sense (the statement in the article isn't as precise on that point as I would prefer). The best day produced roughly the same total return as the other 364 days (440% vs 467%). If you converted that to an annualized rate of return, the best day would account for roughly half of the total growth over 50 years. My expectation is that the article was actually comparing relative annual rates of return. I'm cheating and just making a rough comparison of the two components and saying they're roughly equal.

    – Justin Cave
    29 mins ago











  • If percentages of percentages don't really make sense, then the statement in question (which is nothing but about a percentage of a percentage) doesn't make sense.

    – RonJohn
    17 mins ago

















  • Great working out of the idea, and really nicely supports the authors statements by taking such a different and simplified look at different data, yet it comes out pretty close to what they say. +1

    – BrianH
    3 hours ago











  • But 440% is only 17% of 2622%. That's nowhere near 63%.

    – RonJohn
    2 hours ago











  • Here's a site for S&P 500 CAGR, including and excluding dividends. moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm

    – RonJohn
    2 hours ago






  • 1





    @RonJohn - Percentages of percentages don't really make sense (the statement in the article isn't as precise on that point as I would prefer). The best day produced roughly the same total return as the other 364 days (440% vs 467%). If you converted that to an annualized rate of return, the best day would account for roughly half of the total growth over 50 years. My expectation is that the article was actually comparing relative annual rates of return. I'm cheating and just making a rough comparison of the two components and saying they're roughly equal.

    – Justin Cave
    29 mins ago











  • If percentages of percentages don't really make sense, then the statement in question (which is nothing but about a percentage of a percentage) doesn't make sense.

    – RonJohn
    17 mins ago
















Great working out of the idea, and really nicely supports the authors statements by taking such a different and simplified look at different data, yet it comes out pretty close to what they say. +1

– BrianH
3 hours ago





Great working out of the idea, and really nicely supports the authors statements by taking such a different and simplified look at different data, yet it comes out pretty close to what they say. +1

– BrianH
3 hours ago













But 440% is only 17% of 2622%. That's nowhere near 63%.

– RonJohn
2 hours ago





But 440% is only 17% of 2622%. That's nowhere near 63%.

– RonJohn
2 hours ago













Here's a site for S&P 500 CAGR, including and excluding dividends. moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm

– RonJohn
2 hours ago





Here's a site for S&P 500 CAGR, including and excluding dividends. moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm

– RonJohn
2 hours ago




1




1





@RonJohn - Percentages of percentages don't really make sense (the statement in the article isn't as precise on that point as I would prefer). The best day produced roughly the same total return as the other 364 days (440% vs 467%). If you converted that to an annualized rate of return, the best day would account for roughly half of the total growth over 50 years. My expectation is that the article was actually comparing relative annual rates of return. I'm cheating and just making a rough comparison of the two components and saying they're roughly equal.

– Justin Cave
29 mins ago





@RonJohn - Percentages of percentages don't really make sense (the statement in the article isn't as precise on that point as I would prefer). The best day produced roughly the same total return as the other 364 days (440% vs 467%). If you converted that to an annualized rate of return, the best day would account for roughly half of the total growth over 50 years. My expectation is that the article was actually comparing relative annual rates of return. I'm cheating and just making a rough comparison of the two components and saying they're roughly equal.

– Justin Cave
29 mins ago













If percentages of percentages don't really make sense, then the statement in question (which is nothing but about a percentage of a percentage) doesn't make sense.

– RonJohn
17 mins ago





If percentages of percentages don't really make sense, then the statement in question (which is nothing but about a percentage of a percentage) doesn't make sense.

– RonJohn
17 mins ago













1
















I can't speak to the research methods used in that study but Taleb was likely trying to build on his "black swan" hypothesis by showing that the "black swan" trading days have the biggest impact on the market overall.



The math behind Mandelbrot's and Taleb's analyses always goes over my head, even though I'm a fan of Taleb's work from a philosophical standpoint.



Tony Robbins simplified this concept by enforcing the idea that you can't time the stock market. I'm not sure who did the research, but it shows that if you try to time the market and miss out on the top performing days, you ultimately underperform the market.



enter image description here
Image source: MarketWatch






share|improve this answer

























  • I wonder what the reverse looks like (excluding the worst 10/20/40 days)

    – Ben Voigt
    5 hours ago











  • @BenVoigt That's a good point. I'd love to see that information.

    – daytrader
    5 hours ago















1
















I can't speak to the research methods used in that study but Taleb was likely trying to build on his "black swan" hypothesis by showing that the "black swan" trading days have the biggest impact on the market overall.



The math behind Mandelbrot's and Taleb's analyses always goes over my head, even though I'm a fan of Taleb's work from a philosophical standpoint.



Tony Robbins simplified this concept by enforcing the idea that you can't time the stock market. I'm not sure who did the research, but it shows that if you try to time the market and miss out on the top performing days, you ultimately underperform the market.



enter image description here
Image source: MarketWatch






share|improve this answer

























  • I wonder what the reverse looks like (excluding the worst 10/20/40 days)

    – Ben Voigt
    5 hours ago











  • @BenVoigt That's a good point. I'd love to see that information.

    – daytrader
    5 hours ago













1














1










1









I can't speak to the research methods used in that study but Taleb was likely trying to build on his "black swan" hypothesis by showing that the "black swan" trading days have the biggest impact on the market overall.



The math behind Mandelbrot's and Taleb's analyses always goes over my head, even though I'm a fan of Taleb's work from a philosophical standpoint.



Tony Robbins simplified this concept by enforcing the idea that you can't time the stock market. I'm not sure who did the research, but it shows that if you try to time the market and miss out on the top performing days, you ultimately underperform the market.



enter image description here
Image source: MarketWatch






share|improve this answer













I can't speak to the research methods used in that study but Taleb was likely trying to build on his "black swan" hypothesis by showing that the "black swan" trading days have the biggest impact on the market overall.



The math behind Mandelbrot's and Taleb's analyses always goes over my head, even though I'm a fan of Taleb's work from a philosophical standpoint.



Tony Robbins simplified this concept by enforcing the idea that you can't time the stock market. I'm not sure who did the research, but it shows that if you try to time the market and miss out on the top performing days, you ultimately underperform the market.



enter image description here
Image source: MarketWatch







share|improve this answer












share|improve this answer



share|improve this answer










answered 5 hours ago









daytraderdaytrader

1,9073 silver badges12 bronze badges




1,9073 silver badges12 bronze badges















  • I wonder what the reverse looks like (excluding the worst 10/20/40 days)

    – Ben Voigt
    5 hours ago











  • @BenVoigt That's a good point. I'd love to see that information.

    – daytrader
    5 hours ago

















  • I wonder what the reverse looks like (excluding the worst 10/20/40 days)

    – Ben Voigt
    5 hours ago











  • @BenVoigt That's a good point. I'd love to see that information.

    – daytrader
    5 hours ago
















I wonder what the reverse looks like (excluding the worst 10/20/40 days)

– Ben Voigt
5 hours ago





I wonder what the reverse looks like (excluding the worst 10/20/40 days)

– Ben Voigt
5 hours ago













@BenVoigt That's a good point. I'd love to see that information.

– daytrader
5 hours ago





@BenVoigt That's a good point. I'd love to see that information.

– daytrader
5 hours ago


















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