A coin, having probability p of landing heads and probability of q=(1-p) of landing on heads. Announcing the arrival of Valued Associate #679: Cesar Manara Planned maintenance scheduled April 17/18, 2019 at 00:00UTC (8:00pm US/Eastern)Flipping a special coin: probability of getting heads equals the proportion of heads in the flips so farBiased coin flipped until $r$ heads appearBiased coin probabilityCoin-flipping experiment: the expected number of flips that land on headsWhy are odds of a coin landing heads $50%$ after $'n'$ consecutive headsWhat is the probability of a biased coin flipping heads (probability of heads is $frac 35$) exactly $65$ times in $100$ trials?Flipping rigged coin, calculating most common number of flips between headsChernoff bound probability: value of $n$ so that with probability $.999$ at least half of the coin flips come out headsFlip a coin 6 times. Probability with past results and probability without past results are different?Probability density function of flipping until heads and tails

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A coin, having probability p of landing heads and probability of q=(1-p) of landing on heads.



Announcing the arrival of Valued Associate #679: Cesar Manara
Planned maintenance scheduled April 17/18, 2019 at 00:00UTC (8:00pm US/Eastern)Flipping a special coin: probability of getting heads equals the proportion of heads in the flips so farBiased coin flipped until $r$ heads appearBiased coin probabilityCoin-flipping experiment: the expected number of flips that land on headsWhy are odds of a coin landing heads $50%$ after $'n'$ consecutive headsWhat is the probability of a biased coin flipping heads (probability of heads is $frac 35$) exactly $65$ times in $100$ trials?Flipping rigged coin, calculating most common number of flips between headsChernoff bound probability: value of $n$ so that with probability $.999$ at least half of the coin flips come out headsFlip a coin 6 times. Probability with past results and probability without past results are different?Probability density function of flipping until heads and tails










1












$begingroup$


A coin, having probability p of landing heads and probability of q=(1-p) of landing on heads. It is continuously flipped until at least one head and one tail have been flipped.



This is not part of a homework assignment. I am studying for a final and don't understand the professors solutions.



a.) Find the expected number of flips needed.



Since this is clearly geometric, I would think the solution would be:



E(N)=$Sigma_i=0^inftyip^n-1q+Sigma_i=0^niq^n-1p=frac1q+frac1p$.



However, I am completely wrong.
The answer is



E(N)=$p(1+frac1q)+q(1+frac1p)$



For example, consider we flip for heads first. Then we have:



E(N|H)=$p+pSigma_i=0^inftynp^n-1q$... I am not sure why this makes sense.



I am not entirely sure why we have an added 1 and a factored p,q. Could someone carefully explain why it makes sense that this is the right answer?










share|cite|improve this question









New contributor




Mistah White is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.







$endgroup$







  • 2




    $begingroup$
    It's all a question of the first toss. If it is $H$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get a $T$, if it is $T$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get $H$. Your method is incorrect because the expected number of tosses needed to get one of the two is $1$.
    $endgroup$
    – lulu
    2 hours ago







  • 1




    $begingroup$
    In both the title and first paragraph it appears there is $0$ chance of landing tails, so you will wait forever.
    $endgroup$
    – Ross Millikan
    2 hours ago











  • $begingroup$
    Note: your sums are hard to follow. What's $n$? The upper limit of the sums should be $infty$, the exponent of the probability ought to be a simple function of $i$. Done correctly, your method ought to work (though it's easier to do it the other way).
    $endgroup$
    – lulu
    2 hours ago















1












$begingroup$


A coin, having probability p of landing heads and probability of q=(1-p) of landing on heads. It is continuously flipped until at least one head and one tail have been flipped.



This is not part of a homework assignment. I am studying for a final and don't understand the professors solutions.



a.) Find the expected number of flips needed.



Since this is clearly geometric, I would think the solution would be:



E(N)=$Sigma_i=0^inftyip^n-1q+Sigma_i=0^niq^n-1p=frac1q+frac1p$.



However, I am completely wrong.
The answer is



E(N)=$p(1+frac1q)+q(1+frac1p)$



For example, consider we flip for heads first. Then we have:



E(N|H)=$p+pSigma_i=0^inftynp^n-1q$... I am not sure why this makes sense.



I am not entirely sure why we have an added 1 and a factored p,q. Could someone carefully explain why it makes sense that this is the right answer?










share|cite|improve this question









New contributor




Mistah White is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.







$endgroup$







  • 2




    $begingroup$
    It's all a question of the first toss. If it is $H$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get a $T$, if it is $T$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get $H$. Your method is incorrect because the expected number of tosses needed to get one of the two is $1$.
    $endgroup$
    – lulu
    2 hours ago







  • 1




    $begingroup$
    In both the title and first paragraph it appears there is $0$ chance of landing tails, so you will wait forever.
    $endgroup$
    – Ross Millikan
    2 hours ago











  • $begingroup$
    Note: your sums are hard to follow. What's $n$? The upper limit of the sums should be $infty$, the exponent of the probability ought to be a simple function of $i$. Done correctly, your method ought to work (though it's easier to do it the other way).
    $endgroup$
    – lulu
    2 hours ago













1












1








1


1



$begingroup$


A coin, having probability p of landing heads and probability of q=(1-p) of landing on heads. It is continuously flipped until at least one head and one tail have been flipped.



This is not part of a homework assignment. I am studying for a final and don't understand the professors solutions.



a.) Find the expected number of flips needed.



Since this is clearly geometric, I would think the solution would be:



E(N)=$Sigma_i=0^inftyip^n-1q+Sigma_i=0^niq^n-1p=frac1q+frac1p$.



However, I am completely wrong.
The answer is



E(N)=$p(1+frac1q)+q(1+frac1p)$



For example, consider we flip for heads first. Then we have:



E(N|H)=$p+pSigma_i=0^inftynp^n-1q$... I am not sure why this makes sense.



I am not entirely sure why we have an added 1 and a factored p,q. Could someone carefully explain why it makes sense that this is the right answer?










share|cite|improve this question









New contributor




Mistah White is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.







$endgroup$




A coin, having probability p of landing heads and probability of q=(1-p) of landing on heads. It is continuously flipped until at least one head and one tail have been flipped.



This is not part of a homework assignment. I am studying for a final and don't understand the professors solutions.



a.) Find the expected number of flips needed.



Since this is clearly geometric, I would think the solution would be:



E(N)=$Sigma_i=0^inftyip^n-1q+Sigma_i=0^niq^n-1p=frac1q+frac1p$.



However, I am completely wrong.
The answer is



E(N)=$p(1+frac1q)+q(1+frac1p)$



For example, consider we flip for heads first. Then we have:



E(N|H)=$p+pSigma_i=0^inftynp^n-1q$... I am not sure why this makes sense.



I am not entirely sure why we have an added 1 and a factored p,q. Could someone carefully explain why it makes sense that this is the right answer?







probability probability-theory probability-distributions expected-value






share|cite|improve this question









New contributor




Mistah White is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.











share|cite|improve this question









New contributor




Mistah White is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.









share|cite|improve this question




share|cite|improve this question








edited 2 hours ago







Mistah White













New contributor




Mistah White is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.









asked 2 hours ago









Mistah WhiteMistah White

62




62




New contributor




Mistah White is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.





New contributor





Mistah White is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.






Mistah White is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.







  • 2




    $begingroup$
    It's all a question of the first toss. If it is $H$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get a $T$, if it is $T$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get $H$. Your method is incorrect because the expected number of tosses needed to get one of the two is $1$.
    $endgroup$
    – lulu
    2 hours ago







  • 1




    $begingroup$
    In both the title and first paragraph it appears there is $0$ chance of landing tails, so you will wait forever.
    $endgroup$
    – Ross Millikan
    2 hours ago











  • $begingroup$
    Note: your sums are hard to follow. What's $n$? The upper limit of the sums should be $infty$, the exponent of the probability ought to be a simple function of $i$. Done correctly, your method ought to work (though it's easier to do it the other way).
    $endgroup$
    – lulu
    2 hours ago












  • 2




    $begingroup$
    It's all a question of the first toss. If it is $H$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get a $T$, if it is $T$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get $H$. Your method is incorrect because the expected number of tosses needed to get one of the two is $1$.
    $endgroup$
    – lulu
    2 hours ago







  • 1




    $begingroup$
    In both the title and first paragraph it appears there is $0$ chance of landing tails, so you will wait forever.
    $endgroup$
    – Ross Millikan
    2 hours ago











  • $begingroup$
    Note: your sums are hard to follow. What's $n$? The upper limit of the sums should be $infty$, the exponent of the probability ought to be a simple function of $i$. Done correctly, your method ought to work (though it's easier to do it the other way).
    $endgroup$
    – lulu
    2 hours ago







2




2




$begingroup$
It's all a question of the first toss. If it is $H$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get a $T$, if it is $T$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get $H$. Your method is incorrect because the expected number of tosses needed to get one of the two is $1$.
$endgroup$
– lulu
2 hours ago





$begingroup$
It's all a question of the first toss. If it is $H$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get a $T$, if it is $T$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get $H$. Your method is incorrect because the expected number of tosses needed to get one of the two is $1$.
$endgroup$
– lulu
2 hours ago





1




1




$begingroup$
In both the title and first paragraph it appears there is $0$ chance of landing tails, so you will wait forever.
$endgroup$
– Ross Millikan
2 hours ago





$begingroup$
In both the title and first paragraph it appears there is $0$ chance of landing tails, so you will wait forever.
$endgroup$
– Ross Millikan
2 hours ago













$begingroup$
Note: your sums are hard to follow. What's $n$? The upper limit of the sums should be $infty$, the exponent of the probability ought to be a simple function of $i$. Done correctly, your method ought to work (though it's easier to do it the other way).
$endgroup$
– lulu
2 hours ago




$begingroup$
Note: your sums are hard to follow. What's $n$? The upper limit of the sums should be $infty$, the exponent of the probability ought to be a simple function of $i$. Done correctly, your method ought to work (though it's easier to do it the other way).
$endgroup$
– lulu
2 hours ago










2 Answers
2






active

oldest

votes


















4












$begingroup$

If you get a head with probability $p$ then the expected number of throws is $1+E(X)$ where $X$ is a geometric distribution requiring a tail to be thrown with probability $q$ so $1+E(X)=1+frac1q$. Similarly if you throw a tail with probability $q$ then the expected number of throws is $1+E(Y)$ where $Y$ is a geometric distribution requiring a head to be thrown with probability $p$ so $1+E(Y)=1+frac1p$. This means that the overall expected number of throws is
$$pleft(1+frac1qright)+qleft(1+frac1pright)$$
because there is a probability $p$ that the expected number of throws is given by $1+E(X)$ and probability $q$ that it is given by $1+E(Y)$.






share|cite|improve this answer











$endgroup$




















    2












    $begingroup$

    Let $X$ be the time of the first head, and $Y$ the time of the first tail, and $W$ the first time when a head and a tail has been flipped.



    You are right in assuming that $E[X]=frac1p$ and $E[Y]=frac1q$, But you are wrong in assuming that $W=X+Y$, that's simply not true, actually $W=max(X,Y)$.



    A possible approach. Let $A$ be the indicator variable of the event: "first coin was a head" (hence $X=1$).



    Then use $$E[W]=E[E[W | A ]] = P(A=1) E[W|A=1]+P(A=0) E[W|A=0]=\=p(E[Y]+1)+q(E[X]+1)$$






    share|cite|improve this answer











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      2 Answers
      2






      active

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      2 Answers
      2






      active

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      active

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      active

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      4












      $begingroup$

      If you get a head with probability $p$ then the expected number of throws is $1+E(X)$ where $X$ is a geometric distribution requiring a tail to be thrown with probability $q$ so $1+E(X)=1+frac1q$. Similarly if you throw a tail with probability $q$ then the expected number of throws is $1+E(Y)$ where $Y$ is a geometric distribution requiring a head to be thrown with probability $p$ so $1+E(Y)=1+frac1p$. This means that the overall expected number of throws is
      $$pleft(1+frac1qright)+qleft(1+frac1pright)$$
      because there is a probability $p$ that the expected number of throws is given by $1+E(X)$ and probability $q$ that it is given by $1+E(Y)$.






      share|cite|improve this answer











      $endgroup$

















        4












        $begingroup$

        If you get a head with probability $p$ then the expected number of throws is $1+E(X)$ where $X$ is a geometric distribution requiring a tail to be thrown with probability $q$ so $1+E(X)=1+frac1q$. Similarly if you throw a tail with probability $q$ then the expected number of throws is $1+E(Y)$ where $Y$ is a geometric distribution requiring a head to be thrown with probability $p$ so $1+E(Y)=1+frac1p$. This means that the overall expected number of throws is
        $$pleft(1+frac1qright)+qleft(1+frac1pright)$$
        because there is a probability $p$ that the expected number of throws is given by $1+E(X)$ and probability $q$ that it is given by $1+E(Y)$.






        share|cite|improve this answer











        $endgroup$















          4












          4








          4





          $begingroup$

          If you get a head with probability $p$ then the expected number of throws is $1+E(X)$ where $X$ is a geometric distribution requiring a tail to be thrown with probability $q$ so $1+E(X)=1+frac1q$. Similarly if you throw a tail with probability $q$ then the expected number of throws is $1+E(Y)$ where $Y$ is a geometric distribution requiring a head to be thrown with probability $p$ so $1+E(Y)=1+frac1p$. This means that the overall expected number of throws is
          $$pleft(1+frac1qright)+qleft(1+frac1pright)$$
          because there is a probability $p$ that the expected number of throws is given by $1+E(X)$ and probability $q$ that it is given by $1+E(Y)$.






          share|cite|improve this answer











          $endgroup$



          If you get a head with probability $p$ then the expected number of throws is $1+E(X)$ where $X$ is a geometric distribution requiring a tail to be thrown with probability $q$ so $1+E(X)=1+frac1q$. Similarly if you throw a tail with probability $q$ then the expected number of throws is $1+E(Y)$ where $Y$ is a geometric distribution requiring a head to be thrown with probability $p$ so $1+E(Y)=1+frac1p$. This means that the overall expected number of throws is
          $$pleft(1+frac1qright)+qleft(1+frac1pright)$$
          because there is a probability $p$ that the expected number of throws is given by $1+E(X)$ and probability $q$ that it is given by $1+E(Y)$.







          share|cite|improve this answer














          share|cite|improve this answer



          share|cite|improve this answer








          edited 2 hours ago

























          answered 2 hours ago









          Peter ForemanPeter Foreman

          7,8931320




          7,8931320





















              2












              $begingroup$

              Let $X$ be the time of the first head, and $Y$ the time of the first tail, and $W$ the first time when a head and a tail has been flipped.



              You are right in assuming that $E[X]=frac1p$ and $E[Y]=frac1q$, But you are wrong in assuming that $W=X+Y$, that's simply not true, actually $W=max(X,Y)$.



              A possible approach. Let $A$ be the indicator variable of the event: "first coin was a head" (hence $X=1$).



              Then use $$E[W]=E[E[W | A ]] = P(A=1) E[W|A=1]+P(A=0) E[W|A=0]=\=p(E[Y]+1)+q(E[X]+1)$$






              share|cite|improve this answer











              $endgroup$

















                2












                $begingroup$

                Let $X$ be the time of the first head, and $Y$ the time of the first tail, and $W$ the first time when a head and a tail has been flipped.



                You are right in assuming that $E[X]=frac1p$ and $E[Y]=frac1q$, But you are wrong in assuming that $W=X+Y$, that's simply not true, actually $W=max(X,Y)$.



                A possible approach. Let $A$ be the indicator variable of the event: "first coin was a head" (hence $X=1$).



                Then use $$E[W]=E[E[W | A ]] = P(A=1) E[W|A=1]+P(A=0) E[W|A=0]=\=p(E[Y]+1)+q(E[X]+1)$$






                share|cite|improve this answer











                $endgroup$















                  2












                  2








                  2





                  $begingroup$

                  Let $X$ be the time of the first head, and $Y$ the time of the first tail, and $W$ the first time when a head and a tail has been flipped.



                  You are right in assuming that $E[X]=frac1p$ and $E[Y]=frac1q$, But you are wrong in assuming that $W=X+Y$, that's simply not true, actually $W=max(X,Y)$.



                  A possible approach. Let $A$ be the indicator variable of the event: "first coin was a head" (hence $X=1$).



                  Then use $$E[W]=E[E[W | A ]] = P(A=1) E[W|A=1]+P(A=0) E[W|A=0]=\=p(E[Y]+1)+q(E[X]+1)$$






                  share|cite|improve this answer











                  $endgroup$



                  Let $X$ be the time of the first head, and $Y$ the time of the first tail, and $W$ the first time when a head and a tail has been flipped.



                  You are right in assuming that $E[X]=frac1p$ and $E[Y]=frac1q$, But you are wrong in assuming that $W=X+Y$, that's simply not true, actually $W=max(X,Y)$.



                  A possible approach. Let $A$ be the indicator variable of the event: "first coin was a head" (hence $X=1$).



                  Then use $$E[W]=E[E[W | A ]] = P(A=1) E[W|A=1]+P(A=0) E[W|A=0]=\=p(E[Y]+1)+q(E[X]+1)$$







                  share|cite|improve this answer














                  share|cite|improve this answer



                  share|cite|improve this answer








                  edited 2 hours ago

























                  answered 2 hours ago









                  leonbloyleonbloy

                  42.5k647108




                  42.5k647108




















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                      Tom Holland Mục lục Đầu đời và giáo dục | Sự nghiệp | Cuộc sống cá nhân | Phim tham gia | Giải thưởng và đề cử | Chú thích | Liên kết ngoài | Trình đơn chuyển hướngProfile“Person Details for Thomas Stanley Holland, "England and Wales Birth Registration Index, 1837-2008" — FamilySearch.org”"Meet Tom Holland... the 16-year-old star of The Impossible""Schoolboy actor Tom Holland finds himself in Oscar contention for role in tsunami drama"“Naomi Watts on the Prince William and Harry's reaction to her film about the late Princess Diana”lưu trữ"Holland and Pflueger Are West End's Two New 'Billy Elliots'""I'm so envious of my son, the movie star! British writer Dominic Holland's spent 20 years trying to crack Hollywood - but he's been beaten to it by a very unlikely rival"“Richard and Margaret Povey of Jersey, Channel Islands, UK: Information about Thomas Stanley Holland”"Tom Holland to play Billy Elliot""New Billy Elliot leaving the garage"Billy Elliot the Musical - Tom Holland - Billy"A Tale of four Billys: Tom Holland""The Feel Good Factor""Thames Christian College schoolboys join Myleene Klass for The Feelgood Factor""Government launches £600,000 arts bursaries pilot""BILLY's Chapman, Holland, Gardner & Jackson-Keen Visit Prime Minister""Elton John 'blown away' by Billy Elliot fifth birthday" (video with John's interview and fragments of Holland's performance)"First News interviews Arrietty's Tom Holland"“33rd Critics' Circle Film Awards winners”“National Board of Review Current Awards”Bản gốc"Ron Howard Whaling Tale 'In The Heart Of The Sea' Casts Tom Holland"“'Spider-Man' Finds Tom Holland to Star as New Web-Slinger”lưu trữ“Captain America: Civil War (2016)”“Film Review: ‘Captain America: Civil War’”lưu trữ“‘Captain America: Civil War’ review: Choose your own avenger”lưu trữ“The Lost City of Z reviews”“Sony Pictures and Marvel Studios Find Their 'Spider-Man' Star and Director”“‘Mary Magdalene’, ‘Current War’ & ‘Wind River’ Get 2017 Release Dates From Weinstein”“Lionsgate Unleashing Daisy Ridley & Tom Holland Starrer ‘Chaos Walking’ In Cannes”“PTA's 'Master' Leads Chicago Film Critics Nominations, UPDATED: Houston and Indiana Critics Nominations”“Nominaciones Goya 2013 Telecinco Cinema – ENG”“Jameson Empire Film Awards: Martin Freeman wins best actor for performance in The Hobbit”“34th Annual Young Artist Awards”Bản gốc“Teen Choice Awards 2016—Captain America: Civil War Leads Second Wave of Nominations”“BAFTA Film Award Nominations: ‘La La Land’ Leads Race”“Saturn Awards Nominations 2017: 'Rogue One,' 'Walking Dead' Lead”Tom HollandTom HollandTom HollandTom Hollandmedia.gettyimages.comWorldCat Identities300279794no20130442900000 0004 0355 42791085670554170004732cb16706349t(data)XX5557367