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Absolutely wonderful numerical phenomenon. Who can explain?
Maximum likelihood estimate of hypergeometric distribution parameterFinding subset of combinations which satisfy a criterionCan anyone explain one step of derivation in a branching process example?How can I predict the next number give prior history of known sequences?Can you explain this solution?Can someone explain to me why hot hand phenomenon is considered a fallacy?Can anyone explain this dependent probability statement.Is there a higher chance of winning one contest if you enter many? How can we determine when it's most mathematically favorable then?
.everyoneloves__top-leaderboard:empty,.everyoneloves__mid-leaderboard:empty,.everyoneloves__bot-mid-leaderboard:empty margin-bottom:0;
$begingroup$
I was doing some software engineering and wanted to have a thread do something in the background to basically just waste CPU time for a certain test. While I could have done something really boring like for(i < 10000000) j = 2 * i
, I ended up having the program start with $1$, and then for a million steps choose a random real number r in the interval $[0,R]$ (uniformly distributed) and multiply the result by r at each step. When $R = 2$, it converged to $0$. When $R = 3$, it exploded to infinity. So of course, the question anyone with a modicum of curiosity would ask: for what $R$ do we have the transition. And then, I tried the first number between $2$ and $3$ that we would all think of, Euler's number $e$, and sure enough, this conjecture was right. Would love to see a proof of this.
Now when I should be working, I'm instead wondering about the behavior of this script. Ironically, rather than wasting my CPUs time, I'm wasting my own time. But it's a beautiful phenomenon. I don't regret it. :)
probability stochastic-processes
$endgroup$
add a comment
|
$begingroup$
I was doing some software engineering and wanted to have a thread do something in the background to basically just waste CPU time for a certain test. While I could have done something really boring like for(i < 10000000) j = 2 * i
, I ended up having the program start with $1$, and then for a million steps choose a random real number r in the interval $[0,R]$ (uniformly distributed) and multiply the result by r at each step. When $R = 2$, it converged to $0$. When $R = 3$, it exploded to infinity. So of course, the question anyone with a modicum of curiosity would ask: for what $R$ do we have the transition. And then, I tried the first number between $2$ and $3$ that we would all think of, Euler's number $e$, and sure enough, this conjecture was right. Would love to see a proof of this.
Now when I should be working, I'm instead wondering about the behavior of this script. Ironically, rather than wasting my CPUs time, I'm wasting my own time. But it's a beautiful phenomenon. I don't regret it. :)
probability stochastic-processes
$endgroup$
1
$begingroup$
If the threshold really is $e$, I'm ready for my mind to be blown.
$endgroup$
– littleO
8 hours ago
add a comment
|
$begingroup$
I was doing some software engineering and wanted to have a thread do something in the background to basically just waste CPU time for a certain test. While I could have done something really boring like for(i < 10000000) j = 2 * i
, I ended up having the program start with $1$, and then for a million steps choose a random real number r in the interval $[0,R]$ (uniformly distributed) and multiply the result by r at each step. When $R = 2$, it converged to $0$. When $R = 3$, it exploded to infinity. So of course, the question anyone with a modicum of curiosity would ask: for what $R$ do we have the transition. And then, I tried the first number between $2$ and $3$ that we would all think of, Euler's number $e$, and sure enough, this conjecture was right. Would love to see a proof of this.
Now when I should be working, I'm instead wondering about the behavior of this script. Ironically, rather than wasting my CPUs time, I'm wasting my own time. But it's a beautiful phenomenon. I don't regret it. :)
probability stochastic-processes
$endgroup$
I was doing some software engineering and wanted to have a thread do something in the background to basically just waste CPU time for a certain test. While I could have done something really boring like for(i < 10000000) j = 2 * i
, I ended up having the program start with $1$, and then for a million steps choose a random real number r in the interval $[0,R]$ (uniformly distributed) and multiply the result by r at each step. When $R = 2$, it converged to $0$. When $R = 3$, it exploded to infinity. So of course, the question anyone with a modicum of curiosity would ask: for what $R$ do we have the transition. And then, I tried the first number between $2$ and $3$ that we would all think of, Euler's number $e$, and sure enough, this conjecture was right. Would love to see a proof of this.
Now when I should be working, I'm instead wondering about the behavior of this script. Ironically, rather than wasting my CPUs time, I'm wasting my own time. But it's a beautiful phenomenon. I don't regret it. :)
probability stochastic-processes
probability stochastic-processes
edited 8 hours ago
Sil
6,0412 gold badges17 silver badges46 bronze badges
6,0412 gold badges17 silver badges46 bronze badges
asked 8 hours ago
Jake MirraJake Mirra
1789 bronze badges
1789 bronze badges
1
$begingroup$
If the threshold really is $e$, I'm ready for my mind to be blown.
$endgroup$
– littleO
8 hours ago
add a comment
|
1
$begingroup$
If the threshold really is $e$, I'm ready for my mind to be blown.
$endgroup$
– littleO
8 hours ago
1
1
$begingroup$
If the threshold really is $e$, I'm ready for my mind to be blown.
$endgroup$
– littleO
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
If the threshold really is $e$, I'm ready for my mind to be blown.
$endgroup$
– littleO
8 hours ago
add a comment
|
2 Answers
2
active
oldest
votes
$begingroup$
EDIT: I saw that you solved it yourself. Congrats! I'm posting this anyway because I was most of the way through typing it when your answer hit. :)
Infinite products are hard, in general; infinite sums are better, because we have lots of tools at our disposal for handling them. Fortunately, we can always turn a product into a sum via a logarithm.
Let $X_i sim operatornameUniform(0, r)$, and let $Y_n = prod_i=1^n X_i$. Note that $log(Y_n) = sum_i=1^n log(X_i)$. The eventual emergence of $e$ as important is already somewhat clear, even though we haven't really done anything yet.
The more useful formulation here is that $fraclog(Y_n)n = frac 1 n sum log(X_i)$, because we know from the Strong Law of Large Numbers that the right side converges almost surely to $mathbb E[log(X_i)]$. We have
$$mathbb E log(X_i) = int_0^r log(x) cdot frac 1 r , textrm d x = frac 1 r [x log(x) - x] bigg|_0^r = log(r) - 1.$$
If $r < e$, then $log(Y_n) / n to c < 0$, which implies that $log(Y_n) to -infty$, hence $Y_n to 0$. Similarly, if $r > e$, then $log(Y_n) / n to c > 0$, whence $Y_n to infty$. The fun case is: what happens when $r = e$?
$endgroup$
1
$begingroup$
I accepted your answer, as it is an excellent explanation! Thank you for taking the time!
$endgroup$
– Jake Mirra
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
Was thinking a bit about your question of "what happens when r = e", and all I can say is that, once you look at it on a logarithmic scale, it's a weird, sort of lopsided random walk through the reals where you sometimes take giant steps backwards and then lots of small steps forward.
$endgroup$
– Jake Mirra
7 hours ago
$begingroup$
Yep! And you can convince yourself that even though those increments are unbounded (on the negative side), they still have a finite variance...
$endgroup$
– Aaron Montgomery
7 hours ago
$begingroup$
@AaronMontgomery - what happens when $r=e$? I am not good with the details of probability theory. Does $Y_n$ converge (to $1$) or does it not converge? And what has the finite variance (of $log X_i$) got to do with it? Intuitively I would guess the sequence does not converge, but your mention of finite variance seems to hint that it would...
$endgroup$
– antkam
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
When $r = e$, the fact that we are taking an average of the $log(X_i)$ variables (which have finite variance) means that we can use the Central Limit Theorem to proceed. This implies that $sqrt n overline X$ converges (in distribution only, NOT almost surely) to a normal variable with mean $0$ and variance $sigma^2$ (i.e. the variance of $log(X_i)$), so $log(Y_n)/sqrt n$ does the same. Consequently, $Y_n$ just becomes diffuse, and on individual realizations it will wander, much like an ordinary random walk will do.
$endgroup$
– Aaron Montgomery
5 hours ago
add a comment
|
$begingroup$
I found the answer! One starts with the uniform distribution on $ [0,R] $. The natural logarithm pushes this distribution forward to a distribution on $ (-infty, ln(R) ] $ with density function given by $ p(y) = e^y / R, y in (-infty, ln(R)] $. The expected value of this distribution is $ int_-infty^ln(R)cfracy e^yR dy = ln(R) - 1 $. Solving for zero gives the answer to the riddle! Love it!
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add a comment
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2 Answers
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2 Answers
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$begingroup$
EDIT: I saw that you solved it yourself. Congrats! I'm posting this anyway because I was most of the way through typing it when your answer hit. :)
Infinite products are hard, in general; infinite sums are better, because we have lots of tools at our disposal for handling them. Fortunately, we can always turn a product into a sum via a logarithm.
Let $X_i sim operatornameUniform(0, r)$, and let $Y_n = prod_i=1^n X_i$. Note that $log(Y_n) = sum_i=1^n log(X_i)$. The eventual emergence of $e$ as important is already somewhat clear, even though we haven't really done anything yet.
The more useful formulation here is that $fraclog(Y_n)n = frac 1 n sum log(X_i)$, because we know from the Strong Law of Large Numbers that the right side converges almost surely to $mathbb E[log(X_i)]$. We have
$$mathbb E log(X_i) = int_0^r log(x) cdot frac 1 r , textrm d x = frac 1 r [x log(x) - x] bigg|_0^r = log(r) - 1.$$
If $r < e$, then $log(Y_n) / n to c < 0$, which implies that $log(Y_n) to -infty$, hence $Y_n to 0$. Similarly, if $r > e$, then $log(Y_n) / n to c > 0$, whence $Y_n to infty$. The fun case is: what happens when $r = e$?
$endgroup$
1
$begingroup$
I accepted your answer, as it is an excellent explanation! Thank you for taking the time!
$endgroup$
– Jake Mirra
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
Was thinking a bit about your question of "what happens when r = e", and all I can say is that, once you look at it on a logarithmic scale, it's a weird, sort of lopsided random walk through the reals where you sometimes take giant steps backwards and then lots of small steps forward.
$endgroup$
– Jake Mirra
7 hours ago
$begingroup$
Yep! And you can convince yourself that even though those increments are unbounded (on the negative side), they still have a finite variance...
$endgroup$
– Aaron Montgomery
7 hours ago
$begingroup$
@AaronMontgomery - what happens when $r=e$? I am not good with the details of probability theory. Does $Y_n$ converge (to $1$) or does it not converge? And what has the finite variance (of $log X_i$) got to do with it? Intuitively I would guess the sequence does not converge, but your mention of finite variance seems to hint that it would...
$endgroup$
– antkam
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
When $r = e$, the fact that we are taking an average of the $log(X_i)$ variables (which have finite variance) means that we can use the Central Limit Theorem to proceed. This implies that $sqrt n overline X$ converges (in distribution only, NOT almost surely) to a normal variable with mean $0$ and variance $sigma^2$ (i.e. the variance of $log(X_i)$), so $log(Y_n)/sqrt n$ does the same. Consequently, $Y_n$ just becomes diffuse, and on individual realizations it will wander, much like an ordinary random walk will do.
$endgroup$
– Aaron Montgomery
5 hours ago
add a comment
|
$begingroup$
EDIT: I saw that you solved it yourself. Congrats! I'm posting this anyway because I was most of the way through typing it when your answer hit. :)
Infinite products are hard, in general; infinite sums are better, because we have lots of tools at our disposal for handling them. Fortunately, we can always turn a product into a sum via a logarithm.
Let $X_i sim operatornameUniform(0, r)$, and let $Y_n = prod_i=1^n X_i$. Note that $log(Y_n) = sum_i=1^n log(X_i)$. The eventual emergence of $e$ as important is already somewhat clear, even though we haven't really done anything yet.
The more useful formulation here is that $fraclog(Y_n)n = frac 1 n sum log(X_i)$, because we know from the Strong Law of Large Numbers that the right side converges almost surely to $mathbb E[log(X_i)]$. We have
$$mathbb E log(X_i) = int_0^r log(x) cdot frac 1 r , textrm d x = frac 1 r [x log(x) - x] bigg|_0^r = log(r) - 1.$$
If $r < e$, then $log(Y_n) / n to c < 0$, which implies that $log(Y_n) to -infty$, hence $Y_n to 0$. Similarly, if $r > e$, then $log(Y_n) / n to c > 0$, whence $Y_n to infty$. The fun case is: what happens when $r = e$?
$endgroup$
1
$begingroup$
I accepted your answer, as it is an excellent explanation! Thank you for taking the time!
$endgroup$
– Jake Mirra
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
Was thinking a bit about your question of "what happens when r = e", and all I can say is that, once you look at it on a logarithmic scale, it's a weird, sort of lopsided random walk through the reals where you sometimes take giant steps backwards and then lots of small steps forward.
$endgroup$
– Jake Mirra
7 hours ago
$begingroup$
Yep! And you can convince yourself that even though those increments are unbounded (on the negative side), they still have a finite variance...
$endgroup$
– Aaron Montgomery
7 hours ago
$begingroup$
@AaronMontgomery - what happens when $r=e$? I am not good with the details of probability theory. Does $Y_n$ converge (to $1$) or does it not converge? And what has the finite variance (of $log X_i$) got to do with it? Intuitively I would guess the sequence does not converge, but your mention of finite variance seems to hint that it would...
$endgroup$
– antkam
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
When $r = e$, the fact that we are taking an average of the $log(X_i)$ variables (which have finite variance) means that we can use the Central Limit Theorem to proceed. This implies that $sqrt n overline X$ converges (in distribution only, NOT almost surely) to a normal variable with mean $0$ and variance $sigma^2$ (i.e. the variance of $log(X_i)$), so $log(Y_n)/sqrt n$ does the same. Consequently, $Y_n$ just becomes diffuse, and on individual realizations it will wander, much like an ordinary random walk will do.
$endgroup$
– Aaron Montgomery
5 hours ago
add a comment
|
$begingroup$
EDIT: I saw that you solved it yourself. Congrats! I'm posting this anyway because I was most of the way through typing it when your answer hit. :)
Infinite products are hard, in general; infinite sums are better, because we have lots of tools at our disposal for handling them. Fortunately, we can always turn a product into a sum via a logarithm.
Let $X_i sim operatornameUniform(0, r)$, and let $Y_n = prod_i=1^n X_i$. Note that $log(Y_n) = sum_i=1^n log(X_i)$. The eventual emergence of $e$ as important is already somewhat clear, even though we haven't really done anything yet.
The more useful formulation here is that $fraclog(Y_n)n = frac 1 n sum log(X_i)$, because we know from the Strong Law of Large Numbers that the right side converges almost surely to $mathbb E[log(X_i)]$. We have
$$mathbb E log(X_i) = int_0^r log(x) cdot frac 1 r , textrm d x = frac 1 r [x log(x) - x] bigg|_0^r = log(r) - 1.$$
If $r < e$, then $log(Y_n) / n to c < 0$, which implies that $log(Y_n) to -infty$, hence $Y_n to 0$. Similarly, if $r > e$, then $log(Y_n) / n to c > 0$, whence $Y_n to infty$. The fun case is: what happens when $r = e$?
$endgroup$
EDIT: I saw that you solved it yourself. Congrats! I'm posting this anyway because I was most of the way through typing it when your answer hit. :)
Infinite products are hard, in general; infinite sums are better, because we have lots of tools at our disposal for handling them. Fortunately, we can always turn a product into a sum via a logarithm.
Let $X_i sim operatornameUniform(0, r)$, and let $Y_n = prod_i=1^n X_i$. Note that $log(Y_n) = sum_i=1^n log(X_i)$. The eventual emergence of $e$ as important is already somewhat clear, even though we haven't really done anything yet.
The more useful formulation here is that $fraclog(Y_n)n = frac 1 n sum log(X_i)$, because we know from the Strong Law of Large Numbers that the right side converges almost surely to $mathbb E[log(X_i)]$. We have
$$mathbb E log(X_i) = int_0^r log(x) cdot frac 1 r , textrm d x = frac 1 r [x log(x) - x] bigg|_0^r = log(r) - 1.$$
If $r < e$, then $log(Y_n) / n to c < 0$, which implies that $log(Y_n) to -infty$, hence $Y_n to 0$. Similarly, if $r > e$, then $log(Y_n) / n to c > 0$, whence $Y_n to infty$. The fun case is: what happens when $r = e$?
edited 7 hours ago
answered 8 hours ago
Aaron MontgomeryAaron Montgomery
5,0825 silver badges23 bronze badges
5,0825 silver badges23 bronze badges
1
$begingroup$
I accepted your answer, as it is an excellent explanation! Thank you for taking the time!
$endgroup$
– Jake Mirra
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
Was thinking a bit about your question of "what happens when r = e", and all I can say is that, once you look at it on a logarithmic scale, it's a weird, sort of lopsided random walk through the reals where you sometimes take giant steps backwards and then lots of small steps forward.
$endgroup$
– Jake Mirra
7 hours ago
$begingroup$
Yep! And you can convince yourself that even though those increments are unbounded (on the negative side), they still have a finite variance...
$endgroup$
– Aaron Montgomery
7 hours ago
$begingroup$
@AaronMontgomery - what happens when $r=e$? I am not good with the details of probability theory. Does $Y_n$ converge (to $1$) or does it not converge? And what has the finite variance (of $log X_i$) got to do with it? Intuitively I would guess the sequence does not converge, but your mention of finite variance seems to hint that it would...
$endgroup$
– antkam
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
When $r = e$, the fact that we are taking an average of the $log(X_i)$ variables (which have finite variance) means that we can use the Central Limit Theorem to proceed. This implies that $sqrt n overline X$ converges (in distribution only, NOT almost surely) to a normal variable with mean $0$ and variance $sigma^2$ (i.e. the variance of $log(X_i)$), so $log(Y_n)/sqrt n$ does the same. Consequently, $Y_n$ just becomes diffuse, and on individual realizations it will wander, much like an ordinary random walk will do.
$endgroup$
– Aaron Montgomery
5 hours ago
add a comment
|
1
$begingroup$
I accepted your answer, as it is an excellent explanation! Thank you for taking the time!
$endgroup$
– Jake Mirra
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
Was thinking a bit about your question of "what happens when r = e", and all I can say is that, once you look at it on a logarithmic scale, it's a weird, sort of lopsided random walk through the reals where you sometimes take giant steps backwards and then lots of small steps forward.
$endgroup$
– Jake Mirra
7 hours ago
$begingroup$
Yep! And you can convince yourself that even though those increments are unbounded (on the negative side), they still have a finite variance...
$endgroup$
– Aaron Montgomery
7 hours ago
$begingroup$
@AaronMontgomery - what happens when $r=e$? I am not good with the details of probability theory. Does $Y_n$ converge (to $1$) or does it not converge? And what has the finite variance (of $log X_i$) got to do with it? Intuitively I would guess the sequence does not converge, but your mention of finite variance seems to hint that it would...
$endgroup$
– antkam
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
When $r = e$, the fact that we are taking an average of the $log(X_i)$ variables (which have finite variance) means that we can use the Central Limit Theorem to proceed. This implies that $sqrt n overline X$ converges (in distribution only, NOT almost surely) to a normal variable with mean $0$ and variance $sigma^2$ (i.e. the variance of $log(X_i)$), so $log(Y_n)/sqrt n$ does the same. Consequently, $Y_n$ just becomes diffuse, and on individual realizations it will wander, much like an ordinary random walk will do.
$endgroup$
– Aaron Montgomery
5 hours ago
1
1
$begingroup$
I accepted your answer, as it is an excellent explanation! Thank you for taking the time!
$endgroup$
– Jake Mirra
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
I accepted your answer, as it is an excellent explanation! Thank you for taking the time!
$endgroup$
– Jake Mirra
8 hours ago
$begingroup$
Was thinking a bit about your question of "what happens when r = e", and all I can say is that, once you look at it on a logarithmic scale, it's a weird, sort of lopsided random walk through the reals where you sometimes take giant steps backwards and then lots of small steps forward.
$endgroup$
– Jake Mirra
7 hours ago
$begingroup$
Was thinking a bit about your question of "what happens when r = e", and all I can say is that, once you look at it on a logarithmic scale, it's a weird, sort of lopsided random walk through the reals where you sometimes take giant steps backwards and then lots of small steps forward.
$endgroup$
– Jake Mirra
7 hours ago
$begingroup$
Yep! And you can convince yourself that even though those increments are unbounded (on the negative side), they still have a finite variance...
$endgroup$
– Aaron Montgomery
7 hours ago
$begingroup$
Yep! And you can convince yourself that even though those increments are unbounded (on the negative side), they still have a finite variance...
$endgroup$
– Aaron Montgomery
7 hours ago
$begingroup$
@AaronMontgomery - what happens when $r=e$? I am not good with the details of probability theory. Does $Y_n$ converge (to $1$) or does it not converge? And what has the finite variance (of $log X_i$) got to do with it? Intuitively I would guess the sequence does not converge, but your mention of finite variance seems to hint that it would...
$endgroup$
– antkam
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
@AaronMontgomery - what happens when $r=e$? I am not good with the details of probability theory. Does $Y_n$ converge (to $1$) or does it not converge? And what has the finite variance (of $log X_i$) got to do with it? Intuitively I would guess the sequence does not converge, but your mention of finite variance seems to hint that it would...
$endgroup$
– antkam
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
When $r = e$, the fact that we are taking an average of the $log(X_i)$ variables (which have finite variance) means that we can use the Central Limit Theorem to proceed. This implies that $sqrt n overline X$ converges (in distribution only, NOT almost surely) to a normal variable with mean $0$ and variance $sigma^2$ (i.e. the variance of $log(X_i)$), so $log(Y_n)/sqrt n$ does the same. Consequently, $Y_n$ just becomes diffuse, and on individual realizations it will wander, much like an ordinary random walk will do.
$endgroup$
– Aaron Montgomery
5 hours ago
$begingroup$
When $r = e$, the fact that we are taking an average of the $log(X_i)$ variables (which have finite variance) means that we can use the Central Limit Theorem to proceed. This implies that $sqrt n overline X$ converges (in distribution only, NOT almost surely) to a normal variable with mean $0$ and variance $sigma^2$ (i.e. the variance of $log(X_i)$), so $log(Y_n)/sqrt n$ does the same. Consequently, $Y_n$ just becomes diffuse, and on individual realizations it will wander, much like an ordinary random walk will do.
$endgroup$
– Aaron Montgomery
5 hours ago
add a comment
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$begingroup$
I found the answer! One starts with the uniform distribution on $ [0,R] $. The natural logarithm pushes this distribution forward to a distribution on $ (-infty, ln(R) ] $ with density function given by $ p(y) = e^y / R, y in (-infty, ln(R)] $. The expected value of this distribution is $ int_-infty^ln(R)cfracy e^yR dy = ln(R) - 1 $. Solving for zero gives the answer to the riddle! Love it!
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I found the answer! One starts with the uniform distribution on $ [0,R] $. The natural logarithm pushes this distribution forward to a distribution on $ (-infty, ln(R) ] $ with density function given by $ p(y) = e^y / R, y in (-infty, ln(R)] $. The expected value of this distribution is $ int_-infty^ln(R)cfracy e^yR dy = ln(R) - 1 $. Solving for zero gives the answer to the riddle! Love it!
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$begingroup$
I found the answer! One starts with the uniform distribution on $ [0,R] $. The natural logarithm pushes this distribution forward to a distribution on $ (-infty, ln(R) ] $ with density function given by $ p(y) = e^y / R, y in (-infty, ln(R)] $. The expected value of this distribution is $ int_-infty^ln(R)cfracy e^yR dy = ln(R) - 1 $. Solving for zero gives the answer to the riddle! Love it!
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I found the answer! One starts with the uniform distribution on $ [0,R] $. The natural logarithm pushes this distribution forward to a distribution on $ (-infty, ln(R) ] $ with density function given by $ p(y) = e^y / R, y in (-infty, ln(R)] $. The expected value of this distribution is $ int_-infty^ln(R)cfracy e^yR dy = ln(R) - 1 $. Solving for zero gives the answer to the riddle! Love it!
answered 8 hours ago
Jake MirraJake Mirra
1789 bronze badges
1789 bronze badges
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1
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If the threshold really is $e$, I'm ready for my mind to be blown.
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– littleO
8 hours ago